The "BIPAC Daily" Political Analysis Newsletter

The following political analysis is from Business-Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC) Political Analyst Jim Ellis. BIPAC is an independent, bipartisan organization. It is provided solely as a membership benefit to the organization's 300-plus member companies and trade associations. The views and opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of any particular member or the organization generally.

Recent Posts

Mississippi Governor: New Data   10/23/2019
"Mississippi Governor:  New Data" - by Jim Ellis  October 23, 2019   One of the more intriguing current elections is the Mississippi Governor's campaign. Here, GOP Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves is attempting to continue the Magnolia State Republican advantage, sinc... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/23/2019 10:45:41 AM

Rep. Rooney to Retire; Buttigieg Makes Move   10/22/2019
"Rep. Rooney to Retire; Buttigieg Makes Move" - by Jim Ellis  October 22, 2019   FL-19 Two-term Florida Rep. Francis Rooney (R-Naples) announced over the weekend that he would not seek election to a third term next year, thus FL-19 becomes the 27th open House s... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/22/2019 10:12:40 AM

Third Quarter Dollars   10/21/2019
"Third Quarter Dollars" - by Jim Ellis  October 21, 2019   The campaign financial disclosure reports are now published and, as usual, the Daily Kos Elections site has compiled a cumulative activity summary. The list of top fundraisers includes some familiar names,... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/21/2019 9:33:14 AM

MD-7: Succeeding Rep. Cummings   10/18/2019
"MD-7:  Succeeding Rep. Cummings" - by Jim Ellis  October 18, 2019   The death of veteran Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore) yesterday creates an obvious vacancy in Maryland's 7th Congressional District, which is anchored in the city of Baltimore. Gov. Lar... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/18/2019 10:38:04 AM

KS-2: A Battle Brewing   10/16/2019
"KS-2:  A Brewing Battle" - by Jim Ellis  October 16, 2019   Yesterday, former legislative aide Abbie Hodgson, the only announced Democratic candidate in the KS-2 congressional race, withdrew her challenge to freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka) because she... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/16/2019 8:57:56 AM

New North Carolina State Poll   10/15/2019
"New North Carolina State Poll" - by Jim Ellis  October 15, 2019   A new Meredith College political survey (9/29-10/7; 998 NC registered voters) shows electoral weakness for Sen. Thom Tillis (R) as he seeks a second term next year. The poll places the first-term US... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/15/2019 10:25:09 AM

Edwards Forced to Run-off   10/14/2019
"Edwards Forced to Run-off" - by Jim Ellis  October 14, 2019   Saturday's Louisiana statewide open primary election found first-term Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) failing to win re-election outright, meaning he and the second-place finisher, businessman Eddie Rispo... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/14/2019 9:01:20 AM

Rep. Lowey to Retire   10/11/2019
"Rep. Nita Lowey to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  October 11, 2019   House Appropriations Committee Chair Nita Lowey (D-NY), who was first elected in 1988 and is now 82 years old, announced that she will not seek re-election next year. She joins Reps. Jose Serrano (D-Bro... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/11/2019 8:45:27 AM

Biden Big in North Carolina   10/10/2019
"Biden Big in North Carolina" - by Jim Ellis  October 10, 2019   Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling just released their latest North Carolina survey (10/4-6; 963 NC likely voters; 410 NC likely Democratic primary voters) yesterday, which projects a two-person race... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/10/2019 8:42:11 AM

Warren Up, or Not?   10/9/2019
"Warren Up, or Not?" - by Jim Ellis  October 9, 2019   The Market Watch publication carried a story that the Drudge Report included on their daily national site yesterday indicating that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) had topped former Vice President Joe Biden in fou... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/9/2019 8:21:02 AM

Impeachment in the States   10/8/2019
"Impeachment in the States" - by Jim Ellis  October 8, 2019   The Civiqs polling firm, as covered in the Daily Kos Elections site, has been testing all 50 states about impeachment in a national tracking survey that attracted 150,070 online respondents from May 16 t... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/8/2019 9:49:20 AM

Getting Closer   10/7/2019
"Getting Closer" - by Jim Ellis  October 7, 2019   At this point, Democratic presidential primary patterns are beginning to reveal themselves.    The February First Four states are becoming a hodgepodge of political strength with both Sens. Elizab... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/7/2019 8:41:31 AM

Hunter Reeling   10/4/2019
"Hunter Reeling" - by Jim Ellis  October 4, 2019   In addition to his legal woes, indicted California Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) now appears to have severe political problems according to a new just-released CA-50 district study.   A Survey USA poll... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/4/2019 8:45:13 AM

The Politics of Scheduling   10/3/2019
"The Politics of Scheduling" - by Jim Ellis  October 3, 2019   Earlier, it was reported that Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers (D) is going to re-schedule the special election to replace resigned Congressman Sean Duffy (R-Wausau), and now we have more information. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/3/2019 9:43:12 AM

Underestimating Sanders   10/2/2019
"Underestimating Sanders" - by Jim Ellis  October 2, 2019   Yesterday's major political campaign story is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) releasing his third quarter financial receipts, which exceeded $25.2 million for the previous 12-week period. The only other can... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/2/2019 9:07:11 AM

Collins Resigns; Thornberry to Retire   10/1/2019
"Collins Resigns; Thornberry to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  October 1, 2019   NY-27 Reportedly planning to plead guilty to an insider trading charge after being indicted last year, Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) resigned his seat in the House yesterday officially inform... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/1/2019 9:48:32 AM

Qualifying Already Underway   9/30/2019
"Qualifying Already Underway" - by Jim Ellis  September 30, 2019   The Democratic National Committee had barely announced the new qualification requirements for the November and December presidential debates when three candidates immediately proved they met the pol... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/30/2019 8:35:51 AM

CA-50: Issa Announces   9/27/2019
"CA-50:  Issa Announces" - by Jim Ellis  September 27, 2019   Yesterday, as expected, former California Congressman Darrell Issa (R) announced that he will enter the state's 50th District jungle primary against indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine), but t... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/27/2019 8:53:58 AM

Lone Star Status   9/26/2019
"Lone Star Status" - by Jim Ellis  September 26, 2019   Though the 2020 election is more than a year away, we can already see that the state of Texas is going to be the key to determining whether the Republicans will have a chance to re-claim the House majority nex... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/26/2019 9:43:30 AM

Impeachment Politics   9/25/2019
"Impeachment Politics" - by Jim Ellis  September 25, 2019   With the House beginning the impeachment inquiry, it is a good time to overlay the political map regarding those Democratic members who may find themselves in a difficult position as a result of this proce... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/25/2019 11:30:52 AM

Warren Surges in California   9/24/2019
"Warren Surges in California" - by Jim Ellis  September 24, 2019   The Capitol Weekly firm in California has been tracking the Golden State electorate monthly since April, and their September data shows a significant change from August. Now, it is Sen. Elizabeth Wa... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/24/2019 9:26:45 AM

Iowa: Warren Overtakes Biden   9/23/2019
"Iowa:  Warren Overtakes Biden" - by Jim Ellis  September 23, 2019   Des Moines-based Selzer & Company, largely regarded as the most accurate pollster of the Iowa electorate, just released their latest data for the Des Moines Register newspaper (9/14-18; 6... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/23/2019 8:59:02 AM

Delegate Projections   9/20/2019
"Delegate Projections" - by Jim Ellis  September 20, 2019   Recent polling data has been released in eleven Democratic presidential primary states that allows us to make rudimentary delegate vote calculation projections as to where the top candidates stand in the n... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/20/2019 9:07:58 AM

Iowa: Midwesterners Gain   9/19/2019
"Iowa:  Midwesterners Gain" - by Jim Ellis  September 19, 2019   While South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar are lagging in the polls nationally, new data from Iowa may be providing them each with a ray of hope.   Hawkey... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/19/2019 9:41:02 AM

Harris Down in California Poll   9/18/2019
"Harris Down in California Poll" - by Jim Ellis  September 18, 2019   Emerson College just released their new poll of the California Democratic electorate (9/13-16; 424 CA likely Democratic primary voters) and the research finds Sen. Kamala Harris (D) dropping well... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/18/2019 8:40:33 AM

Probing the Second Choice   9/17/2019
"Probing the Second Choice" - by Jim Ellis  September 17, 2019   The Morning Consult organization released their post-debate survey and it shows former Vice President Joe Biden stabilizing his lead over the Democratic presidential field. Arguably the contender who... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/17/2019 9:28:58 AM

The Open Seat Status   9/16/2019
"The Open Seat Status" - by Jim Ellis  September 16, 2019   With US House retirements coming in bunches, it can be confusing about how many open seats currently exist for the 2020 cycle, and where they stand in terms of political projections. Now that the two North... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/16/2019 9:29:31 AM

Multiple Choice   9/13/2019
"Multiple Choice" - by Jim Ellis  September 13, 2019   The international polling firm YouGov for The Economist magazine just completed a major 86-question survey of 1,500 US adults (9/8-10; online through an opt-in panel), 1,182 of whom are registered voters and fo... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/13/2019 9:13:52 AM

North Carolina Polling Review   9/12/2019
"North Carolina Polling Review" - by Jim Ellis  September 12, 2019   The recent North Carolina special elections' polling appears slightly flawed, containing a pattern that came to the forefront in the previous presidential race. The weakness: under-estimating... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/12/2019 9:45:48 AM

NC Specials: Republican Sweep   9/11/2019
"NC Specials:  Republican Sweep" - by Jim Ellis  September 11, 2019   Republican special election candidates Greg Murphy and Dan Bishop won their respective congressional campaigns last night in different parts of North Carolina.    Mr. Murph... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/11/2019 9:45:39 AM

The First Four Scramble   9/10/2019
"The First Four Scramble" - by Jim Ellis  September 10, 2019   The YouGov international polling organization conducted four simultaneous surveys in the states whose electorates will cast presidential nominating ballots in February of next year, referred to in the c... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/10/2019 10:42:21 AM

NC Special Elections Decided Tomorrow   9/9/2019
"NC Special Elections Decided Tomorrow" - by Jim Ellis  September 9, 2019   Voters in eastern and south-central North Carolina will go to the polls tomorrow to fill the state's two vacant congressional seats. The 3rd Congressional District is open because Rep.... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/9/2019 8:58:32 AM

Replacing Sen. Isakson   9/6/2019
"Replacing Sen. Isakson" - by Jim Ellis  September 6, 2019   Political chatter about the new Georgia Senate race is becoming prevalent. As we know, last week Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) announced that he will resign at the end of this year due to health problem... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/6/2019 8:30:52 AM

Three More to Retire   9/5/2019
"Three More to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  September 5, 2019   Yet another Texas Republican House member has decided not to seek re-election next year, but an additional two Representatives from other states, including the second-longest serving member and a 20-year De... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/5/2019 10:03:24 AM

Kennedy Crushing   9/4/2019
"Kennedy Crushing" - by Jim Ellis  September 4, 2019   A just released Change Research poll of the Massachusetts electorate (8/25-28; 1,008 MA registered voters; 808 MA Democratic primary voters; online) conducted for the Commonwealth Magazine finds Rep. Joseph P.... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/4/2019 9:26:26 AM

Rep. Shimkus to Retire   9/3/2019
"Rep. Shimkus to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  September 3, 2019   Twelve-term Illinois Rep. John Shimkus (R-Collinsville), a key member of the House Energy & Commerce Committee, announced over the Labor Day weekend that he will not seek re-election next year, becomi... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/3/2019 9:42:37 AM

Ex-Rep. Issa Forms Exploratory   8/30/2019
"Ex-Rep. Issa Forms Exploratory" - by Jim Ellis  August 30, 2019   Ex-California US Rep. Darrell Issa, who represented the state's 49th CD for 18 years, just filed a new congressional exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission. But, he is not lo... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/30/2019 8:37:02 AM

Succeeding Sen. Isakson   8/29/2019
"Succeeding Sen. Isakson" - by Jim Ellis  August 29, 2019   Yesterday, Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson (R), first elected to the Senate in 2004 after spending six years in the US House and 18 years in the Georgia legislature, announced that he will resign his seat at y... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/29/2019 10:47:24 AM

Reeves Wins Gov Run-off   8/28/2019
"Reeves Wins Gov Run-off" - by Jim Ellis  August 28, 2019   As expected, Mississippi Lt. Governor Tate Reeves won last night's Republican gubernatorial run-off election, defeating former state Supreme Court judge Bill Waller, Jr. by a 54-46% count. During the A... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/28/2019 10:00:10 AM

Rep. Sean Duffy to Resign   8/27/2019
"Rep. Sean Duffy to Resign" - by Jim Ellis  August 27, 2019   Yesterday, five-term Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wausau) announced that he is resigning from Congress effective September 23rd. Mr. Duffy indicated his reason for leaving mid-term is that his expectant... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/27/2019 9:34:49 AM

Rep. Lamb Challenged   8/26/2019
"Rep. Lamb Challenged" - by Jim Ellis  August 26, 2019   Pennsylvania Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh), who came to recent national political prominence when he upset a Republican special election nominee and then defeated an incumbent GOP House member in a newly cre... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/26/2019 9:17:00 AM

Elector Ruling's Side Effect   8/23/2019
"Elector Ruling's Side Effect" - by Jim Ellis  August 23, 2019   Yesterday, reports were released that the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals sitting in Denver ruled in favor of a former Colorado Elector, Michael Baca, who filed a constitutional lawsuit against the... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/23/2019 9:07:29 AM

Inslee Out   8/22/2019
"Inslee Out" - by Jim Ellis  August 22, 2019   The Democratic National Committee leaders' strategy to substantially increase the presidential debate qualification requirements in order to decrease the unwieldy and bloated candidate field is working. Last night,... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/22/2019 10:31:13 AM

Nevada Data   8/21/2019
"Nevada Data" - by Jim Ellis  August 21, 2019   The Nevada Caucus is third on the presidential nomination schedule and it appears the Silver State nomination event will carry more weight than it has in past elections.    After the Iowa Caucus (Feb... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/21/2019 9:31:26 AM

The Committed Choices   8/20/2019
"The Committed Choices" - by Jim Ellis  August 20, 2019   The Pew Research Center conducted a national poll, of which many Democratic presidential primary questions were asked, but one was particularly interesting.   The survey was taken from a univers... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/20/2019 8:26:54 AM

Kennedy Considering   8/19/2019
"Kennedy Considering" - by Jim Ellis  August 19, 2019   Consistent reports throughout this year suggesting that Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey (D) is going to face a serious 2020 Democratic primary may well come to fruition. As has been the case for several weeks, Mr... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/19/2019 8:20:43 AM

Warren Ahead in Iowa and Wisconsin   8/16/2019
"Warren Ahead in Iowa and Wisconsin" - by Jim Ellis  August 16, 2019   The Change Research organization, which has previously conducted simultaneous multi-state polling within the same sampling period just repeated their process. This time, the firm surveyed likely... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/16/2019 9:17:06 AM

September Debates: In and Out   8/15/2019
"September Debate:  In and Out" - by Jim Ellis  August 15, 2019   It appears the Democratic National Committee's move to increase the presidential debate qualifications in order to decrease the number of participants is working.   With the fir... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/15/2019 9:36:49 AM

Senate: The Latest   8/14/2019
"Senate:  The Latest" - by Jim Ellis  August 14, 2019   New developments are occurring in 2020 Senate races across the country and several are apparently unofficially set for the general election. Below is a recap:   Alabama:  Two polls have... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/14/2019 9:30:59 AM

Polling Series: New Pattern   8/13/2019
"Polling Series:  New Pattern" - by Jim Ellis  August 13, 2019   The HarrisX polling firm just completed conducting three rolling national Democratic presidential primary polls, and while they confirm other data finding former Vice President Joe Biden leading... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/13/2019 9:43:37 AM

9th Circuit Could Force Arizona's Hand   8/12/2019
"9th Circuit Could Force Arizona's Hand" - by Jim Ellis  August 12, 2019   Soon after Republican Congresswoman Martha McSally was appointed to the Senate, a group of Arizona voters: two Democrats, a Republican, a Libertarian, and an Independent, challenged the... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/12/2019 9:03:09 AM

August Delegate Recap   8/9/2019
"August Delegate Recap" - by Jim Ellis  August 9, 2019   Several polls in key states have been released in early August, so it is a good time to again review the Democratic presidential delegate count estimate based upon the available data.   We see ne... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/9/2019 8:35:50 AM

The Open Seat Review   8/8/2019
"The Open Seat Review" - by Jim Ellis  August 8, 2019   With so many seats coming open during the past ten days, it's time to review exactly which districts will be incumbent-less for the coming election, and how many are truly competitive.   Rep.... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/8/2019 9:42:47 AM

MS Gov: Primary Results   8/7/2019
"MS-Gov:  Primary Results" - by Jim Ellis  August 7, 2019   Voters in the Magnolia State of Mississippi went to the polls yesterday to choose open race nominees for the first time in eight years. Incumbent Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is term-limited and ineligible to... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/7/2019 9:13:03 AM

And Now, Marchant   8/6/2019
"And Now, Marchant" - by Jim Ellis  August 6, 2019   The string of House retirements continued yesterday as eight-term Texas Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell/DFW area) announced that he, too, will leave the House at the end of the current term. Combined with his time... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/6/2019 9:54:33 AM

Hickenlooper: Heading Out and In?   8/5/2019
"Hickenlooper:  Heading Out and In?" - by Jim Ellis  August 5, 2019   Some politicos are saying that former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is poised to end his failed presidential campaign and return home to challenge Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). The speculation... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/5/2019 8:53:39 AM

And, Still Another   8/2/2019
"And, Still Another" - by Jim Ellis  August 2, 2019   The House Republican retirements keep coming. Now, three-term Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) announced last night that he will not seek re-election, risking the truest swing seat in the Texas delegation. Mr. Hur... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/2/2019 9:28:40 AM

Seven State Polls   8/1/2019
"Seven State Polls" - by Jim Ellis  August 1, 2019   In the latter half of July, several different pollsters conducted Democratic presidential primary polls in seven important primary states. In Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, California, Texas, Michigan, and... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/1/2019 10:16:19 AM

Rep. Mike Conaway to Retire   7/31/2019
"Rep. Mike Conaway to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  July 31, 2019   Apparently, the House GOP retirement cavalcade of the past week is continuing. Reports are surfacing that Texas Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Midland) has scheduled an announcement for this morning that suggest h... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/31/2019 9:49:07 AM

Another Open House Seat   7/30/2019
"Another Open House Seat" - by Jim Ellis  July 30, 2019   The announcement that Dan Coats is resigning as Director of National Intelligence and Texas Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Heath/Rockwall) being nominated to replace him creates another House open seat. Now within t... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/30/2019 10:22:01 AM

Rep. Martha Roby to Retire   7/29/2019
"Rep. Martha Roby to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  July 29, 2019   In the last week, three Republican House members made public their intention not to seek re-election including one this weekend. The action brings the grand total of open seats to 13, still a low number b... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/29/2019 9:34:20 AM

Rep. Pete Olson to Retire   7/26/2019
"Rep. Pete Olson to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  July 26, 2019   Six-term Texas Rep. Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land) announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election next year, bringing the House open seat total to an even dozen and leaving what appears to be a competiti... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/26/2019 9:45:42 AM

Rep. Mitchell to Retire   7/25/2019
"Rep. Mitchell to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  July 25, 2019   Michigan Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Dryden) who represents the eastern part of the state known as "the thumb of Michigan," announced yesterday that he will not seek a third term in the US House. &nb... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/25/2019 9:39:40 AM

Biden Rebounding   7/24/2019
"Biden Rebounding" - by Jim Ellis  July 24, 2019   Former Vice President Joe Biden is re-establishing his pre-debate lead in the Democratic presidential race according to a new Morning Consult political survey.    The poll (7/15-21; 17,285 US like... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/24/2019 9:30:39 AM

Wendy Davis to Challenge Rep. Roy   7/23/2019
"Wendy Davis to Challenge Rep. Roy" - by Jim Ellis  July 23, 2019   Late last week the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee brain trust, members of the House Majority leadership including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and most of the Texas Democratic delegati... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/23/2019 9:44:05 AM

Q2: The Money Count - House   7/22/2019
"Q2:  The Money Count - House" - by Jim Ellis  July 22, 2019   On Friday, we covered the fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for the 2020 Senate campaigns, and today we look at the House.   The Daily Kos Elections site surveyed the entire House u... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/22/2019 9:35:46 AM

Q2: The Money Count - Senate   7/19/2019
"Q2:  The Money Count - Senate" - by Jim Ellis  July 19, 2019   The second quarter campaign financials are now public, and already candidates in both parties have raised millions of dollars in preparation for hard-hitting 2020 US Senate campaigns. And, the two... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/19/2019 9:46:28 AM

California Tightening   7/18/2019
"California Tightening" - by Jim Ellis  July 18, 2019   Two new surveys of the California Democratic electorate show the presidential race tightening in the state that possesses the largest delegation to the Democratic National Convention: 416 first ballot delegate... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/18/2019 9:45:42 AM

Other Predictors   7/17/2019
"Other Predictors" - by Jim Ellis  July 17, 2019   Most of the attention surrounding the upcoming presidential campaign has revolved around polling, but other factors may be better long-term predictors of what may happen in next year's national election. &n... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/17/2019 9:49:09 AM

The Budding Five-Way Race   7/16/2019
"The Budding Five-Way Race" - by Jim Ellis  July 16, 2019   We've seen an interesting trio of polls released over the past week that tested the New Hampshire Democratic electorate all within the same relative time span. The cumulative result produced three diff... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/16/2019 9:05:20 AM

Primary Challenges   7/15/2019
"Primary Challenges" - by Jim Ellis  July 15, 2019   Controversy has been arising lately from the Congressional Black Caucus as the organization leaders are charging that the left faction Justice Democrats are isolating their members for primary challenges. But, th... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/15/2019 12:03:43 PM

The Three-State Poll   7/12/2019
"The Three-State Poll" - by Jim Ellis  July 12, 2019   Just before the July 4th holiday break Change Research conducted a series of research studies in three of the first four Democratic presidential caucus and primary states.    The firm tested e... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/12/2019 9:41:37 AM

The Trump Issues   7/11/2019
"The Trump Issues" - by Jim Ellis  July 11, 2019   International pollster YouGov surveying for The Economist magazine (7/7-9; 1,500 US adults from the YouGov opt-in Internet panel; 1,140 US registered voters; 592 likely Democratic primary voters) finds former Vice... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/11/2019 9:56:23 AM

Murphy Wins Run-Off   7/10/2019
"Murphy Wins Run-Off" - by Jim Ellis  July 10, 2019   North Carolina state Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) scored an easy 60-40% victory over Dr. Joan Perry in the special Republican congressional run-off last night, thus becoming the party nominee in a special gen... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/10/2019 10:09:41 AM

Kobach Announces in Controversy   7/9/2019
"Kobach Announces in Controversy" - by Jim Ellis  July 9, 2019   In most runs for public office, the day a candidate announces is one of the best campaign days. For former Kansas Secretary of State and 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach, yesterday... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/9/2019 10:08:19 AM

The Amash Factor   7/8/2019
"The Amash Factor" - by Jim Ellis  July 8, 2019   Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (I-Cascade Township) officially left the Republican Party as the 4th of July approached, but what does his decision mean for the 3rd District's political future?   Rep. Am... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/8/2019 10:15:40 AM

Is Sen. Markey Vulnerable?   7/3/2019
"Is Sen. Markey Vulnerable?" - by Jim Ellis  July 3, 2019   The Politico news site ran a story yesterday quoting a Massachusetts consultant saying that Sen. Ed Markey's seat "is there for the taking," and predicts the state's extremist Democratic... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/3/2019 9:45:41 AM

A Spate of Primary Challenges   7/2/2019
"A Spate of Primary Challenges" - by Jim Ellis  July 2, 2019   If you thought the 2020 cycle might feature a smaller number of primary challenge campaigns than we've seen in recent election years, then yesterday might change your opinion. No less than six combi... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/2/2019 10:37:49 AM

Poll: Biden Falling   7/1/2019
"Poll:  Biden Falling" - by Jim Ellis  July 1, 2019   The Morning Consult organization immediately went into the field after the second night of the Democratic presidential forum (6/27-28; 2,407 US self-identified Democratic registered voters) and found that f... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/1/2019 9:48:12 AM

The Next Moves   6/28/2019
"The Next Moves" - by Jim Ellis  June 28, 2019   The first Democratic candidate forum is now in the books, and the question being posed is how the various performances over the two-night process will affect the candidates' standing.   On the first... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/28/2019 9:54:15 AM

Debates Begin; Some Polls Tighten   6/27/2019
"Debates Begin; Some Polls Tighten" - by Jim Ellis  June 27, 2019   Several polls were released just before the presidential debate series began and we see some inconsistency. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the most recent national surveys, but by varying... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/27/2019 11:15:54 AM

Biden's Early Obstacle   6/26/2019
"Biden's Early Obstacle" - by Jim Ellis  June 26, 2019   One of the reasons that Hillary Clinton's campaign began to come unglued in 2016 was failing to meet expectations in the early places. Unfortunately for her, Iowa was always one of her weakest states... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/26/2019 10:40:31 AM

The 25th   6/25/2019
"The 25th" - by Jim Ellis  June 25, 2019   The Democratic presidential field has now grown as large as a professional baseball team, as the 25th candidate came forward yesterday. Former Pennsylvania Representative and defeated US Senate nominee Joe Sestak, who is e... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/25/2019 9:00:25 AM

The Early Delegate Projections   6/24/2019
"The Early Delegate Projections" - by Jim Ellis  June 24, 2019   There have been several important state polls recently released that provide us data about where the Democratic presidential candidates stand in relation to popular preference. But, that is only half... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/24/2019 10:10:21 AM

He's Back!   6/21/2019
"He's Back!" - by Jim Ellis  June 21, 2019   Yesterday, as expected and despite urgings from President Trump not to do so, former Alabama state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore announced his Senate 2020 candidacy.   We will remember Judge Moor... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/21/2019 9:47:26 AM

A Polling Dichotomy   6/20/2019
"A Polling Dichotomy" - by Jim Ellis  June 20, 2019   A new North Carolina poll from Harper Polling conducted for the state's conservative Civitas Institute (6/8-10; 500 NC likely voters) charts just how difficult it may be for any candidate to strike a balance... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/20/2019 10:29:52 AM

Florida: Biden Up   6/19/2019
"Florida:  Biden Up" - by Jim Ellis  June 19, 2019   Quinnipiac University surveyed the Florida electorate (6/12-17; 1,279 FL registered voters; 417 self-identified Democrats) and found former Vice President Joe Biden opening a substantial lead over Sens. Bern... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/19/2019 9:43:16 AM

Wyoming: Political Picture to Soon Focus   6/18/2019
"Wyoming:  Political Picture to Soon Focus" - by Jim Ellis  June 18, 2019   Sen. Mike Enzi's (R) retirement announcement last month will ignite a political firestorm in the Equality State, but not just yet. Because the state is small and the candidate fili... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/18/2019 9:49:20 AM

Rep. Susan Brooks to Retire   6/17/2019
"Rep. Susan Brooks to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  June 17, 2019   The 2019-20 House open seat count reached double-digits on Friday as Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) announced that she will not seek a fifth term next year. With Brooks retiring and Montana at-larg... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/17/2019 9:34:57 AM

California Already Tightening   6/14/2019
"California Already Tightening" - by Jim Ellis  June 14, 2019   A new large-sample Golden State poll released from the University of California at Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times (6/4-10; 2,131 CA likely Democratic primary voters from a pool of 4,435 registered... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/14/2019 9:34:05 AM

Nevada Surprises   6/13/2019
"Nevada Surprises" - by Jim Ellis  June 13, 2019   Monmouth University just released their Nevada survey (6/6-11; 370 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders from a pool of 1,333 registered Democratic and unaffiliated voters) and it contained two major surprises. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/13/2019 9:22:30 AM

Amash More Likely To Run   6/12/2019
"Amash More Likely To Run" - by Jim Ellis  June 12, 2019   Yesterday, the Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS) released an independent poll from the Practical Political Consultants organization (6/5-9; 335 MI-3 likely Republican primary voters) that f... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/12/2019 11:14:50 AM

House Opens   6/11/2019
"House Opens" - by Jim Ellis  June 11, 2019   Since the last national redistricting completed in 2011 for the 2012 election cycle, we have seen 222 US House seats come open, for a mean average of 55.5 per cycle during the eight-year period. Prior to this decade, th... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/11/2019 9:23:19 AM

Biden Beginning to Show Cracks   6/10/2019
"Biden Beginning to Show Cracks" - by Jim Ellis  June 10, 2019   Two polls were just released in critical Democratic primary states that find former Vice President Joe Biden's standing to be weaker than his latest national polling results.   In Tex... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/10/2019 9:57:59 AM

Debate Friction   6/7/2019
"Debate Friction" - by Jim Ellis  June 7, 2019   The Politico publication yesterday ran a story detailing building friction between the Democratic National Committee and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, a late-entering Democratic presidential candidate, over the committ... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/7/2019 9:42:08 AM

Texas: Polling vs. Delegates   6/6/2019
"Texas:  Polling vs. Delegates" - by Jim Ellis  June 6, 2019   Quinnipiac University released their latest Texas poll (5/29-6/4; 1,159 TX registered voters) and it finds former Vice President Joe Biden doing well in opponents' Beto O'Rourke and Joaquin... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/6/2019 10:11:40 AM

The Early Primary Cycle   6/5/2019
"The Early Primary Cycle" - by Jim Ellis  June 5, 2019   Looking at the 2020 primary calendar, it is obvious that the presidential race is already having an impact upon what is becoming an accelerated congressional campaign schedule in many states.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/5/2019 9:39:07 AM

A Counter Poll   6/4/2019
"A Counter Poll" - by Jim Ellis  June 4, 2019   The Atlantic Media & Research organization went into the field in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District and found a different special election leader than last week's JMC Analytics poll. Atlantic'... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/4/2019 9:53:41 AM

The Impeachment Landscape   6/3/2019
"The Impeachment Landscape" - by Jim Ellis  June 3, 2019   As we have seen, the impeachment drumbeat is starting to resonate more loudly since former special prosecutor Robert Mueller addressed the media. While it appears any impeachment move the House makes would... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/3/2019 11:17:06 AM

Electoral Vote Compact Hit   5/31/2019
"Electoral Vote Compact Hit" - by Jim Ellis  May 31, 2019   Recently, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) indicated one of her strongest applause lines on the presidential campaign trail comes when she talks about eliminating the Electoral College. And, the National Popul... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/31/2019 10:02:00 AM

Democrats Up Debate Ante   5/30/2019
"Democrats Up Debate Ante" - by Jim Ellis  May 30, 2019   The Democratic National Committee yesterday announced the imposition of new requirements in order for presidential candidates to participate in the series of subsequent debates to begin in mid-September. The... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/30/2019 8:52:34 AM

NC-9: The First Poll   5/29/2019
"NC-9:  The First Poll" - by Jim Ellis  May 29, 2019   The JMC Analytics survey research firm released the first special general election poll for North Carolina's 9th District, and the results may be considered surprising to some.   According... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/29/2019 8:54:11 AM

Poll: Tillis Vulnerable   5/28/2019
"Poll:  Tillis Vulnerable" - by Jim Ellis  May 28, 2019   One of the key 2020 Senate races lies in North Carolina where first-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is seeking his second term and finds himself in a shaky political situation. A new poll suggests he has vuln... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/28/2019 9:30:21 AM

Trump's Ballot Politics   5/24/2019
"Trump's Ballot Politics" - by Jim Ellis  May 24, 2019   Earlier this month, the California state Senate approved a bill that would require presidential candidates to release their tax returns in order to qualify for the Golden State ballot. A similar measure w... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/24/2019 9:56:27 AM

Votes vs. Delegates   5/23/2019
"Votes vs. Delegates" - by Jim Ellis  May 23, 2019   As the Democratic presidential field swells to 24 candidates, the first Democratic presidential forum on tap for late June in Miami, and the first votes being cast in Iowa now just over eight full months away, it... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/23/2019 10:02:51 AM

Keller Wins House Seat; Kentucky Results   5/22/2019
"Keller Wins House Seat; Kentucky Results" - by Jim Ellis  May 22, 2019   Pennsylvania state Rep. Fred Keller (R-Mifflinburg) scored a 68-32% victory over Democrat Marc Friedenburg in last's night special congressional election to fill resigned-Rep. Tom Marino&... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/22/2019 9:53:41 AM

Amash Challenged   5/21/2019
"Amash Challenged" - by Jim Ellis  May 21, 2019   Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) has just drawn a major Republican primary challenge, the announcement timing influenced because of his call for impeaching President Trump. Rep. Amash is the first... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/21/2019 8:09:41 AM

The Scorecard - Part II   5/20/2019
"The Scorecard - Part II" - by Jim Ellis  May 20, 2019   Today we continue with our overview of the 24 Democratic presidential candidates. Resuming where we ended on Friday, the remaining candidates are completed in this Update edition.    (Listed... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/20/2019 8:39:28 AM

A Wide Range   5/16/2019
- "A Wide Range" - by Jim Ellis  - May 16, 2019 - Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading in a series of new polls, both nationally and in specific states, but the size of his advantage is highly variable. - In national surveys from Ipsos/Reuters, McLaughlin &... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/16/2019 12:40:45 PM

McCready, Bishop Advance   5/15/2019
- "McCready, Bishop Advance" - by Jim Ellis  - May 15, 2019 - Voters from Charlotte to Fayetteville went to the polls yesterday to choose nominees for North Carolina's vacant 9th Congressional District. The seat has been unoccupied all year since the state Board of Ele... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/15/2019 8:48:12 AM

NC-9 Special Today   5/14/2019
"NC-9 Special Today" - by Jim Ellis  May 14, 2019   Voters go to the polls today in North Carolina's second 2019 special congressional election primary, this time in the Charlotte-anchored 9th District.   The seat, which begins in southeastern Char... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/14/2019 9:04:31 AM

Two-State Reps   5/13/2019
"Two-State Reps" - by Jim Ellis  May 13, 2019   In a dozen instances throughout American history a person has been elected to the House of Representatives from one state, departed Congress for whatever reason, moved to another domain, and then won an additional con... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/13/2019 9:39:32 AM

Democrats: Looking Ahead   5/10/2019
"Democrats:  Looking Ahead" - by Jim Ellis  May 10, 2019   The Hill newspaper ran a pair of articles yesterday that discussed several points about the upcoming Democratic presidential nomination battle. The first was a story covering former Vice President Joe... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/10/2019 8:28:05 AM

The Second Choices   5/9/2019
"The Second Choices" - by Jim Ellis  May 9, 2019   Often in political polling, asking respondents about their second choice on a ballot test is quite telling. The Morning Consult firm polls regularly and they are the only prominent pollsters so far in this presiden... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/9/2019 10:25:56 AM

Biden Surging   5/8/2019
"Biden Surging" - by Jim Ellis  May 8, 2019   Recent polling has seen former Vice President Joe Biden take full advantage of his announcement tour. While the pre-race appeared to be settling into a battle between Mr. Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) once the ex... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/8/2019 9:32:20 AM

IL-3: The Primary Re-match   5/7/2019
"IL-3:  The Primary Re-match" - by Jim Ellis  May 7, 2019   One of the previous election cycle's most contested primaries was decided early, in March of 2018, when veteran Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs/Oak Lawn) eked out a 51-49% victory ov... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/7/2019 10:23:10 AM

Sen. Enzi to Retire   5/6/2019
"Sen. Enzi to Retire" - by Jim Ellis  May 6, 2019   On Saturday, four-term Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi (R), 75, announced from the Gillette City Hall building that he would not seek re-election next year and will end his career as the third longest-serving Senator in st... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/6/2019 9:57:21 AM

Candidate #22; Sanders Falling   5/3/2019
"Candidate #22; Sanders Falling" - by Jim Ellis  May 3, 2019   A new Democratic presidential candidate entered the race yesterday, one whom we didn't expect to see this soon.   Despite undergoing prostate cancer surgery last month, Colorado Sen. Mi... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/3/2019 9:50:53 AM

The New Super Tuesday   5/2/2019
"The New Super Tuesday" - by Jim Ellis  May 2, 2019   Yesterday, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) announced, as expected, that his state's new primary will move to March 3, 2020, which has clearly become the next presidential cycle's Super Tuesday.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/2/2019 10:08:52 AM

NC-3: R Run-off, D's Nominate   5/1/2019
"NC-3:  R Run-off, D's Nominate" - by Jim Ellis  May 1, 2019   Almost 69,000 eastern North Carolina voters cast ballots in the special Republican and Democratic primaries yesterday and through the early voting process aimed toward choosing a successor to t... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/1/2019 10:01:43 AM

Texas Numbers   4/30/2019
"Texas Numbers" - by Jim Ellis  April 30, 2019   The Lone Star State continues to move toward competitiveness meaning the Texas political apparatus will see new approaches from both parties in the 2020 election campaigns.    A new Emerson College... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/30/2019 9:28:48 AM

NC-3 Special Election Tomorrow   4/29/2019
"NC-3 Special Election Tomorrow" - by Jim Ellis  April 29, 2019   The first ballots in the three special congressional elections will be cast in tomorrow's primary election from North Carolina's 3rd District. Tomorrow evening, we will have some semblance of... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/29/2019 9:40:33 AM

Texas Race Forming   4/24/2019
"Texas Race Forming" - by Jim Ellis  April 24, 2019   Three-term Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) is obviously anticipating a tough 2020 fight for re-election. During this year's first quarter, he led all incumbents in fundraising bringing in $7.8 million to his camp... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/24/2019 9:38:07 AM

Moulton Announces; New Iowa, New Hampshire Data   4/23/2019
"Moulton Announces; New Iowa, New Hampshire Data" - by Jim Ellis  April 23, 2019   Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton (D-Salem) made his flirtation with running for President real over the weekend. Mr. Moulton officially joined the field of now 19 candidates an... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/23/2019 9:40:49 AM

A Momentum Poll   4/22/2019
"A Momentum Poll" - by Jim Ellis  April 22, 2019   A new poll was released at week's end, and it may be our best glimpse of the national Democratic presidential picture. As we know, the national count matters little in how the individual states will select dele... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/22/2019 9:55:06 AM

McAuliffe Won't Go   4/19/2019
"McAuliffe Won't Go" - by Jim Ellis  April 19, 2019   After earlier indicating that he was preparing to announce a presidential effort, former Virginia Governor and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that he would not becom... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/19/2019 9:39:29 AM

The House $   4/18/2019
"The House $" - by Jim Ellis  April 18, 2019   The Federal Election Commission reports are now in the public domain for first quarter 2019, and the amount of money being raised early suggests we could be headed for another record spending year in the 2020 campaigns... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/18/2019 9:47:29 AM

New Senate $ Figures   4/17/2019
"New Senate $ Figures" - by Jim Ellis  April 17, 2019   The first of eight quarters comprising the 2020 election cycle is now complete and, with that, most of the first Senate financial disclosure reports have been published. Below are the latest available cash-on-... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/17/2019 10:27:30 AM

Judge Moore Leads Again   4/16/2019
"Judge Moore Leads Again" - by Jim Ellis  April 16, 2019   Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy just surveyed the Alabama electorate (4/9-11; 625 AL registered voters), testing Sen. Doug Jones' (D) pre-campaign political strength and the fledgling potential Repub... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/16/2019 9:47:55 AM

Rep. Loebsack to Retire   4/15/2019
"Rep. Loebsack Retires" - by Jim Ellis  April 15, 2019   On Friday, seven-term Iowa Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2020. Mr. Loebsack, a former college professor, first came to Congress in the 2006 election when he... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/15/2019 9:17:17 AM

Iowa and New Hampshire Data   4/12/2019
"Iowa and New Hampshire Data" - by Jim Ellis  April 12, 2019   Earlier in the week, we reported upon polling data (Change Research and Emerson College) that suggested Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) had edged ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden and is even outpolli... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/12/2019 9:47:38 AM

Poll: Sanders Up In California   4/11/2019
"Poll:  Sanders Up In California" - by Jim Ellis  April 11, 2019   The Change Research polling organization released a new Democratic primary poll of the California electorate (4/6-9; 2,003 CA likely Democratic primary voters) and projects Sen. Bernie Sanders... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/11/2019 10:04:53 AM

Washington Moves   4/10/2019
"Washington Moves" - by Jim Ellis  April 10, 2019   One of the most interesting facets of the Democratic presidential nomination process sounds mundane, but it may be more telling than any single campaign factor.    The primary/caucus schedule wil... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/10/2019 10:07:32 AM

Swalwell In; Sanders Up In Bay State   4/9/2019
"Swalwell In; Sanders Up In Bay State" - by Jim Ellis  April 9, 2019   California Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin/Hayward), who for many months has been indicating that he would run for President, finally announced his intentions yesterday and becomes the 18th Democra... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/9/2019 8:20:33 AM

Coach Declares for Senate   4/8/2019
"Coach Declares for Senate" - by Jim Ellis  April 8, 2019   Political rumors have been flying for some time that former NCAA Football coach Tommy Tuberville was looking toward a run for public office, and now the speculation has come to fruition. Mr. Tuberville off... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/8/2019 9:04:04 AM

Rep. Ryan Announces   4/5/2019
"Rep. Ryan Announces" - by Jim Ellis  April 5, 2019   Calling himself a "reform-minded Democrat" who is "for the free enterprise system," and a "progressive who knows how to talk to working-class people," Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Youngsto... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/5/2019 9:21:40 AM

Analyzing Tuesday's Election   4/4/2019
"Analyzing Tuesday's Election" - by Jim Ellis  April 4, 2019   This Tuesday, elections were held in several jurisdictions with very mixed results. Democratic Socialists won big in the Chicago municipal elections; the Republicans scored an apparent upset in the... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/4/2019 11:45:14 AM

New Poll: Biden Holds First   4/3/2019
"New Poll:  Biden Holds First" - by Jim Ellis  April 3, 2019   Former Vice President Joe Biden has been under attack in recent days over past inappropriate behavior around women but, so far, it hasn't yet damaged his standing with Democratic primary voters... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/3/2019 10:15:07 AM

The Early Targets   4/2/2019
"The Early Targets" - by Jim Ellis  April 2, 2019   Continuing our early outlook of the 2020 House situation, we can begin by narrowing the field to those districts where Republicans will be concentrating at least their initial efforts in order to reclaim the major... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/2/2019 8:28:28 AM

The House Opens   4/1/2019
"The House Opens" - by Jim Ellis  April 1, 2019   Last week we spent a great deal of time analyzing the 2020 Senate races, and now we begin to take a look at some of the expected US House activity.   With Republicans now fighting to regain the majority... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/1/2019 9:53:32 AM

More To Come!   3/29/2019
"More To Come!" - by Jim Ellis  March 29, 2019   Several presumed presidential candidates whose aspirations appeared dormant have suddenly sprung to life. In reading the current political tea leaves, and should the latest trends prove true, we could return to proje... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/29/2019 9:28:47 AM

New Mexico: Dem Primary Already Simmering   3/28/2019
"New Mexico:  Dem Primary Already Simmering" - by Jim Ellis  March 28, 2019   Sen. Tom Udall (D) surprised the political world on Monday when he released a video announcing that the will retire when this session of Congress adjourns instead of running for a th... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/28/2019 10:19:10 AM

Senate Review - Part III   3/27/2019
"Senate Review - Part III" - by Jim Ellis  March 27, 2019   The third and final segment of our three-part Senate review covers the races alphabetically from North Carolina through Wyoming, with a re-visit to the new open seat in New Mexico:   New Mexic... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/27/2019 9:51:06 AM

Senate Review - Part II   3/25/2019
"Senate Review - Part II" - by Jim Ellis  March 25, 2019   The second of our three-part Senate review covers the races alphabetically from Louisiana through New Mexico:   Louisiana - Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) - Sen. Cassidy will seek a second term next yea... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/25/2019 10:09:24 AM

Senate Review - Part I   3/22/2019
"Senate Review - Part I" - by Jim Ellis  March 22, 2019   Only nearing the end of March in the off-year, already a great deal of early 2020 Senate action has occurred. Thus, it is a good time to begin reviewing all 34 statewide federal races that will adorn next ye... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/22/2019 10:01:02 AM

New CNN National Survey   3/21/2019
"New CNN National Survey" - by Jim Ellis  March 21, 2019   The CNN television network released their new national survey of the Democratic presidential contest (conducted by SSRS research company; 3/14-17; 1,003 US adults; 456 self-identified Democrats and those In... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/21/2019 10:47:09 AM

Biden's Rebound; MI Senate Surprise   3/20/2019
"Biden's Rebound; MI Senate Surprise" - by Jim Ellis  March 20, 2019   Earlier this week, Emerson College Polling released a survey of Wisconsin Democrats that found Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leading former Vice President Joe Biden, 39-24%, but an even newer E... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/20/2019 9:35:55 AM

Understanding Independents   3/19/2019
"Understanding Independents" - by Jim Ellis  March 19, 2019   In most elections, particularly in today's polarized political climate, the independent vote is often the determining factor. As the non-affiliated share grows within the American electorate, these i... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/19/2019 9:41:13 AM

NC-9: Ten Republicans File   3/18/2019
"NC-9:  Ten Republicans File" - by Jim Ellis  March 18, 2019   Candidate filing for the upcoming special election cycle closed for North Carolina's 9th District on Friday, and the official field features ten Republicans, one Democrat, and two minor party c... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/18/2019 9:48:54 AM

Beto In; His Chances   3/15/2019
"Beto In; His Chances" - by Jim Ellis  March 15, 2019   Former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke, as expected, officially joined the Democratic presidential race with a formal announcement while traveling to Iowa to begin campaigning.   Mr. O'Rou... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/15/2019 9:42:46 AM

Sen. Tillis' Potential Primary   3/14/2019
"Sen. Tillis' Potential Primary" - by Jim Ellis  March 14, 2019   According to yesterday's article in The Hill newspaper, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) may be headed for a serious Republican primary next year. The article, written by The Hill reporter... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/14/2019 11:49:45 AM

Beto Heads to Iowa; Scorecard   3/13/2019
"Beto Heads to Iowa; Scorecard" - by Jim Ellis  March 13, 2019   As the old saying goes, "you can't tell the players without a scorecard," which is quickly becoming the case with respect to the Democratic presidential nomination campaign.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/13/2019 10:13:44 AM

Moulton Moving   3/12/2019
"Moulton Moving" - by Jim Ellis  March 12, 2019   While former New York City Mayor and media magnate Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) both backed away from entering the presidential campaign because they couldn't see a path for themselves to win... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/12/2019 10:45:05 AM

Brown Out, Biden In?   3/8/2019
"Brown Out, Biden In?" - by Jim Ellis  March 8, 2019   Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, another of the potential Democratic presidential candidates who most observers thought would enter the race, is not.    His announcement yesterday is a bit surprisi... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/8/2019 9:30:14 AM

Without Bloomberg   3/7/2019
"Without Bloomberg" - by Jim Ellis  March 7, 2019   Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's decision earlier this week not to enter the Democratic presidential race becomes the first major surprise move of the early campaign.    It was... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/7/2019 10:35:55 AM

PA-12: Keller Wins Nomination   3/4/2019
"PA-12:  Keller Wins Nomination" - by Jim Ellis  March 4, 2019   On Saturday, during a seven-hour marathon special district convention marked with controversy the central Pennsylvania Republican delegates chose state Rep. Fred Keller (R-Mifflinburg) as the par... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/4/2019 10:16:30 AM

Projecting the Electoral College   3/1/2019
"Projecting the Electoral College" - by Jim Ellis  March 1, 2019   University of Virginia professor Dr. Larry Sabato just publicly released his first Electoral College projection for next year's presidential race, and it shows a very tight race. His predictions... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/1/2019 9:11:40 AM

Gov. Cooper Acts   2/28/2019
"Gov. Cooper Acts" - by Jim Ellis  February 28, 2019   North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D) announced the special election schedule for the 3rd Congressional District, vacant since 13-term incumbent Rep. Walter Jones (R-Farmville) passed away on February 10th.&nb... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/28/2019 12:12:37 PM

Pulling Away   2/27/2019
"Pulling Away" - by Jim Ellis  February 27, 2019   A new national Morning Consult poll (2/18-24; 15,642 US registered voters likely to vote in a Democratic primary via online questionnaire) finds former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders pulli... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/27/2019 9:43:40 AM

Colorado Decisions   2/26/2019
"Colorado Decisions" - by Jim Ellis  February 26, 2019   Saying he's "not cut out to be a Senator," former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) said yesterday that he will either run for President in 2020 or no office. He further stated that, "Sen... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/26/2019 9:19:33 AM

Tracking Approval   2/25/2019
"Tracking Approval" - by Jim Ellis  February 25, 2019   Already beginning to project where the states might fall in the 2020 presidential election, the Gallup organization released a 50-state survey tracking study Friday that summarizes their cumulative research co... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/25/2019 10:29:53 AM

Alabama Senate Race Begins   2/22/2019
"Alabama Senate Race Begins" - by Jim Ellis  February 22, 2019   One of the critical 2020 US Senate contests is beginning to take shape. Over the past two days, Alabama Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) formally announced his statewide candidacy with the goal of opposi... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/22/2019 9:39:37 AM

Sanders' Problem   2/21/2019
"Sanders' Problem" - by Jim Ellis  February 21, 2019   A day after announcing his entry into the 2020 presidential campaign, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders jumped off to a strong start, raising a reported $6 million in just his first 24 hours as a repeat candidate... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/21/2019 9:23:53 AM

Sanders In: His Path   2/20/2019
"Sanders In:  His Path" - by Jim Ellis  February 20, 2019   Calling Donald Trump "the most dangerous president in modern American history," Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-D/VT) yesterday announced his 2020 presidential campaign through You Tube and email.&nb... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/20/2019 9:38:29 AM

New York: A 2020 Political Hotbed   2/19/2019
"New York:  A 2020 Political Hotbed?" - by Jim Ellis  February 19, 2019   The state of New York, which generally features mostly non-competitive congressional campaigns in their 27 districts may see a very different 2020. Already, individuals are making prelim... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/19/2019 9:53:03 AM

Poll: Harris Underwhelms in California   2/15/2019
"Poll:  Harris Underwhelms in California" - by Jim Ellis  February 15, 2019   A new Change Research poll was just released of the California Democratic presidential electorate and should former Vice President Joe Biden enter the race, he apparently would fare... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/15/2019 9:41:44 AM

AZ Senate: Game Within the Game   2/14/2019
"AZ Senate:  Game Within the Game" - by Jim Ellis  February 14, 2019   Intrigue is already building in the Arizona US Senate special election. On Tuesday, Democratic retired astronaut Mark Kelly announced his candidacy for the party nomination. Yesterday, he c... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/14/2019 9:52:42 AM

Biden Still Up   2/13/2019
"Biden Still Up" - by Jim Ellis  February 13, 2019   A new Morning Consult national survey of Democratic presidential primary voters again finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading an ever-growing pack of hopefuls vying for the opportunity of facing President T... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/13/2019 9:29:54 AM

Dem Pres: The Numbers Grow   2/12/2019
"Dem Pres:  The Numbers Grow" - by Jim Ellis  February 12, 2019   Major action is beginning to occur within the Democratic presidential field. Sen. Amy Klobuchar's (D-MN) announcement entering the race on Sunday means that now 11 individuals are official c... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/12/2019 10:33:36 AM

House Dems: Frontline Program Targets   2/11/2019
"House Dems:  Frontline Program Targets" - by Jim Ellis  February 11, 2019   Countering the previously announced National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program targeting list, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their Frontlin... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/11/2019 10:19:14 AM

The Campaign Begins   2/7/2019
"The Campaign Begins" - by Jim Ellis  February 7, 2019   President Donald Trump used his State of the Union Address on Tuesday night to informally begin his re-election drive.    While some theorized that the President might decide not to seek a s... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/7/2019 10:12:11 AM

Mississippi's Dead Heat   2/6/2019
"Mississippi's Dead Heat" - by Jim Ellis  February 6, 2019   The open Mississippi Governor's race will be decided later this year, and a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (1/30-2/1; 625 MS registered voters) finds Attorney General Jim Hood (D) a... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/6/2019 9:39:03 AM

Dem Pres: Two Polls   2/5/2019
"Dem Pres: Two Polls" - by Jim Ellis  February 5, 2019   The Emerson College Polling Institute and Monmouth University just released two presidential polls, the former of Iowa voters, the latter, a national study.   The Emerson poll (1/30-2/2; 831 IA r... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/5/2019 9:34:29 AM

Northam on the Edge   2/4/2019
"Northam on the Edge" - by Jim Ellis  February 4, 2019   Virginia Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam continues to reel, and many believe the increasing pressure upon him to resign will force him from office within the next 48 hours.    Mr. Northam defe... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/4/2019 9:38:47 AM

A Gerrymander or Not?   2/1/2019
"A Gerrymander or Not?" - by Jim Ellis  February 1, 2019   As more final voting data becomes available about the 2018 electoral patterns, new local analysis articles are being distributed that allows us to better understand why the results unfolded as they did.&nbs... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/1/2019 10:24:59 AM

California 2018: Some Explanation   1/31/2019
"California 2018:  Some Explanation" - by Jim Ellis  January 31, 2019   One of the principle reasons the 2018 US House elections evolved from a close Democratic majority to a rout was the California results. The Sacramento Bee newspaper just published an artic... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/31/2019 11:38:41 AM

The Policy Divide   1/30/2019
"The Policy Divide" - by Jim Ellis  January 30, 2019   The Pew Research Center for US Politics and Policy released the results of its annual "Public's Priorities" survey (1/9-14; 1,505 US adults) and find areas of consistencies and great change from w... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/30/2019 10:52:02 AM

The Underlying Issues   1/29/2019
"The Underlying Numbers" - by Jim Ellis  January 29, 2019   In the last couple of days, the new Morning Consult American electorate tracking poll (1/18-22; 1,996 US registered voters; 35% self-identified Democrats; 33% Independent; 32% Republican) captured media at... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/29/2019 9:24:09 AM

Special Election Called   1/28/2019
"Special Election Called" - by Jim Ellis  January 28, 2019   While most of the special election banter surrounds the still undecided North Carolina situation (NC-9), the first new election of the year has just been scheduled.   With Pennsylvania Rep. T... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/28/2019 9:48:30 AM

Updating The Scorecard   1/25/2019
"Updating The Scorecard" - by Jim Ellis  January 25, 2019   The old saying, "you can't tell the players without a scorecard" certainly applies to the formulating 2020 Democratic presidential field of candidates.    This week, former... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/25/2019 9:24:47 AM

Poll: Trump Behind All, But Skewed?   1/24/2019
"Poll:  Trump Behind All, But Skewed?" - by Jim Ellis  January 24, 2019   A new Public Policy Polling company national survey (1/19-21; 750 US registered voters) finds President Trump, who is likely at his lowest ebb in popularity during his two-year stewardsh... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/24/2019 11:20:29 AM

The 2018 Numbers   1/23/2019
"The 2018 Numbers" - by Jim Ellis  January 23, 2019   Now that all but one of the 470 House and Senate races from the election cycle just ended are final and recorded, it is time to better understand what the results portend.   As we know, the Democrat... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/23/2019 9:40:33 AM

The Early Senate Maneuvers   1/22/2019
"The Early Senate Maneuvers" - by Jim Ellis  January 22, 2019   Though it is only January of the off-year, already early moves are being made in anticipation of an active 2020 US Senate campaign cycle. With 34 in-cycle Senate races on the ballot, as many as 16, at... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/22/2019 9:32:45 AM

Rep. Marino to Resign   1/18/2019
"Rep. Marino to Resign" - by Jim Ellis  January 18, 2019   Five-term Pennsylvania Rep. Tom Marino (R-Williamsport) announced yesterday that he is leaving Congress next week to accept a professional position in the private sector. Mr. Marino was first elected to the... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/18/2019 9:56:33 AM

The Justice Democrats   1/17/2019
"The Justice Democrats" - by Jim Ellis  January 17, 2019   Similar to the time when the Republicans controlled the House, it appears the most ideologically committed faction of the Democratic Party is already beginning to target the more centrist majority members f... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/17/2019 9:38:46 AM

Senate: Early Handicapping   1/16/2019
"Senate:  Early Handicapping" - by Jim Ellis  January 16, 2019   The 2020 Senate election cycle features 34 races instead of 33 because of the Arizona special, and this time it is the Republicans who must defend the preponderance of seats. In 2018, Democrats h... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/16/2019 9:55:47 AM

The Presidential Scorecard   1/15/2019
"The Presidential Scorecard" - by Jim Ellis  January 15, 2019   As predicted, a great deal of action on the presidential front has already occurred in January, and we're likely to see more very soon.    So far this month, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/15/2019 9:53:55 AM

NC-9: Vacant for the Year?   1/14/2019
"NC-9:  Vacant for the Year?" - by Jim Ellis  January 14, 2019   The 9th District of North Carolina, still with uncertified electoral results from November, could conceivably remain vacant until the November municipal elections as the situation continues to un... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/14/2019 8:45:23 AM

Senate Approvals   1/11/2019
"Senate Approvals" - by Jim Ellis  January 11, 2019   The Morning Consult firm just released their quarterly ranking of Senate job approval scores. All 100 Senators are surveyed, and the numbers cover the 4th quarter of 2018. Several categories are of interest. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/11/2019 10:17:53 AM

The Closest Races   1/10/2019
"The Closest Races" - by Jim Ellis  January 10, 2019   Now that the various state elections' offices have certified the November 6th final voting totals, we can begin to better analyze the particulars of the 2018 campaigns, which will provide clues to future ta... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/10/2019 10:18:01 AM

Potential Candidates Making Moves   1/9/2019
"Potential Candidates Making Moves" - by Jim Ellis  January 9, 2019   January promised to be an active month on the budding presidential campaign front, and we are already seeing movement in that regard. Below is a synopsis of the latest activities from major and n... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/9/2019 9:39:30 AM

Kentucky Gov Race Heating Up   1/8/2019
"Kentucky Gov Race Heating Up" - by Jim Ellis  January 8, 2019   Blue Grass State politics are beginning to boil, all centered around the 2019 Governor's race. With the candidate filing deadline fast approaching on January 29th for the May 21st statewide primar... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/8/2019 9:19:03 AM

Pelosi By Two   1/4/2019
"Pelosi By Two" - by Jim Ellis  January 4, 2019   California Rep. Nancy Pelosi was returned to the Speaker's office yesterday in a carefully orchestrated vote that allowed her to claim the gavel by a two-vote margin, while simultaneously allowing several incomi... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/4/2019 9:47:49 AM

House: Opening with a Vacancy   1/3/2019
"House:  Opening with a Vacancy" - by Jim Ellis  January 3, 2019   The new House of Representatives will convene today with only 434 voting members, as the situation in North Carolina's 9th District remains unresolved. To recap, Republican Mark Harris scor... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/3/2019 9:30:47 AM

What to Expect   1/2/2019
"What to Expect" - by Jim Ellis  January 2, 2019   We kick off a new calendar and political year looking at several anticipated happenings. On the presidential front, we can expect several candidate announcements coming in January, along with a changing primary/cau... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/2/2019 9:34:39 AM

Gaining & Losing   12/21/2018
All of the best for a wonderful holiday season.  The BIPAC Daily will return in the new year on January 2nd.  Thank you for your loyal support.   "Gaining & Losing" - by Jim Ellis  December 21, 2018   Early last week we covered the new Ce... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/21/2018 9:35:48 AM

Senate: "To Develop" Races   12/20/2018
"Senate:  'To Develop' Races" - by Jim Ellis   December 20, 2018   Winding down 2018 allows us an opportunity to complete the coming Senate political picture.    As previously covered, the states comprising the early top tier com... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/20/2018 9:31:32 AM

McSally Appointed   12/19/2018
"McSally Appointed" - by Jim Ellis   December 19, 2018   Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) defeated Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) for the open Arizona seat by 55,900 votes in November, but ironically now both are headed to Washington as new members of the US Se... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/19/2018 9:30:56 AM

Sen. Alexander to Retire   12/18/2018
"Sen. Alexander to Retire" - by Jim Ellis   December 18, 2018   Last week, Sen. Lamar Alexander's (R-TN) campaign released an internal survey that tested the three-term incumbent's favorability ratings and the toplines produced excellent results. Accom... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/18/2018 10:04:23 AM

Biden Up Twice   12/17/2018
"Biden Up Twice" - by Jim Ellis   December 17, 2018   A pair of Democratic presidential primary polls were just released, one with a national respondent universe, and the other for the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucus. In both former Vice President and ex-Delaw... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/17/2018 8:44:08 AM

Senate 2020: The Second Tier - Part II   12/14/2018
"Senate 2020:  The Second Tier - Part II" - by Jim Ellis   December 14, 2018   Yesterday, we covered the first part of the group of under-the-radar Senate races that could develop in 2020, but where current action is noteworthy. The eight top tier competi... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/14/2018 10:08:14 AM

Senate 2020: The Second Tier - Part I   12/13/2018
"Senate 2020:  The Second Tier - Part I" - by Jim Ellis   December 13, 2018   Looking ahead to the 2020 US Senate cycle, eight states are clearly in the first tier, but there is budding action occurring in a secondary set of places, also. Today, we look a... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/13/2018 10:41:56 AM

Approval vs. Votes   12/12/2018
"Approval vs. Votes" - by Jim Ellis   December 12, 2018   Reviewing documentation from the 2018 US Senate races, it appears there is at least a tangential correlation between an incumbent Senator's pre-campaign approval rating and the vote percentage garne... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/12/2018 9:41:30 AM

North Carolina: Potential Specials   12/11/2018
"North Carolina:  Potential Specials" - by Jim Ellis   December 11, 2018   Rep. Mark Meadows (R-Skyland/Asheville) being mentioned as a possible successor to outgoing White House chief of staff John Kelly means that a special election would be called for... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/11/2018 9:13:46 AM

The Senate (Presidential) Cash   12/10/2018
"The Senate (Presidential) Cash" - by Jim Ellis   December 10, 2018   The Federal Election Commission just released the post-election campaign financial disclosure reports (through the period ending November 26th), and the information allows us to draw some in... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/10/2018 8:25:24 AM

Presidential Delegate Outlook   12/7/2018
"Presidential Delegate Outlook" - by Jim Ellis   December 7, 2018   With several Democrats taking definitive steps toward becoming presidential candidates during this week or at least dropping clear hints that they may well take such action, we can begin surve... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/7/2018 9:50:31 AM

Projecting Apportionment   12/6/2018
"Projecting Apportionment" - by Jim Ellis   December 6, 2018   New population growth numbers are now available from the Census Bureau, allowing us to gain more clues about how the coming 2020 post-census apportionment might look for the nation's congressio... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/6/2018 10:33:53 AM

A Pair Still Not Decided   12/5/2018
"A Pair Still Not Decided" - by Jim Ellis   December 5, 2018   Two House races are still not finalized, with one possibly headed for a new election. In California, action is still not complete now almost a month after Election Day. Democrat T.J. Cox leads Rep.... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/5/2018 9:36:26 AM

Analyzing the Vote   12/4/2018
"Analyzing the Vote" - by Jim Ellis   December 4, 2018   The Pew Research Center recently released a series of reports about the 2018 electoral patterns that allow us to better understand what happened in last month's voting.   Clearly, the el... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/4/2018 10:11:36 AM

Setting the 2020 Stage - Part II   12/3/2018
"Setting the 2020 Stage - Part II" - by Jim Ellis   December 3, 2018   Continuing with our look at what will likely be the top 2020 Republican conversion targets, below are the remaining nine districts on our list:   NM-2 (Rep-Elect Xochitl Torres... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/3/2018 9:44:23 AM

Setting the 2020 Stage - Part 1   11/30/2018
"Setting the 2020 Stage - Part 1" - by Jim Ellis   November 30, 2018   Yesterday's House Democratic Conference election of Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL) as the new Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chair, and Rep. Tom Emmer's (R-MN) previou... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/30/2018 10:45:59 AM

NC-9: Problems   11/29/2018
"NC-9:  Problems" - by Jim Ellis   November 29, 2018   The North Carolina Board of Elections yesterday failed to certify Republican Mark Harris' victory in the open 9th Congressional District, action that may initiate a long legal battle.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/29/2018 11:03:04 AM

Hyde-Smith Wins   11/28/2018
"Hyde-Smith Wins" - by Jim Ellis   November 28, 2018   The 2018 election cycle ended in Mississippi last night as appointed Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), overcoming several campaign gaffes and mis-statements, defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Missis... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/28/2018 10:35:01 AM

Looks Like 235   11/27/2018
"Looks Like 235" - by Jim Ellis   November 27, 2018   The 2018 House election cycle is finally drawing to a close, and it looks like the Democrats are gaining their 40th conversion seat. Last night in California, as the state's marathon vote counting proce... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/27/2018 9:34:13 AM

Yet Another Election   11/26/2018
"Yet Another Election" - by Jim Ellis   November 26, 2018   The 2018 election cycle's final contest comes tomorrow in Mississippi. The special run-off campaign between appointed Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Missis... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/26/2018 9:34:56 AM

Analyzing Turnout   11/21/2018
"Analyzing Turnout" - by Jim Ellis   November 21, 2018   Preliminary final turnout numbers are being reported from around the country and the analysis suggests some surprising conclusions.    As we know, the 2018 midterm turnout was certainly... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/21/2018 8:07:27 AM

UT-4: Love Falls   11/20/2018
"UT-4:  Love Falls" - by Jim Ellis   November 20, 2018   It appears the final undecided House race has now come to at least an unofficial end, and the result is a bit surprising. Some were predicting the culminating trend would favor incumbent Rep. Mia Lo... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/20/2018 8:27:46 AM

Florida Ends; Others Called   11/19/2018
"Florida Ends; Others Called" - by Jim Ellis   November 19, 2018   In a final result where the candidates were divided by less than two votes per precinct statewide, Gov. Rick Scott (R) has defeated Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in the hotly contested Florida Senate ra... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/19/2018 9:24:16 AM

Florida Deadline Expires   11/16/2018
"Florida Deadline Expires" - by Jim Ellis   November 16, 2018   The state of Florida again has tight statewide campaigns in recount mode, reminiscent of the 2000 presidential campaign that saw George W. Bush winning the state by 537 votes that propelled him in... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/16/2018 8:36:42 AM

Rep. Fudge Emerges   11/15/2018
"Rep. Fudge Emerges" - by Jim Ellis   November 15, 2018   While Republicans chose their leadership team yesterday with little in the way of surprise as California Rep. Kevin McCarthy was easily elected to lead the new GOP minority, the bigger news surrounds fo... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/15/2018 10:29:00 AM

Poliquin's "Win" is Likely a Loss   11/14/2018
"Poliquin's 'Win' is Likely a Loss" - by Jim Ellis   November 14, 2018   Believing that Maine's relatively new Ranked Choice Voting system will turn his current plurality re-election victory into a loss, Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor) a... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/14/2018 9:36:09 AM

More Calls   11/12/2018
"More Calls" - by Jim Ellis   November 12, 2018   While two key Senate races and the Georgia Governor's campaign remain languishing in a situation rife with uncounted votes and complaints about election officials, progress is being made with outstanding Ho... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/12/2018 9:33:45 AM

Recounts and Lawsuits   11/9/2018
"Recounts and Lawsuits" - by Jim Ellis   November 9, 2018   Political overtime action is occurring in three states as very close elections for US Senate and Governor still appear to be a long way from concluding.   In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott'... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/9/2018 10:26:57 AM

More From Tuesday Night   11/8/2018
"More from Tuesday Night" - by Jim Ellis   November 8, 2018   According to a CBS News report quoting University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, who runs the United States Election Project, more than 113 million people voted in the 2018 midterm election,... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/8/2018 10:02:38 AM

The Results   11/7/2018
"The Results" - by Jim Ellis   November 7, 2018   The long 2018 midterm election cycle drew to a close last night and, as predicted, split government will return to Capitol Hill. Republicans held the Senate and saw their majority grow as Democratic Sens. Heidi... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/7/2018 10:47:59 AM

It's Here   11/6/2018
"It's Here" - by Jim Ellis   November 6, 2018   At long last, the 2018 midterm Election Day has arrived. Democrats appear well positioned to capture the House of Representatives, but the question of how big a majority margin we will see remains. The large... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/6/2018 9:06:16 AM

The Final Outlook   11/5/2018
"The Final Outlook" - by Jim Ellis   November 5, 2018   Election Day has arrived, but it is likely that a majority of those planning to vote have already done so. Early voting totals are way up in most of the 37 states that employ a pre-election ballot casting... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/5/2018 9:45:39 AM

Senate: The Latest   11/2/2018
"Senate:  The Latest" - by Jim Ellis   November 2, 2018   The pollsters are publishing their final pre-election studies, and here's were the top Senate races stand:   Arizona Rep. Martha McSally (R) vs. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) Fox... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/2/2018 10:03:03 AM

Arizona Clues   11/1/2018
"Arizona Clues" - by Jim Ellis   November 1, 2018   It was always believed that the Grand Canyon State's open Senate race between Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) and Martha McSally (R-Tucson) would be one of the best campaigns in the country, and no one s... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/1/2018 9:28:39 AM

Ohio: Contrasting Polls   10/31/2018
"Ohio:  Contrasting Polls" - by Jim Ellis   October 31, 2018   The Buckeye State of Ohio is viewed as one of the country's quintessential swing states. In 2016, however, the state exceeded polling and even Republican expectations in their presidential... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/31/2018 9:54:19 AM

National Early Voting Report   10/30/2018
"National Early Voting Report" - by Jim Ellis   October 30, 2018   Now over halfway through the early voting period in the 37 states that offer early voting options for the populace, some places are turning in record participation rates. Each state has various... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/30/2018 9:30:58 AM

A Polling Trifecta: IN, FL, AZ   10/29/2018
"A Polling Trifecta:  IN, FL, AZ" - by Jim Ellis   October 29, 2018   CBS News/YouGov just published new numbers from three key Senate races, all conducted late last week during the October 23-26 period, that largely confirm recent trends.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/29/2018 9:36:35 AM

The Governors   10/26/2018
"The Governors" - by Jim Ellis   October 26, 2018   The 2018 election cycle features 36 gubernatorial campaign, 26 of which have federal redistricting ramifications.  The ones that don't are at-large congressional district states (AK, SD, VT, WY) or w... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/26/2018 10:03:04 AM

The Lone Star Show   10/25/2018
"The Lone Star Show" - by Jim Ellis   October 25, 2018   The Texas Senate race has become the premier political contest of this midterm election. With Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-El Paso) becoming a national celebrity due to constant media attention, and now wit... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/25/2018 10:19:42 AM

Indiana Turning   10/24/2018
"Indiana Turning" - by Jim Ellis   October 24, 2018   With only four 2018 Indiana Senate polls conducted before September this campaign was the least surveyed toss-up race in the country, but that is changing. We now see a plethora of polling being released in... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/24/2018 10:35:53 AM

Florida Polling: Inconsistent Results   10/23/2018
"Florida Polling:  Inconsistent Results" - by Jim Ellis   October 23, 2018   Four statewide Florida polls were just released, and we continue to see conflicting results across the board two weeks prior to Election Day. As usual, the Sunshine State politic... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/23/2018 10:22:01 AM

The House Targets   10/22/2018
"The House Targets" - by Jim Ellis   October 22, 2018   Democrats appear to be on the cusp of regaining the House majority, but actually achieving their goal is not yet guaranteed.    The Dems have accomplished three major objectives that hav... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/22/2018 9:50:39 AM

The Swing Six   10/19/2018
"The Swing Six" - by Jim Ellis   October 19, 2018   As we move close to Election Day, it is becoming clearer that the Republicans will maintain control of the US Senate and likely expand their small majority from one to three, and maybe even four, seats. &... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/19/2018 9:50:50 AM

The Money   10/18/2018
"The Money" - by Jim Ellis   October 18, 2018   The third quarter financial disclosure reports are now public, and more details are readily available. Thus, we are able to learn about various record-setting fundraising efforts.   In addition to Te... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/18/2018 10:18:33 AM

Feinstein Still Weak; Gas Tax Polling   10/17/2018
"Feinstein Still Weak; Gas Tax Polling" - by Jim Ellis   October 17, 2018   Survey USA released a poll of the California electorate, one more political study that finds Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) failing to establish command in her race against fellow Democrat... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/17/2018 9:38:39 AM

The Nevada Sway   10/16/2018
"The Nevada Sway" - by Jim Ellis   October 16, 2018   A new Emerson College poll (10/10-12; 625 NV likely voters) projects Sen. Dean Heller (R) to a 48-41% lead over freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson), which is the largest lead for either candidate since... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/16/2018 9:15:11 AM

Turning Around   10/15/2018
"Turning Around" - by Jim Ellis   October 15, 2018   According to the liberal Daily Kos Elections website, six congressional races that appeared to be headed in one direction look to be reversing themselves.    Four campaigns that Democrats e... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/15/2018 9:47:20 AM

McSally Surges in New Poll   10/11/2018
"McSally Surges in New Poll" - by Jim Ellis   October 11, 2018   A new OH Predictive Insights survey for ABC News 15 in Phoenix (10/1-2; 600 AZ likely voters) brings new information about the open Arizona Senate race. According to the ballot test results, Rep.... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/11/2018 10:00:46 AM

The CBS/YouGov Series   10/9/2018
"The CBS/YouGov Series" - by Jim Ellis   October 9, 2018   CBS News and the YouGov international online pollster again teamed to test four key US Senate races as part of the former's Battleground Tracker series and finds Republican and Democratic candidate... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/9/2018 9:08:27 AM

Forecasting the Results - Part II   10/5/2018
- "Forecasting the Results - Part II" - by Jim Ellis  - October 5, 2018 - The Democrats need to convert a net 24 seats to secure a one-seat majority in the US House on November 6th. Many reports quote the number 23 as what is necessary to win control, but the new Pennsylva... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/5/2018 9:50:04 AM

Forecasting the Results - Part I   10/4/2018
"Forecasting the Results - Part I" - by Jim Ellis   October 4, 2018   As we approach one month remaining in the 2018 election cycle, it is a good time to begin forecasting what may be the plausible outcome of this national midterm election campaign. Today, we... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/4/2018 10:02:55 AM

VA-10: Momentum Change; Dems: Eye-Popping Dollars   10/3/2018
"VA-10: Momentum Change; Dems: Eye-Popping Dollars" - by Jim Ellis   October 3, 2018   Recently, signals were developing that Rep. Barbara Comstock's (R-McLean) campaign status against state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D-Loudoun County) was trending poorly to th... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/3/2018 10:05:48 AM

NJ-11: Rebounding   10/2/2018
"NJ-11:  Rebounding" - by Jim Ellis   October 2, 2018   A new poll suggests that conventional wisdom about how a northern New Jersey district will vote next month might be inaccurate.   For quite some time, the common belief has been that ret... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/2/2018 9:11:52 AM

The Healthcare Air Wars   10/1/2018
"The Healthcare Air Wars" - by Jim Ellis   October 1, 2018   With the economy performing well, most recent polling finds jobs and taxes often dropping to third place as an answer to the most important issue question. Depending upon the geographic region, immig... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/1/2018 10:42:24 AM

New Duncan Hunter Poll   9/28/2018
"New Duncan Hunter Poll" - by Jim Ellis   September 28, 2018   One of the more interesting asides for the coming election is whether the two indicted congressmen, California's Duncan Hunter and New York's Chris Collins, can still win re-election. Since... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/28/2018 9:45:48 AM

The Spending Clues   9/27/2018
"The Spending Clues" - by Jim Ellis   September 27, 2018   The old saying, "put your money where your mouth is," certainly applies to campaign politics, and we have new evidence of such. Currently, there is much conjecture and banter about which cand... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/27/2018 9:01:07 AM

The Healthcare Attacks   9/26/2018
"The Healthcare Attacks" - by Jim Ellis   September 26, 2018   Now that the economy is rolling, surveys are beginning to show that jobs and taxes are lesser campaign issues.    Some state and district polls indicate that the economy is droppi... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/26/2018 9:55:32 AM

TX-31: Carter vs. Hegar   9/25/2018
"TX-31:  Carter vs. Hegar" - by Jim Ellis   September 25, 2018   For the first time since his original election to the House back in 2002, Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) has drawn a top-tier Democratic challenger.    Consultant and Afgh... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/25/2018 9:41:47 AM

The Dems' Path   9/24/2018
"The Dems' Path" - by Jim Ellis   September 24, 2018   Most of the contemporary political talk surrounds the Democrats' ability to gain the US House majority, but is there a viable path for a power shift in the Senate? Their road to a new Senate majori... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/24/2018 9:45:26 AM

Senate Update - Part II   9/21/2018
"Senate Update - Part II" - by Jim Ellis   September 21, 2018   Today we continue our look at the most competitive 17 US Senate contests with our second and final installment.   Nevada Sen. Dean Heller (R) is embroiled in an intense re-electio... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/21/2018 9:54:05 AM

Senate Recap - Part 1   9/20/2018
"Senate Recap - Part 1" - by Jim Ellis   September 20, 2018   From the 35 US Senate in-cycle races it is clear that the major contests are narrowing to 16 competitive political battles. A 17th campaign, the one in California between Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) a... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/20/2018 10:23:51 AM

Cruz Rebounds   9/19/2018
"Cruz Rebounds" - by Jim Ellis   September 19, 2018   A new Quinnipiac University poll (9/11-17; 807 TX likely voters) finds that Sen. Ted Cruz (R), after languishing in a rather prolonged syndrome where he was only posting small single digit leads over US Rep... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/19/2018 9:37:37 AM

Nevada: Polling Contradiction   9/18/2018
"Nevada:  Polling Contradiction" - by Jim Ellis   September 18, 2018   A new survey was just released covering the two Nevada statewide campaigns, and the results are curious.    Gravis Marketing tested the Silver State electorate (9/11-... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/18/2018 10:16:43 AM

Health Care Politics   9/17/2018
"Health Care Politics" - by Jim Ellis   September 17, 2018   In virtually every poll, health care is mentioned in the top three of most important issues across the country. Therefore, ad themes attacking the problem from both ends of the political spectrum are... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/17/2018 11:05:04 AM

New York State Results; The Fox Polls   9/14/2018
"New York State Results; The Fox Polls" - by Jim Ellis   September 14, 2018   Gov. Andrew Cuomo, as predicted, easily won the Democratic gubernatorial primary last night with a 65-35% victory over actress Cynthia Nixon. Late polling projected the Governor to b... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/14/2018 9:45:33 AM

Rhode Island Results   9/13/2018
"Rhode Island Results" - by Jim Ellis   September 13, 2018   The Ocean State conducted the final primary before the general election yesterday, and Gov. Gina Raimondo was successfully re-nominated in the Democratic primary. But, her victory margin wasn't p... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/13/2018 9:23:32 AM

New Hampshire Results   9/12/2018
"New Hampshire Results" - by Jim Ellis   September 12, 2018   The election cycle's final primary week began yesterday in the Granite State. Tomorrow, Rhode Islanders go to the polls, and on Thursday New Yorkers return to choose state nominees after their f... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/12/2018 10:03:35 AM

The Polling Machine   9/11/2018
"The Polling Machine" - by Jim Ellis   September 11, 2018   The Siena College Research Institute entered into a polling partnership with the New York Times to survey what the news organization spokespeople indicate will be nearly 100 US House campaigns. The Ti... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/11/2018 9:39:58 AM

"Massachusetts Primary Today" - by Jim Ellis   September 4, 2018   Bay State voters head to the polls today to choose nominees for federal and state office.   In the Senate race, Republicans will select an opponent for first term Sen. Elizabeth Wa... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/4/2018 9:42:40 AM

The House Results   8/31/2018
"The House Results" - by Jim Ellis   August 31, 2018   While we covered the statewide results for the August 28th nomination elections in Arizona, Florida, and Oklahoma earlier in the week, now is a good time to review the many US House campaigns that were dec... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/31/2018 9:55:51 AM

Gerrymandering Ruling Could Alter Majority   8/30/2018
"Gerrymandering Ruling Could Alter Majority" - by Jim Ellis   August 30, 2018   Earlier this week, the same three-judge panel that previously ruled the North Carolina congressional boundaries as unconstitutional did so again, well after the lines were re-drawn... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/30/2018 9:31:04 AM

Gillum Tallies Upset; Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma Results   8/29/2018
"Gillum Tallies Upset; Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma Results" - by Jim Ellis   August 29, 2018   Yesterday, we covered the impending Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary in terms that suggested the detected [Tallahassee Mayor] Andrew Gillum surge would likely... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/29/2018 9:46:30 AM

Today's Florida Primary   8/28/2018
"Today's Florida Primary" - by Jim Ellis   August 28, 2018   We have now come to the end of the multi-state primaries for the 2018 election cycle. Yesterday, we covered the Arizona primary and Oklahoma run-offs to be decided this evening. Today we take a l... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/28/2018 10:18:28 AM

Arizona and Oklahoma Tomorrow; Democrats Change Rules   8/27/2018
"Arizona and Oklahoma Tomorrow; Democrats Change Rules" - by Jim Ellis   August 27, 2018   Arizona, Florida, and Oklahoma voters go to the polls tomorrow in one of the last major primary days of the current election cycle. Today, we look at Arizona and Oklahom... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/27/2018 9:55:06 AM

Massachusetts 3: A Sleeper?   8/24/2018
"Massachusetts 3:  A Sleeper?" - by Jim Ellis   August 24, 2018   One of the few interesting remaining primaries in this 2018 election cycle is the open northern Massachusetts congressional race featuring ten Democratic candidates all attempting to succee... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/24/2018 9:36:57 AM

Barrasso Easily; Alaska Results   8/22/2018
"Barrasso Easily; Alaska Results" - by Jim Ellis   August 22, 2018   Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso easily overcame his self-funding primary opponent last night with a 67-28% landslide victory. The Senator topped investor David Dodson and four minor GOP candidates... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/22/2018 9:42:17 AM

Alaska, Wyoming Vote Today   8/21/2018
"Alaska, Wyoming Vote Today" - by Jim Ellis   August 21, 2018   Voters in the Last Frontier and Equality State choose their nominees today, and even though these are small, single-member US House states, important primaries fill the election docket.  ... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/21/2018 9:03:32 AM

Reviewing the Latest Data   8/20/2018
"Reviewing the Latest Data" - by Jim Ellis   August 20, 2018   With 41 state electorates now having chosen nominees and two more doing so tomorrow (Alaska and Wyoming), it is a good time to check just how the top Senate races are performing as the calendar beg... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/20/2018 9:03:38 AM

Breaking Polls   8/17/2018
"Breaking Polls" - by Jim Ellis   August 17, 2018   Now with 41 states having officially moved into general election campaign mode and two more, Alaska and Wyoming, voting on Tuesday, new November surveys and a key primary election poll were all just released... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/17/2018 9:05:49 AM

The Florida Seesaw   8/16/2018
"The Florida Seesaw" - by Jim Ellis   August 16, 2018   There has been no race in this current election cycle that has featured more swings among the candidates than the open Florida Governor's campaign. What makes it even more interesting is that the wide... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/16/2018 9:29:38 AM

Primary Results: Pawlenty Falls; Wisconsin Set   8/15/2018
"Primary Results:  Pawlenty Falls; Wisconsin Set" - by Jim Ellis   August 15, 2018   Forty states have now chosen their nominees for the fall, as voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin made their choices known yesterday.   C... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/15/2018 9:36:05 AM

Four More Primaries Today   8/14/2018
"Four More Primaries Today" - by Jim Ellis   August 14, 2018   Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will choose their nominees today. Minnesota and Wisconsin, in particular, feature some key contests.   Connecticut Though S... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/14/2018 8:37:00 AM

Hanabusa Defeated; Case to Return   8/13/2018
"Hanabusa Defeated; Case to Return" - by Jim Ellis   August 13, 2018   The Hawaii primary was held on Saturday, and while Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) began her Democratic primary challenge as a virtual favorite to deny Gov. David Ige re-nomination - at... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/13/2018 9:50:44 AM

Hyde-Smith Up; Hawaii Primary Tomorrow   8/10/2018
"Hyde-Smith Up; Hawaii Primary Tomorrow" - by Jim Ellis   August 10, 2018   A new Triumph Campaigns survey for the Y'all Politics blog (7/30-31; 2,100 MS likely registered voters; 525 from each of the state's four congressional districts) tested the tw... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/10/2018 8:43:03 AM

Recapping OH-12   8/9/2018
"Recapping OH-12" - by Jim Ellis   August 9, 2018   The OH-12 special congressional election drew major attention on Tuesday night as state Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) and Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D) battled well into the night befor... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/9/2018 10:27:10 AM

Balderson Wins; Close Primaries   8/8/2018
"Balderson Wins; Close Primaries" - by Jim Ellis   August 8, 2018   The multiple pollsters who predicted a very tight OH-12 special election finish last night proved correct, as Ohio Republican state Senator Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) defeated Franklin coun... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/8/2018 9:29:33 AM

The August 7 Primaries; OH-12 Special - Part II   8/7/2018
"The August 7 Primaries; OH-12 Special - Part II" - by Jim Ellis   August 7, 2018   We finish our look at today's primary elections, covering Michigan, the OH-12 special congressional election, and the Washington contest.   Michigan The US... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/7/2018 8:27:14 AM

The August 7 Primaries - Part I   8/6/2018
"The August 7 Primaries - Part I" - by Jim Ellis   August 6, 2018   The August 7th primaries that arrive tomorrow decide important nomination campaigns in Kansas, Michigan, and Washington, while the Missouri political card is already virtually set. Today, we l... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/6/2018 9:39:55 AM

Tennessee Results   8/3/2018
"Tennessee Results" - by Jim Ellis   August 3, 2018   Often in politics when two candidates begin to square off against each other in a multi-candidate field, the pair loses and an opponent coming from the outside walks away with the prize. This model again ha... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/3/2018 10:15:23 AM

Tennessee Votes   8/2/2018
"Tennessee Votes" - by Jim Ellis   August 2, 2018   Today, Volunteer State voters go to the polls to participate in the nation's only Thursday primary, and the Tennesseans will choose nominees in several important tight races.   There is no su... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/2/2018 10:35:27 AM

Dead Heats in New Nevada Poll   8/1/2018
"Dead Heats in New Nevada Poll" - by Jim Ellis   August 1, 2018   A new Suffolk University survey (7/24-29; 500 NV likely voters) returns numbers that again show Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) falling within the margin of polling error... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/1/2018 8:29:24 AM

Scott Up in Detailed Poll   7/31/2018
"Scott Up in Detailed Poll" - by Jim Ellis   July 31, 2018   Another new poll will be released today for the Florida Senate race, although this data provides us a more in depth look to determine where each candidate is strong.   For more than a ye... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/31/2018 9:01:34 AM

The Crystal Ball Comparison   7/30/2018
"The Crystal Ball Comparison" - by Jim Ellis   July 30, 2018   Last week, University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato released his latest "Crystal Ball" ratings of the current US House races and declared that the Democrats are a "soft favorite... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/30/2018 8:32:50 AM

Feinstein: More Warning Signals   7/27/2018
"Feinstein:  More Warning Signals" - by Jim Ellis   July 27, 2018   The Public Policy Institute of California released a new survey of the Golden State electorate, and the pollsters uncovered some new information about the double-Democrat US Senate race t... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/27/2018 8:54:53 AM

Previewing Tennessee Thursday   7/26/2018
"Previewing Tennessee Thursday" - by Jim Ellis   July 26, 2018   Next Thursday, Volunteer State voters head to the polls in the only place that holds its statewide primary on a day other than a Tuesday or Saturday. The August 2nd Tennessee political card featu... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/26/2018 10:54:04 AM

Landslide; Closer Calls   7/25/2018
"Landslide; Closer Calls" - by Jim Ellis   July 25, 2018   The Georgia run-off election was held last night and, as expected, Secretary of State Brian Kemp defeated Lt. Governor Casey Cagle to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination. His landslide victory... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/25/2018 9:07:53 AM

Georgia Run-off Today   7/24/2018
"Georgia Run-off Today" - by Jim Ellis   July 24, 2018   Peach State voters go to the polls today, in a place where Republicans will choose a gubernatorial nominee while Democrats pick congressional candidates in Atlanta suburban districts 6 and 7.  &... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/24/2018 9:10:54 AM

Against Pelosi: Maybe Not   7/23/2018
"Against Pelosi:  Maybe Not" - by Jim Ellis   July 23, 2018   Several media stories have already been written about Democratic House candidates reportedly saying they will not support Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for leadership elections scheduled... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/23/2018 10:15:07 AM

West Virginia Poll: SCOTUS Effect   7/20/2018
"West Virginia Poll:  SCOTUS Effect" - by Jim Ellis   July 20, 2018   The Trafalgar Group surveyed the West Virginia US Senate campaign (7/13-16; 1,158 WV likely general election voters) and tested - for what may be the first time any pollster has done so... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/20/2018 9:31:40 AM

New York Data: Cuomo; Maloney   7/19/2018
"New York Data:  Cuomo; Maloney" - by Jim Ellis   July 19, 2018   Though New Yorkers have already gone to the polls to choose their federal nominees, they must return on September 13th to vote for their final state candidates. The Empire State is the only... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/19/2018 10:19:18 AM

Roby Wins Run-Off   7/18/2018
"Roby Wins Run-Off" - by Jim Ellis   July 18, 2018   Alabama voters went to the polls yesterday to settle run-off elections, and the only congressional race on the ballot featured a Republican contest in the state's southeastern 2nd District.  &nb... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/18/2018 9:56:42 AM

Governors' Ratings   7/17/2018
"Governors' Ratings" - by Jim Ellis   July 17, 2018   A new set of Governors' race ratings were released from the Governing website yesterday http://www.governing.com/governor-races-2018 and while nine of the 36 campaigns are placed in the toss-up cate... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/17/2018 10:06:02 AM

Feinstein Loses   7/16/2018
"Feinstein Loses" - by Jim Ellis   July 16, 2018   Five-term Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) lost the official California Democratic Party endorsement to her general election rival and fellow Democrat, state Senator Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles), this weekend in Oak... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/16/2018 9:21:48 AM

Crowley: Still on the Ballot   7/13/2018
"Crowley:  Still on the Ballot" - by Jim Ellis   July 13, 2018   As has been extensively covered in the national media, Democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez upset ten-term Rep. Joe Crowley (D-Queens) in the June 26th New York federal primary, but... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/13/2018 10:03:00 AM

Gauging the Enthusiasm Gap   7/12/2018
"Gauging the Enthusiasm Gap" - by Jim Ellis   July 12, 2018   Much has been written over the past few elections cycles about voting enthusiasm and whether it is a predictive political factor. It has been seemingly apparent that the party members most intereste... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/12/2018 10:42:48 AM

Senate: 13 Interesting Polls   7/11/2018
"Senate:  13 Interesting Polls" - by Jim Ellis   July 11, 2018   The Survey Monkey organization polling for the Axios Media news and information website went into the field during the June 11 - July 2 period to test US Senate campaigns in 13 different sta... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/11/2018 9:55:47 AM

Supreme Politics   7/10/2018
"Supreme Politics" - by Jim Ellis   July 10, 2018   President Donald Trump's choice of US Circuit Judge of the DC Court of Appeals Brett Kavanaugh to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy will likely fundamentally change the 2018 Senate el... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/10/2018 9:16:40 AM

Both Ahead 17   7/9/2018
"Both Ahead 17" - by Jim Ellis   July 9, 2018   It's not particularly unusual to find a political race where different pollsters see separate leaders in an election contest, but the open Florida Republican primary Governor's campaign may be setting a n... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/9/2018 9:42:04 AM

Recapping the Opens   7/6/2018
"Recapping the Opens" - by Jim Ellis   July 6, 2018   Last Saturday's election of Republican Michael Cloud (R-Victoria) to fill the vacant southeast Texas district (TX-27; Farenthold resignation) reduced the total number of open House seats from 65 to 64.... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/6/2018 11:34:34 AM

Poll: Nunes Race Competitive   7/5/2018
"Poll:  Nunes Race Competitive" - by Jim Ellis   July 5, 2018   A new Public Policy Polling survey conducted for the liberal group, End Citizens United (6/22-24; 632 CA registered voters), finds Democratic challenger Andrew Janz closing the gap between he... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/5/2018 9:44:58 AM

New Nevada Poll - Mixed #'s   7/3/2018
"New Nevada Poll - Mixed #'s" - by Jim Ellis   July 3, 2018   Gravis Marketing released their latest Nevada statewide poll (6/23-26; 630 NV likely voters "using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses"), and the findin... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/3/2018 9:53:31 AM

Cloud Wins Special   7/2/2018
"Cloud Wins Special" - by Jim Ellis   July 2, 2018   Perhaps the most unique special election from a long series of 2017-18 irregular voting contests just wrapped up this weekend in southeast Texas, capping a subdued political battle that attracted little nati... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/2/2018 9:53:29 AM

Rep. Crowley Gone? Not So Fast; 7-State Results   6/27/2018
"Rep. Crowley Gone?  Not So Fast; 7-State Results" - by Jim Ellis   June 27, 2018   In the surprise of last night's voting, ten-term Rep. Joe Crowley (D-Queens), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and the Queens County Democratic Party, lost... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/27/2018 10:04:16 AM

The June 26th Primaries - Part II   6/26/2018
"The June 26th Primaries - Part II" - by Jim Ellis   June 26, 2018   Today is primary election day Colorado, Oklahoma, South Carolina (run-off), New York (federal) and Utah. In this report, we review Utah and New York.   Utah The big race on t... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/26/2018 8:10:56 AM

The June 26th Primaries - Part I   6/25/2018
"The June 26th Primaries - Part I" - by Jim Ellis   June 25, 2018   Five more states vote in nominating primaries or run-off elections tomorrow, three of which we preview today: Colorado, Oklahoma, and South Carolina (run-off). Tomorrow, we'll look at the... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/25/2018 9:45:56 AM

Mountain Polling   6/22/2018
"Mountain Polling" - by Jim Ellis   June 22, 2018   Utah Senate The June 26th Utah state primary is Tuesday, and we have finally seen a poll testing former presidential nominee Mitt Romney in his run for the open Senate seat that the venerable Orrin Hatch... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/22/2018 9:57:06 AM

Poll: Manchin Up; Questions Arise   6/21/2018
"Poll:  Manchin Up; Questions Arise" - by Jim Ellis   June 21, 2018   Monmouth University just released their new West Virginia statewide survey testing the important US Senate race between Sen. Joe Manchin (D) and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), b... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/21/2018 9:45:08 AM

They're Still Counting   6/20/2018
"They're Still Counting" - by Jim Ellis   June 20, 2018   Even in the age of advanced technology, vote counting can be a surprisingly long process. Despite political primaries being conducted weeks ago in California (June 5th) and Maine (June12th), electio... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/20/2018 10:34:15 AM

Wisconsin Gerrymandering Ruling; Greitens Still Lingering   6/19/2018
"Wisconsin Gerrymandering Ruling; Greitens Still Lingering" - by Jim Ellis   June 19, 2018   The United States Supreme Court issued their long-awaited ruling on the Wisconsin political gerrymandering case yesterday, and it basically sends the parties back to t... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/19/2018 7:15:49 AM

Senate Ratings   6/18/2018
"Senate Ratings" - by Jim Ellis   June 18, 2018   Two organizations just released 2018 US Senate race ratings, and though the differences are few it is worth analyzing their aggregate comparison against our own BIPAC campaign rankings.    Fox... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/18/2018 9:55:45 AM

SC-1: Dems With a Chance?   6/15/2018
"SC-1:  Dems With a Chance?" - by Jim Ellis   June 15, 2018    A day after US Representative and former Governor Mark Sanford (R-Charleston) was denied re-nomination, becoming the second incumbent in this election cycle to fall before the national vo... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/15/2018 9:34:20 AM

The Instant Run-Off   6/14/2018
"The Instant Run-Off" - by Jim Ellis   June 14, 2018    An interesting situation is developing from the still-in-progress Maine primary that could become a test case for either changing or instituting state run-off electoral systems.    ... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/14/2018 10:42:40 AM

Sanford Ousted; 5-State Primary Results   6/13/2018
"Sanford Ousted; 5-State Primary Results" - by Jim Ellis   June 13, 2018    South Carolina In a race that centered upon South Carolina Congressman and former Governor Mark Sanford's open opposition to President Trump, state Rep. Katie Arrington (R... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/13/2018 9:49:13 AM

California Still Counting   6/12/2018
"California Still Counting" - by Jim Ellis   June 12, 2018    48th CD Still Undecided The notoriously long California vote counting system continues to grind along, but the only major election still in doubt is in the 48th Congressional District, a se... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/12/2018 9:32:23 AM

Tuesday Primary Preview   6/11/2018
"Tuesday Primary Preview" - by Jim Ellis   June 11, 2018    Tomorrow brings another set of primaries, this time from five states: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Virginia.   Maine Sen. Angus King (I) stands for a second t... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/11/2018 10:23:40 AM

Latest Developments   6/7/2018
"Latest Developments" by Jim Ellis   June 7, 2018    Featuring eight primaries and the Minnesota political party endorsing conventions immediately preceding the state's candidate filing deadline, the week has brought a whirlwind of political activity.... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/7/2018 9:25:49 AM

Big Primary Results   6/6/2018
"Big Primary Results" by Jim Ellis   June 6, 2018    Voters chose their general election nominees in eight states last night with most races ending as predicted, though a few surprises also occurred.   Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey scored an outr... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/6/2018 9:53:04 AM

Big Primary Preview - Part II   6/5/2018
"Big Primary Preview - Part II" by Jim Ellis   June 5, 2018   Today, we look at the final three states whose voters will choose nominees this evening.    California Perhaps the most interesting vote occurs in California, where the top-two... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/5/2018 9:01:38 AM

Big Primary Preview - Part I   6/4/2018
"Big Primary Preview - Part I" by Jim Ellis   June 4, 2018    Tomorrow, individuals in eight states will choose nominees for the 2018 general election in the single primary election day with the largest number of voters participating.   Today... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/4/2018 9:11:44 AM

California Intrigue   6/1/2018
"California Intrigue" by Jim Ellis   June 1, 2018    In 2010, Golden State voters adopted a ballot proposition that changed the state's primary system. As we have often noted in articles about the state's political campaigns, the primary is now a... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/1/2018 9:21:49 AM

AZ Senate: Filing Closes; New Poll   5/31/2018
"AZ Senate:  Filing Closes; New Poll" by Jim Ellis   May 31, 2018    Candidate filing closed in Arizona yesterday for the state's August 28th primary election, and the US Senate candidate fields are now set. Little in the way of surprise, and bar... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/31/2018 9:19:01 AM

Poll: New Jersey Closing   5/30/2018
"Poll: New Jersey Closing" by Jim Ellis   May 30, 2018   A new curious poll was released right before the Memorial Day break that suggests the New Jersey Senate race is already closing.    Since presumed Republican nominee Bob Hugin, the form... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/30/2018 9:19:12 AM

Rep. Garrett Reverses Course   5/29/2018
"Rep. Garrett Reverses Course" by Jim Ellis   May 29, 2018    Late last week, with rumors swirling that Virginia freshman Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Scottsville/Charlottesville) would not seek a second term, the Congressman called a news conference to announce t... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/29/2018 10:35:11 AM

False Alarm   5/25/2018
"False Alarm" by Jim Ellis   May 25, 2018    Earlier this week, the news media was filled with stories that freshman Virginia Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Scottsville/Charlottesville) was about to announce his retirement, but the conventional wisdom was thwarted a... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/25/2018 9:52:31 AM

Through May: Setting November   5/24/2018
"Through May:  Setting November" by Jim Ellis   May 24, 2018    We have now completed primaries in 13 states. Therefore, we can review the key run-off and general election pairings that these primaries produced.   Arkansas: Gov. Asa Hutc... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/24/2018 10:18:21 AM

Primary Results   5/23/2018
"Primary Results" by Jim Ellis   May 23, 2018    Yesterday, voters in four states cast their votes in nomination elections. Today, we look at the results from Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas.    Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/23/2018 9:48:12 AM

Texas Run-offs Today   5/22/2018
TX Run-offs Today    Thirteen significant Lone Star State political run-offs will be decided today, thus ending the nomination process that began with the Texas primary election back on March 6th.    In the Governor’s race, Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Vald... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/22/2018 11:50:50 AM

May 22nd Primary Review   5/21/2018
"May 22nd Primary Review" by Jim Ellis   May 21, 2018    Another four states will host regular primaries tomorrow night. Today, we look at Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky. On Tuesday, we will preview the Texas run-offs.   Arkansas The Nat... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/21/2018 9:35:26 AM

Two New Senate Polls   5/18/2018
"Two New Senate Polls" by Jim Ellis   May 18, 2018    Indiana Gravis Marketing went into the field two days after the Indiana primary ended to test the new general election pairing between Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) and former state Representative and busi... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/18/2018 10:16:01 AM

Post-Primary: Setting the Stage   5/17/2018
"Post-Primary: Setting the Stage" by Jim Ellis   May 17, 2018    Now that the dust is settling from the May 15th primary, we can firmly look at which of the races have already produced November winners and the match-ups for what will be key toss-up races.... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/17/2018 10:33:01 AM

Some Predictable; Some Close   5/16/2018
"Some Predictable; Some Close" by Jim Ellis   May 16, 2018   Voters in Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho, and Oregon went to the polls yesterday and chose nominees for the general election.    In the Keystone State, state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-Yor... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/16/2018 8:30:28 AM

Major Pennsylvania Primary on Tap Today   5/15/2018
"Major Pennsylvania Primary on Tap Today" by Jim Ellis   May 15, 2018   Voters in the Keystone State go to the polls throughout the day to choose partisan nominees for Governor, US Senator, and in their 18 new US House Districts.    The Gover... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/15/2018 9:28:07 AM

May Primaries: Round 2   5/14/2018
"May Primaries:  Round 2" by Jim Ellis   May 14, 2018    Voters in four more states go to the polls to choose their nominees on Tuesday. Today, we cover Idaho, Nebraska, and Oregon. Tomorrow, we will preview the major Pennsylvania primary.  ... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/14/2018 9:36:15 AM

Top-Two Reverberations   5/11/2018
"Top-Two Reverberations" by Jim Ellis   May 11, 2018    Back in 2010, when initiators of changing the California primary system to feature a jungle format where the top two finishers advance to the general election regardless of percentage attained and pa... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/11/2018 10:55:33 AM

Big Primary Results   5/9/2018
"Big Primary Results" by Jim Ellis   May 9, 2018   Voters in four states made their preliminary electoral statements known last night, choosing nominees in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia in the 2018 election cycle's first multi-state prim... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/9/2018 8:30:52 AM

Two More Primaries Today - Ohio and West Virginia   5/8/2018
"Two More Primaries Today - Ohio and West Virginia" by Jim Ellis   May 8, 2018   Ohio Buckeye State voters will choose nominees in the open Governor and challenger US Senate campaigns today, along with taking the first step toward filling the vacant 12th C... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/8/2018 9:01:49 AM

Indiana-North Carolina Primary Review   5/7/2018
"Indiana - North Carolina Primary Review" by Jim Ellis   May 7, 2018   Indiana With no Governor's race on the ballot this year, the Republican Senate nomination campaign tops the Indiana political card tomorrow, which is one of the more interesting cam... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/7/2018 9:42:09 AM

Ohio Poll: Heading for Primary Day   5/4/2018
"Ohio Poll:  Heading for Primary Day" by Jim Ellis   May 4, 2018   The May 8th primary featuring voting in Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia is now only days away, and Berea, Ohio's Baldwin Wallace University just released a new survey... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/4/2018 9:51:36 AM

Lamborn Reinstated; Problems in MI-1   5/3/2018
"Lamborn Reinstated; Problems in MI-1" by Jim Ellis   May 3, 2018   A Colorado federal court judge has reinstated Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) to the 5th Congressional District Republican primary ballot, in a ruling issued late Monday night. The judg... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/3/2018 10:17:38 AM

Grayson Returns   5/2/2018
"Grayson Returns" by Jim Ellis   May 2, 2018   Acerbic former Congressman Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) officially announced his political comeback yesterday after creating subterfuge about which congressional contest he would actually enter.    O... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/2/2018 10:04:15 AM

Looking at the Governors   5/1/2018
"Looking at the Governors" by Jim Ellis   May 1, 2018   Now just a week away from the major primaries beginning, it's a good time to set the stage for the important 36 gubernatorial campaigns that will be settled in November. Beginning on May 8th, voters i... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/1/2018 9:27:45 AM

The Coming New Specials   4/30/2018
"The Coming New Specials" by Jim Ellis   April 30, 2018   Just when we thought the number of special elections was lessening when Debbie Lesko won the AZ-8 election last week to replace resigned Arizona Rep. Trent Franks (R-Peoria) new vacancies are popping up... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/30/2018 10:30:54 AM

The Coming Primaries   4/27/2018
"The Coming Primaries" by Jim Ellis   April 27, 2018   Completing the Arizona special congressional election earlier this week is the precursor to the beginning of the primary season's most prolific period: the nomination voting scheduled for May and June.... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/27/2018 9:45:46 AM

WV: Conflicting Polls   4/26/2018
"WV: Conflicting Polls" by Jim Ellis   April 26, 2018   The nomination races in the May 8th primary states are heating up as Election Day draws near, and one of the more interesting campaigns is in West Virginia. There, three major Republican candidates are vy... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/26/2018 10:16:46 AM

AZ-8: Lesko Wins   4/25/2018
"AZ-8:  Lesko Wins" by Jim Ellis   April 25, 2018   Arizona Republican former state Senate President Debbie Lesko defeated physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) last night, 53-47%, to win the vacant 8th District seat that former Rep. Trent Franks (R-Peoria) resig... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/25/2018 10:04:33 AM

Rep. Lamborn Disqualified; AZ-8 Today   4/24/2018
"Rep. Lamborn Disqualified; AZ-8 Today" by Jim Ellis   April 24, 2018   CO-5 Late yesterday afternoon, the Colorado state Supreme Court, reversing a lower court opinion, disqualified Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) from the June 26th primary ballot.... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/24/2018 9:18:05 AM

Romney Forced to Primary; Curtis, Too   4/23/2018
"Romney Forced to Primary; Curtis, Too" by Jim Ellis   April 23, 2018   Over the weekend, delegates to the Utah state Republican Party nominating convention gathered in the Maverik Center, an arena that is home to the minor league Utah Grizzlies hockey club in... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/23/2018 9:47:04 AM

Counting the Money   4/20/2018
"Counting the Money" by Jim Ellis   April 20, 2018   The new first quarter Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure reports are now in the public domain, and the Daily Kos Elections website has compiled the financial statistics for all the competitive r... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/20/2018 9:59:56 AM

Indiana: Wild and Entertaining   4/19/2018
"Indiana:  Wild and Entertaining" by Jim Ellis   April 19, 2018   A new Gravis Marketing survey (4/6-11; 411 IN likely voters) produced a result in the Senate Republican primary ballot test that appears to have even surprised the pollsters.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/19/2018 10:16:22 AM

New Arizona Senate Data   4/18/2018
"New Arizona Senate Data" by Jim Ellis   April 18, 2018   Magellan Strategies independently surveyed the Arizona Republican electorate (4/11-12 and 15; 755 AZ likely Republican primary voters) to test the state's upcoming Senate race, along with Sen. John... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/18/2018 9:58:07 AM

Stapleton In; Coffman Out   4/17/2018
"Stapleton In; Coffman Out" by Jim Ellis   April 17, 2018   CO-Governor Colorado Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R), the wife of US Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora), launched a campaign for Governor in September, but her effort ended over the weekend when sh... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/17/2018 9:30:13 AM

Top Two Playing Havoc   4/16/2018
"Top Two Playing Havoc" by Jim Ellis   April 16, 2018   Sponsors of the 2010 California ballot initiative that would change the state's primary system from a closed one to a structure that sends the top two finishers to the general election regardless of p... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/16/2018 10:05:22 AM

Missouri's Dead Heat   4/13/2018
"Missouri's Dead Heat" by Jim Ellis   April 13, 2018   Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted a new poll of the Missouri electorate (4/4-6; 625 MO registered voters) and confirmed what most political observers already believe to be the case. That is,... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/13/2018 9:55:14 AM

Ryan's Departure: Ramifications   4/12/2018
"Ryan's Departure:  Ramifications" by Jim Ellis   April 12, 2018   As we know, Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) announced his retirement yesterday, and even more change can be presumed coming to Capitol Hill as a result.    In the short term... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/12/2018 9:33:03 AM

Three House Polls   4/11/2018
"Three House Polls" by Jim Ellis   April 11, 2018   New polls were released in three US House polls that will likely develop into competitive races come November. The CA-10 contest featuring Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock/Modesto) was always slated to be a top ti... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/11/2018 10:09:15 AM

Florida Senate Race: Now Official   4/10/2018
"Florida Senate Race:  Now Official" by Jim Ellis   April 10, 2018   Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) yesterday made official what everyone believed was happening for more than a year: him launching a challenger offensive against three-term Sen. Bill Nelson (D... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/10/2018 9:21:45 AM

Another Resignation; North Dakota Convention   4/9/2018
"Another Resignation; North Dakota Convention" by Jim Ellis   April 9, 2018   TX-27 Four-term Texas Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi), who had shelved his plan to run for re-election well before the March 6th state primary largely due to details ste... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/9/2018 10:07:47 AM

Pawlenty In   4/6/2018
"Pawlenty In" by Jim Ellis   April 6, 2018   Yesterday, Minnesota former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who briefly became a presidential candidate in 2012, ventured back into the active campaign world. Though routinely indicating that he had "retired" from... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/6/2018 9:35:32 AM

Indiana in Full Throttle   4/5/2018
"Indiana in Full Throttle" by Jim Ellis   April 5, 2018   Now just over a month before the May 8th Indiana Republican Senate primary, the three major candidates are simultaneously hitting the airwaves.   Not surprisingly in campaigning before the... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/5/2018 10:39:31 AM

Rep. Esty to Retire   4/3/2018
"Rep. Esty to Retire" by Jim Ellis   April 3, 2018   CT-5 Yesterday afternoon, three-term Connecticut Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D-Cheshire/ Waterbury), under fire for not responding to her chief of staff's sexual and physical abuse of another staff member t... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/3/2018 9:29:02 AM

VA, SC Filings; Majority Done   4/2/2018
"VA, SC Filings; Majority Done" by Jim Ellis   April 2, 2018   As March ended, the two most recent filing states of Virginia and South Carolina reached their declaration deadline. We now see a majority of domains (28) posting a final set of political contender... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/2/2018 9:52:38 AM

"Match-Ups Forming" by Jim Ellis   March 30, 2018   Only two primaries are in the books, but already we appear to have clear Senate match-ups forming in as many as 14 statewide races.   Below are the races that look set as general election campaig... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/30/2018 9:55:41 AM

Balancing the Scale   3/29/2018
"Balancing the Scale" by Jim Ellis   March 29, 2018   The Hill newspaper released an article late yesterday afternoon entitled, "GOP Seeks to Avoid Dem Upset in Arizona" http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/380722-gop-seeks-to-avoid-dem-upset-in-ariz... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/29/2018 10:03:50 AM

Dems Now Need 23   3/28/2018
"Dems Now Need 23" by Jim Ellis   March 28, 2018   PA-6 It appears that Pennsylvania Rep. Ryan Costello (R-West Chester) is turning over a projected swing 2018 electoral seat to the Democrats without so much as a fight. Doing so will reduce the net number... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/28/2018 9:56:25 AM

Rare Ohio Data   3/27/2018
"Rare Ohio Data" by Jim Ellis   March 27, 2018   Survey USA came into Ohio to test the Buckeye statewide races, campaigns that have not yet received much attention from national political pollsters. The results provided both expected and surprising tallies. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/27/2018 8:09:17 AM

Pennsylvania Files - Part II   3/26/2018
"Pennsylvania Files - Part II" by Jim Ellis   March 26, 2018   Today we finish our look at the new Pennsylvania filings from Districts 10 thru 18, but first must mention a new story floating in the Washington Post and throughout the local Philadelphia media.&n... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/26/2018 9:54:41 AM

Pennsylvania Files - Part 1   3/23/2018
"Pennsylvania Files - Part 1" by Jim Ellis   March 23, 2018   After the three-judge federal panel and the US Supreme Court both rejected Republican legal appeals to overturn the new state Supreme Court-imposed congressional map, candidates submitted their offi... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/23/2018 9:23:59 AM

Senator Appointed; Controversy Arises   3/22/2018
"Senator Appointed; Controversy Arises" by Jim Ellis   March 22, 2018   Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant (R) at an event in the new Senator-designee's home community of Brookhaven, a town of 12,000+ people located due south of Jackson on Interstate 55, announc... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/22/2018 10:53:18 AM

Illinois Results   3/21/2018
"Illinois Results" by Jim Ellis   March 21, 2018   Last night's big stories in the Illinois primary were Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) having a difficult time in winning a close Republican primary, and Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) just barely surviving hi... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/21/2018 9:06:09 AM

Illinois Primary Today   3/20/2018
"Illinois Primary Today" by Jim Ellis   March 20, 2018   Land of Lincoln voters go to the polls today in the nation's second primary of the 2018 midterm election season.    Leading the ticket is the gubernatorial primary, as Gov. Bruce Ra... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/20/2018 9:23:58 AM

Rep. Slaughter Passes; Heller Dodges Primary   3/19/2018
"Rep. Slaughter Passes; Heller Dodges Primary" by Jim Ellis   March 19, 2018   NY-25 Veteran New York Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-Rochester) who, at 88 years of age was the oldest member of the House of Representatives, passed away on Friday after suffering a... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/19/2018 10:07:48 AM

Pennsylvania: Lamb, Saccone Decide; Others, Too   3/16/2018
"Pennsylvania: Lamb, Saccone Decide; Others, Too" by Jim Ellis   March 16, 2018   Though Tuesday's special election results in western Pennsylvania are not even finalized, the two candidates, and others, are making decisions about where to run in the regul... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/16/2018 9:47:38 AM

Wicker Dodges McDaniel   3/15/2018
"Wicker Dodges McDaniel" by Jim Ellis   March 15, 2018   Just before the Mississippi candidate filing deadline approached on March 1st, state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville), who came within 1,719 votes of denying Sen. Thad Cochran (R) re-nomination in the... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/15/2018 8:28:10 AM

Update: Lamb, Barely   3/14/2018
"Update: Lamb, Barely" by Jim Ellis   March 14, 2018   PA-18 Democrat Conor Lamb appears to have captured the 18th District special election last night in southwestern Pennsylvania, but it will likely be several days before the result is finalized. The mar... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/14/2018 12:27:51 PM

PA-18 Today   3/13/2018
"PA-18 Today" by Jim Ellis    March 13, 2018    The Keystone State special congressional election will be decided today as southwestern Pennsylvania voters go to the polls to choose a replacement for resigned Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pittsburgh). Democrats... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/13/2018 8:38:34 AM

The California Candidates   3/12/2018
"The California Candidates" by Jim Ellis    March 12, 2018    Candidate filing closed on Friday, and the California jungle primary scheduled for June 5th will be a crowded affair.    Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), seeking a fifth full t... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/12/2018 10:09:05 AM

Rs Up in Dubious Senate Polls   3/9/2018
"Rs Up in Dubious Senate Polls" by Jim Ellis    March 9, 2018   One of the keys to deciding the 2018 Senate election cycle is seeing how the ten Democratic Senators forced to defend states that President Trump carried will fare. A series of new Axios/Surv... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/9/2018 10:06:57 AM

New Poll Confirms Toss-Up   3/8/2018
"New Poll Confirms Toss-Up" by Jim Ellis    March 8, 2018    PA-18  Between the Texas primary on Tuesday past and the Illinois state primary on March 20th, the PA-18 special election will be decided on March 13th. And, as the two candidates,... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/8/2018 10:17:52 AM

The Texas Results   3/7/2018
"The Texas Results" by Jim Ellis    March 7, 2018    The 2018 election cycle's first regular primary results are in the books, and the Texas electorate largely performed in its typical fashion last night.   Democrats were citing that... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/7/2018 9:32:34 AM

The Swap   3/6/2018
"The Swap" by Jim Ellis    March 6, 2018    The California candidate filing deadline is Friday, and we are beginning to see some complicated political moves crystallize as we get closer to final decision time.   In the state's Centra... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/6/2018 8:50:59 AM

Primary Season Begins Tomorrow   3/5/2018
"Primary Season Begins Tomorrow" by Jim Ellis    March 5, 2018     The 2018 primaries begin tomorrow, as Texans will complete their voting process for the first-in-the-nation midterm primary.    The Lone Star State political ca... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/5/2018 10:01:12 AM

Cramer Up   3/2/2018
"Cramer Up" by Jim Ellis    March 2, 2018     ND-Senate   A new Tarrance Group poll (2/18-20; 500 ND likely registered voters) conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee finds at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck)... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/2/2018 10:15:37 AM

McDaniel In   3/1/2018
"McDaniel In" by Jim Ellis    March 1, 2018     MS-Senate   Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) announced at a rally yesterday that he will challenge Sen. Roger Wicker (R) in the June 5th Republican primary. Mr. McD... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/1/2018 9:37:50 AM

AZ 8 Results   2/28/2018
"AZ 8 Results" by Jim Ellis    February 28, 2018     Voters in the West Valley of Maricopa County went to the polls yesterday, and throughout the early voting period, to cast their ballots for special election nominees to replace resigned Rep. T... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/28/2018 10:23:40 AM

Surprising California House Non-Endorsements   2/27/2018
"Surprising California House Non-Endorsements" by Jim Ellis    February 27, 2018    Yesterday, we reported that the California Democratic Party state convention delegates snubbed veteran Sen. Dianne Feinstein by not officially endorsing her for re-el... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/27/2018 10:30:48 AM

California: Democrats Maneuver in San Diego   2/26/2018
- "California:  Democrats Maneuver in San Diego" by Jim Ellis  -  February 26, 2018 - CA-Senate - Two noteworthy Democratic happenings emanated from San Diego during the past few days. - First, the California Democratic Party state convention, meeting i... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/26/2018 9:59:38 AM

Indictment Politics   2/23/2018
- "Indictment Politics" by Jim Ellis - February 23, 2018 - Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) was indicted yesterday on one count of felony invasion of privacy.  The photograph of a partially nude woman with whom he was having an affair is the subject of the felony charge.&nb... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/23/2018 8:54:37 AM

Setting the Stage - TX Primary   2/22/2018
"Setting the Stage - TX Primary" by Jim Ellis    February 22, 2018    We're now inside two weeks before the first-in-the-nation regular midterm primary election, as the Texas early voting process is now well underway in preparation for the March... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/22/2018 10:38:47 AM

More on Pennsylvania   2/21/2018
"More on Pennsylvania" by Jim Ellis    February 21, 2018    A day after the court-imposed Pennsylvania congressional map was instituted, much action is occurring in and around the new districts. A more in depth look at the now available political num... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/21/2018 9:42:31 AM

Pennsylvania Map Released   2/20/2018
"Pennsylvania Map Released" by Jim Ellis    February 20, 2018     The Pennsylvania Supreme Court placed into law a new congressional map, thereby completing their assumption of legislative redistricting duties, and with it bringing questions per... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/20/2018 10:24:37 AM

The Tennessee Backtrack   2/16/2018
"The Tennessee Backtrack" by Jim Ellis    February 16, 2018     In late September, Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) announced that he would not seek a third term in 2018, saying he wanted to work "thoughtfully and independently" for the months r... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/16/2018 9:48:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: Filing Deadlines   2/15/2018
"Filing Deadlines" by Jim Ellis    February 15, 2018     Seven states have already set their candidate slate for the coming primary election season. When March ends, more than half the country (28 states) will have followed suit.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/15/2018 10:06:02 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate News   2/14/2018
"Senate News" by Jim Ellis    February 14, 2018     North Dakota   The North Dakota US Senate campaign is on the precipice of drastic change. Earlier in the week, at-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) indicated that he was reco... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/14/2018 10:42:16 AM

BIPAC Daily: More Filings Close   2/13/2018
- More Filings Close - February 13, 2018 - by Jim Ellis - Two more states now have their official candidates for the 2018 election, bringing the national total to seven. Alabama and Indiana join the rank of early filing states that include Illinois, Texas, Kentucky, West Virginia, and... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/13/2018 3:55:38 PM

BIPAC Daily: Retirement Mode Returns   2/12/2018
"Retirement Mode Returns"   February 12, 2018   by Jim Ellis    MN-8 After a respite from House retirements for a little more than a week, yet another announcement came on Friday. Veteran Minnesota Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Crosby/ Duluth) made public a decision not to seek a fourth... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/13/2018 3:53:11 PM

BIPAC Daily: Ohio Files   2/9/2018
- Ohio Files - February 9, 2018 - by Jim Ellis - - The candidate filing deadline passed late this week, becoming the fifth state to set its political contenders for the coming midterm election. All of the expected gubernatorial candidates filed, meaning we will see a crowded Democra... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/9/2018 5:57:05 PM

BIPAC Daily: A Florida Polling Bonanza   2/8/2018
- A Florida Polling Bonanza - February 8, 2018 - by Jim Ellis - - The 2018 Florida Senate race is on the cusp of becoming one of the top political campaigns in the country, but polling has been scarce...until yesterday. - - Three different pollsters released data from their r... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/9/2018 5:52:31 PM

BIPAC Daily: NJ-11: A Consensus Forming   2/7/2018
- NJ-11: A Consensus Forming - February 7, 2018 - by Jim Ellis - House Appropriations Committee chairman and New Jersey Congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen's (R-Morristown) surprise retirement announcement last week was initially met with cheers from the national Democratic establish... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/9/2018 5:49:56 PM

BIPAC Daily: An Open Review - Part 2   2/6/2018
- An Open Review - Part 2 - February 6, 2018 - by Jim Ellis - Continuing our look at the 53 open seats, today we look at those in the Lean R & D categories. It is here where Democrats will have to score big if they are to claim the House majority. - - Yesterday, the US Supr... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/9/2018 5:47:23 PM

BIPAC Daily: An Open Review – Part I   2/5/2018
- An Open Review – Part I - February 5, 2018 - by Jim Ellis - With so many House retirements coming into focus within the last several weeks, it is a good time to review the list of 53 districts heading into their next election without an incumbent on the ballot. - - Of t... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/9/2018 5:44:45 PM

BIPAC Daily: Two Major Pre-Announcements   2/2/2018
- Two Major Pre-Announcements - February 2, 2018 - by Jim Ellis - A pair of major Republican figures yesterday made public that likely candidate declarations will be forthcoming in mid-February. - - In Utah, a spokesperson for former Republican presidential nominee and ex-Massa... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/9/2018 5:41:46 PM

BIPAC Daily: Two More   2/1/2018
- Two More - February 1, 2018 - by Jim Ellis - The cavalcade of US House retirements continued yesterday with two more well known veteran members, one from each party, making public their intention to retire from Congress. - Counting this latest pair, the number of Represen... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/9/2018 5:39:11 PM

BIPAC Daily: Democratic Primary Action   1/31/2018
Democratic Primary Action January 31, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   FL-5   A day after Florida former Rep. Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville) reported to prison to serve her sentence for public corruption, her successor, Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee), drew a major Democratic... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/31/2018 10:13:42 AM

BIPAC Daily: No. 51   1/30/2018
No. 51 January 30, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   The number of House open seats continues to grow.  Yesterday, veteran New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morristown), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, announced that he will not seek a 13th term later this... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/30/2018 8:03:03 AM

BIPAC Daily: Ohio's Red Leap   1/29/2018
Ohio's Red Leap January 29, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   Thought of as one of the key swing states in American politics since the turn of the century, President Trump’s stronger than expected eight point Buckeye State victory in the 2016 presidential race proved eye opening... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/29/2018 8:25:22 AM

BIPAC Daily: Meehan to Go   1/26/2018
Meehan to Go January 26, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   The alleged sexual harassment situation involving four-term Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford) culminated with his retirement announcement, yesterday.   In a letter to Speaker Paul Ryan and his local Republi... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/26/2018 7:48:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: Kansas' New Race   1/25/2018
Kansas' New Race January 25, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   Two happenings occurred yesterday that drastically change the Kansas gubernatorial race.  -   - First, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) won confirmation as President Trump’s Ambassador-at large for Internationa... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/25/2018 7:49:31 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Pennsylvania Fallout   1/23/2018
The Pennsylvania Fallout January 23, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   Redistricting Decision; PA-18; Rep. Meehan -   - Redistricting -   - Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, on a vote of 4-3, invalidated the state’s congressional map due to political g... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/23/2018 8:02:53 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Pre-Redistricting Wars   1/22/2018
The Pre-Redistricting Wars January 22, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   Though we are in the fourth election cycle of the decade, the 2011 redistricting fights are still continuing.  The US Supreme Court has been dealing with redistricting cases from five states, but it all cou... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/22/2018 8:29:57 AM

BIPAC Daily: Minnesota Becoming Battleground   1/19/2018
Minnesota Becoming Battleground January 19, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   A new political poll is providing more evidence that Minnesota is very much in play for the coming election.  Analysts were surprised in 2016 when President Trump came within one percentage point of to... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/19/2018 8:53:20 AM

BIPAC Daily: Looking at the Opens   1/18/2018
Looking at the Opens January 18, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   Considering the large number of House retirements that came swiftly late last year and just as 2018 began, it is a good time to review the 49 seats that will have no incumbent running in the next election.   T... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/18/2018 8:11:11 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Candidates 2018 – Part II   1/17/2018
Senate Candidates 2018 – Part II January 17, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   We continue with our two-part series reviewing the announced candidate status in each state.  Yesterday, Minnesota former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) a... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/17/2018 8:25:41 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Candidates 2018 – Part I   1/16/2018
Senate Candidates 2018 – Part I January 16, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   As we continue setting the stage for the 2018 midterms now that we are in the actual election year, in a two-part series, we review the announced candidate status in each state, since much has changed in t... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/16/2018 8:39:57 AM

BIPAC Daily: Redistricting Recap   1/15/2018
Redistricting Recap January 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Late last week, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear the Texas Republicans’ appeal of a San Antonio three-judge panel’s ruling that declared two of the state’s districts: TX-27 (Rep. Blake Farenthold, R-Cor... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/15/2018 9:17:43 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Ohio Ins and Outs   1/12/2018
The Ohio Ins and Outs January 12, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   Since the turn of the century, the state of Ohio has become crucial in deciding national elections and its status for 2018 is no exception.  This week, several key moves were made that begin to define the genera... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/12/2018 8:14:06 AM

BIPAC Daily: Arizona Breaking; North Carolina Map, Again   1/10/2018
Arizona Breaking; North Carolina Map, Again January 10, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   AZ-Senate   Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio yesterday made a political move r... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/10/2018 9:01:39 AM

BIPAC Daily: Monday’s Retirement   1/9/2018
Monday’s Retirement January 9, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   CA-39   It’s getting to the point where literally everyday we witness a new retirement announcement from Congress, and yesterday was no... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/9/2018 8:26:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: An Ohio Curveball   1/8/2018
An Ohio Curveball January 8, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   Most people believed the 2018 Ohio Senate general election would be a re-match of the 2012 contest, but now big changes are afoot.  On Friday, presumed Republican nominee Josh Mandel, the Ohio State Treasurer, announ... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/8/2018 9:32:59 AM

BIPAC Daily: New Year House Preview   1/5/2018
New Year House Preview January 5, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   Continuing our federal race outlook to set the political stage in this first week of the actual midterm election year, we now turn to the House races.  -   - Republicans have a 24-seat margin (counting the... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/5/2018 8:42:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: New Year Senate Preview - Part II   1/4/2018
New Year Senate Preview - Part II January 4, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   The Democrats -   - Continuing our New Year’s preview, today we look at the 2018 Senate races from the Democrats’ perspective. -   - Because they are now defending 26 of the 34... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/4/2018 8:25:23 AM

BIPAC Daily:   1/3/2018
New Year Senate Preview - Part I January 3, 2018 By: Jim Ellis   The Republicans   Now that we are officially in election year 2018, it is a good time to set the stage for the coming campaign season.  With Democrat Doug Jones converting the Alabama special e... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/3/2018 8:48:56 AM

BIPAC Daily: Gainers and Losers   12/22/2017
Gainers and Losers December 22, 2017 By: Jim Ellis - The Census Bureau just released their year-end population estimates and we again see a familiar pattern with regard to populace ebbs and flows.  People are continuing to relocate south and west, while the Midwest and nort... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/22/2017 10:02:04 AM

BIPAC Daily: Southern Polls   12/21/2017
Southern Polls December 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   If the Democrats are going to make a concerted run at the Senate majority, they must protect all ten, and possibly eleven, of their vulnerable states, and then convert both the Arizona and Nevada Republican seats.  Or, the... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/21/2017 9:14:47 AM

BIPAC Daily: The One-Vote Victory; TX Challenge   12/20/2017
The One-Vote Victory; TX Challenge December 20, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Virginia   It now appears that an incredible finish has occurred in the Virginia state elections even though voting ended six weeks ago.  The House of Delegates’ majority has com... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/20/2017 9:26:17 AM

BIPAC Daily: Democratic Enthusiasm: Overblown?   12/19/2017
Democratic Enthusiasm: Overblown? December 19, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   In attempting to objectively look at the current electorate now one year before the next election, is Democratic enthusiasm about the party’s prospects of capturing the US House ma... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/19/2017 8:38:50 AM

BIPAC Daily: Yes, Another One   12/18/2017
Yes, Another One December 18, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Freshman Nevada Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas), who previously said he would not resign when sexual impropriety allegations were made against him, became the sixth current House member to either leave Congress or retire unex... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/18/2017 9:58:13 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another One   12/15/2017
Another One December 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Yet another House member announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election due to reverberations from sexual impropriety incidents.  Texas four-term Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi), after filing for re-election o... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/15/2017 9:31:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Alabama Stats; Minnesota's New Senator   12/14/2017
Alabama Stats; Minnesota's New Senator December 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   AL-Senate   Predictably, Democrats and media commentators are promoting the premise that Doug Jones’ victory in Tuesday’s Alabama special Senate election is another sign that... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/14/2017 8:41:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Jones!   12/13/2017
Jones! December 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   With final polling covering all bases from Democrat Doug Jones leading by ten points, to Republican Roy Moore ahead nine, to a straight tie, last night’s Alabama special Senate election carried a great deal of uncertainty as vote... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/13/2017 8:27:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: All Across the Board   12/12/2017
All Across the Board December 12, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Alabama Election Today   Yesterday we reported about the four weekend closing polls in the Alabama Senate election race, three of which projected former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) as the... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/12/2017 7:58:12 AM

BIPAC Daily: A New Round of Specials   12/6/2017
A New Round of Specials December 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Last week, it was erroneously reported in the New York Daily News and several other publications and tweets that embattled Michigan Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) had announced he would not seek re-election next year, bu... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/6/2017 11:02:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Scott Gaining Momentum; IL Filing Closes   12/5/2017
Scott Gaining Momentum; IL Filing Closes December 5, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   FL-Senate   In what should be a premier Senate race next year, the Florida political contest that will likely develop between Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Gov. Rick Scott (R) has not yet drawn... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/5/2017 7:47:57 AM

BIPAC Daily: More on Moore   12/4/2017
More on Moore December 4, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Several new developments have occurred in the Alabama special Senate election, now just over one week from culmination.  Two new polls, from the Washington Post/Schnar School and CBS News/YouGov, have been released, and the... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/4/2017 8:18:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: Rep. Barton to Retire; Major Ohio Moves   12/1/2017
Rep. Barton to Retire; Major Ohio Move December 1, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   TX-6 -   - Veteran Texas Rep. Joe Barton (R-Ennis), a former Energy & Commerce Committee chairman, has apparently taken the advice he was reportedly receiving from many local Republican lea... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/1/2017 8:09:09 AM

BIPAC Daily: Conyers Will Go; More From Illinois   11/30/2017
Conyers Will Go; More From Illinois November 30, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   MI-13 -   - Succumbing to pressure from highly publicized sexual harassment allegations, Michigan Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) announced last night that he will not seek re-election next year.&n... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/30/2017 8:11:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Confirming Data   11/29/2017
Confirming Data November 29, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   As we reported last week, two polls, from WT&S Consulting (11/18-20; 11,641 AL registered voters; Moore 46-40%) and Strategy Research for the Raycom News Network (11/20; 3,000 AL likely special election voters; Moore 47-45... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/29/2017 8:18:44 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Retirement - Maybe   11/28/2017
Another Retirement - Maybe November 28, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Two years ago, US Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago) announced that he would not seek re-election, only to eventually turn around and file for another term.  On Monday, Mr. Gutierrez filed paperwork to secure a ba... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/28/2017 7:42:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Senate Picture - Re-Cap   11/27/2017
The Senate Picture - Re-Cap November 27, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   During the Thanksgiving holiday week, we previewed all 34 current Senate races.  Today, we wrap-up with the often-described 30,000-foot national overview perspective.   The Alabama special Senate... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/27/2017 9:25:16 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Senate Picture - Part III   11/24/2017
The Senate Picture - Part III November 24, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Continuing our holiday recap of the 2018 Senate races, we end our coverage with Ohio through Wyoming.   Ohio:  State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R), who held Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a 51-45% w... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/24/2017 11:28:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Senate Picture - Part II   11/22/2017
The Senate Picture - Part II November 22, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Continuing our holiday recap of the Senate races, today, we cover Michigan through North Dakota.   Michigan: The major event occurring this week was Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who had been s... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/22/2017 8:37:51 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Senate Picture - Part I   11/21/2017
The Senate Picture - Part I November 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Since little in politics happens around a holiday period, it is a good time to quickly review all 34 in-cycle US Senate campaigns.  Today, alphabetically in the first of a three-part series, we look at Alabama... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/21/2017 8:09:17 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Next Special: Nominees Set   11/20/2017
The Next Special: Nominees Set November 20, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   After the raucous Alabama special Senate election concludes on December 12th, voters in western Pennsylvania will go to the polls next March 13th to fill a US House vacancy.  We will remember that Rep. Tim... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/20/2017 8:06:17 AM

BIPAC Daily: Turbulent Senate Politics   11/17/2017
Turbulent Senate Politics November 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Currently, the near-term and long range Senate outlook seems to fluctuate by the hour.  For the past few days we have repeatedly detailed the Republicans’ problem with Alabama Senate nominee Roy Moore and... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/17/2017 7:49:16 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Roy Moore Polling   11/16/2017
The Roy Moore Polling November 16, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Last evening’s political news featured heavy coverage of a new National Republican Senatorial Committee poll that produced bad news for Alabama GOP special Senate nominee Roy Moore, but not enough information was r... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/16/2017 8:19:19 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Open Seat Map   11/15/2017
The Open Seat Map November 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   If the Democrats are to capture the House majority next year, they will have to score well in the burgeoning open seat category, but so far the map does not appear particularly favorable for them.  Though a strong showi... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/15/2017 8:22:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: A New Nominee; Another Retirement   11/14/2017
A New Nominee; Another Retirement November 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   PA-18   Though almost all of the weekend political media coverage focused on the Alabama Senate campaign and the sexual impropriety allegations against former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Ro... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/14/2017 8:13:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Alabama Debacle   11/13/2017
The Alabama Debacle November 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Senate Republicans have a major advantage in the current election cycle, but may be on the precipice of giving it away.   Looking at the 2018 Senate map, Republicans have only to defend eight of the 33 in-cycl... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/13/2017 8:02:05 AM

BIPAC Daily:   11/10/2017
Moore Under Attack; Goodlatte #34 November 10, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   AL-Senate   Controversy is erupting in the Alabama special US Senate election as we begin to enter the last month of campaigning before the December 12th vote.    Yesterday... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/10/2017 9:08:18 AM

BIPAC Daily: Virginia Becoming Clearer   11/9/2017
Virginia Becoming Clearer November 9, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Now that the political dust is settling over the Old Dominion, we are better able to analyze the Democrats’ Virginia victory. -   - While Democrats retained all three of the statewide positions they p... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/9/2017 8:15:59 AM

BIPAC Daily: Dems Score Big; Curtis Wins; VA House: 12 Votes   11/8/2017
Dems Score Big; Curtis Wins; VA House: 12 Votes November 8, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Democrats came roaring back particularly in the Virginia elections last night as Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) easily outpaced former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie to win the o... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/8/2017 8:18:32 AM

BIPAC Daily: Election Day Today   11/7/2017
Election Day Today November 7, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Voters go to the polls in three places today to elect two Governors, state legislators, and a new member of Congress.  Multiple local elections, including mayoral contests in 59 of the nation’s largest cities, wit... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/7/2017 7:39:23 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Virtual Tie   11/6/2017
A Virtual Tie November 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Just a day before the Virginia Governor’s race is decided, significant movement exists in the final pre-election polls.    At the end of last week, we previously reported that Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) ha... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/8/2017 3:51:47 PM

BIPAC Daily: Rep. Lamar Smith to Retire   11/3/2017
Rep. Lamar Smith to Retire November 3, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Veteran Texas US Rep. Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio) rather surprisingly announced yesterday that he will not seek a 17thterm in the House next year.  Mr. Smith was first elected in 1986, and has averaged 81.5% of... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/3/2017 8:08:50 AM

BIPAC Daily: High Stakes Voting   11/2/2017
High Stakes Voting November 2, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Three important campaigns will be decided next Tuesday, and the stakes are actually quite high for both major political parties.  The favored entity losing an upset contest in any of the venues would immediately da... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/2/2017 8:31:26 AM

BIPAC Daily: Hensarling Retirement: Open Seat Effect   11/1/2017
Hensarling Retirement: Open Seat Effect November 1, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Yesterday, House Financial Services Committee chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas) announced that he will not seek a ninth term in Congress next year, the timing coinciding with his internal term limit as... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/1/2017 8:01:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: Two Polls: One Interesting, One Bad   10/31/2017
Two Polls: One Interesting, One Bad October 31, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Two political polls were released into the public domain yesterday.  The first survey is of interest because it already examines a budding open seat Arizona Senate Republican primary, and becomes the fi... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/31/2017 8:30:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: Heller Down Again, But Not Out   10/30/2017
Heller Down Again, But Not Out October 30, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   You may remember that JMC Analytics and Polling released an August survey that found Republican Danny Tarkanian, before he entered the Senate race, to be leading Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, 39-31%.  On Friday,... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/30/2017 8:20:28 AM

BIPAC Daily: AZ: Fast Action   10/27/2017
AZ: Fast Action October 27, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Sen. Jeff Flake’s (R) announcement Wednesday that he will not run for re-election has ignited a flurry of political activity in Arizona about who now might enter the newly open 2018 Senate race.  Decisions are alread... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/27/2017 8:58:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Two Stunning Polls   10/26/2017
Two Stunning Polls October 26, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A pair of eyebrow raising polls were released yesterday, one for 2018 Senate race and the other for the impending Virginia gubernatorial campaign. -   - ND-Senate -   - The 1892 polling firm, which has... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/26/2017 7:42:12 AM

BIPAC Daily: The New Arizona Senate Race   10/25/2017
The New Arizona Senate Race October 25, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake (R) surprised most in the political world by announcing yesterday in a speech from the Senate floor, and thereby to the nation, that he will not seek re-election for a second term.  ... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/25/2017 8:10:30 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Emerging Senate Cycle   10/24/2017
The Emerging Senate Cycle October 24, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Though we still have more than two full months remaining in calendar year 2017, the 2018 US Senate field is beginning to take clear shape.  With 34 statewide contests to be decided, including the Alabama special... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/25/2017 8:18:44 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Money Clues   10/23/2017
The Money Clues October 23, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The 3rd Quarter Federal Election Commission US House disclosure reports are available, and they provide valuable clues as to which campaigns could become first tier efforts next year.  The Daily Kos Elections Page once aga... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/23/2017 8:07:00 AM

BIPAC Daily: Pence In; Tiberi Out   10/20/2017
Pence In; Tiberi Out October 20, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   IN-6 -   - Greg Pence, brother of Vice President Mike Pence, is now a congressional candidate.  Yesterday, Mr. Pence made public his intention to run for the open 6th District, the seat his brother held for... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/20/2017 7:56:28 AM

BIPAC Daily: Fox Poll: Moore Tied - Dubious   10/19/2017
Fox Poll: Moore Tied - Dubious October 19, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A new Fox Poll (10/14-16; 801 AL registered voters) just released earlier this week finds former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) and ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D) tied at 42% in the special Alabam... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/19/2017 8:11:21 AM

BIPAC Daily: Virginia Swaying   10/18/2017
Virginia Swaying October 18, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   It has been surmised for the past week that Republican Ed Gillespie is gaining momentum in his quest to become Governor of Virginia.  The emphasis on attacking Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) with a series of ads casting him a... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/18/2017 7:43:55 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Reversal?   10/17/2017
A Reversal? October 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   TN-Senate -   - Tennessee former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is obviously under intense pressure from Democrats to enter the newly open Senate race.  When Sen. Bob Corker (R) announced his retirement last week, Mr. Brede... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/17/2017 7:32:24 AM

BIPAC Daily: California On, Maine Off   10/16/2017
California On, Maine Off October 16, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   CA-Senate   Last week we reported that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) announced her decision seek a fifth full term next year, and that state Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) was considering la... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/16/2017 8:33:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: Latest Alabama Data   10/16/2017
The Latest Alabama Data October 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Cygnal polling firm just released the latest survey for the special Alabama Senate race (10/2-5; 497 AL likely special election voters), and it yields a spread between the two major political party nominees that is... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/16/2017 8:29:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Could Bannon Cost the GOP?   10/12/2017
Could Bannon Cost the GOP? October 12, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Several articles are surfacing this week speculating that former presidential advisor Steve Bannon wanting to find and support challengers to Republican Senate incumbents could cost the GOP its majority.  It app... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/12/2017 8:07:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Missouri Move   10/11/2017
The Missouri Move October 11, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Yesterday, Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) officially announced his long-awaited challenge to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D).  The move had been expected since even before he formed a Senatorial exploratory committe... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/11/2017 7:45:03 AM

BIPAC Daily: Yes, She Will   10/10/2017
Yes, She Will October 10, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Yesterday, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) announced that she will seek a fifth full term next year despite, at 84 years of age, being the Senate’s oldest member.  Curiously, her recent comments about President Trump and gun... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/10/2017 7:37:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Shocking Retirement   10/9/2017
A Shocking Retirement October 9, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Since Pennsylvania Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton) announced he would run for the US Senate in late August, and additional eight US House seats have opened in the succeeding weeks, but none as surprising as the latest one a... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/9/2017 2:19:22 PM

BIPAC Daily: Murphy Goes; Blackburn & Haslam   10/6/2017
Murphy Goes; Blackburn & Haslam October 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   PA-18   A new special US House election will soon be on tap, this time in southwestern Pennsylvania.  Beleaguered Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pittsburgh) succumbed to the negative publicity leaking o... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/6/2017 8:30:18 AM

BIPAC Daily: Pennsylvania's Importance   10/5/2017
Pennsylvania's Importance October 5, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   In every election, it seems one or two states become that cycle’s political focal point and we can already identify which places might serve in such a role for 2018.  Along with California for House race... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/5/2017 9:37:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: Bannon: How Much a Factor   10/4/2017
Bannon: How Much a Factor October 4, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Several articles have appeared in the past few days contemplating former presidential advisor Steve Bannon’s perceived political strength, most specifically regarding his actions involving recruiting Republican p... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/4/2017 7:54:25 AM

BIPAC Daily: First Alabama Poll   10/3/2017
First Alabama Poll October 3, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Opinion Savvy research firm went into the field to test the Alabama electorate immediately after last week’s special Republican run-off election, and found former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore holding... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/3/2017 8:18:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: Sinema Makes Move   10/2/2017
Sinema Makes Move October 2, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   It has been apparent for some time that three-term Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) is preparing for a statewide race, and on Friday she officially made her intentions known.  Rep. Sinema announced that she will ru... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/2/2017 8:03:32 AM

BIPAC Daily: Tennessee in Overdrive   9/29/2017
Tennessee in Overdrive September 29, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Sen. Bob Corker’s (R) Tuesday retirement announcement has ignited a Tennessee political fire drill.    Several Republican current and former office holders immediately began assessing their own... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/29/2017 8:21:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Primary Fallout   9/28/2017
The Primary Fallout September 28, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Former Alabama State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore’s victory in Tuesday’s special Senate run-off election has created a media narrative suggesting that statewide GOP primary challenges will soon be swe... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/28/2017 8:25:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Moore Wins; Corker to Retire   9/27/2017
Moore Wins; Corker to Retire September 27, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   AL-Senate -   - Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, twice removed from the court for disobeying federal court orders that violated his conservative principles, scored a robust victory l... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/27/2017 8:00:06 AM

BIPAC Daily: Strange vs. Moore - Today   9/26/2017
Strange vs. Moore - Today September 26, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Voters return to Alabama polling places today, as Republican run-off participants will choose a nominee to advance to the December 12th special general election.  To re-cap, former state Supreme Court Chief Jus... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/27/2017 8:03:28 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Candidate Review - Part II   9/25/2017
Senate Candidate Review - Part II September 25, 2017 By:  Jim Ellis   On Friday, we reviewed the first half of the 33 in-cycle Senate races in terms of serious candidate personnel.  Today, the remaining 17 states are covered. -   - As a reminder, no curre... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/25/2017 7:49:31 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Candidate Review - Part I   9/22/2017
Senate Candidate Review - Part I September 22, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   After yesterday’s review of the open House races, today we update the first half of the 33 in-cycle Senate races in terms of serious candidate personnel.  On Monday, we will complete the remaining... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/22/2017 8:12:03 AM

BIPAC Daily: Categorizing the Open Seats   9/21/2017
Categorizing the Open Seats September 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Seeing three Republican House members last week announce they won’t be running for re-election next year – Reps. Charlie Dent (R-PA; retiring), Tom Marino (R-PA; appointed Director of the Office of Dru... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/21/2017 7:18:44 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Virginia Polling Bonanza   9/19/2017
A Virginia Polling Bonanza September 20, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Four different pollsters released new data for the Virginia Governor’s campaign within the past few days, and the spreads range from a tie to a ten-point lead for Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, the Democratic nomine... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/20/2017 7:34:00 AM

BIPAC Daily: Strange Closing   9/19/2017
Strange Closing September 19, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A brand new poll may be providing some last minute life for appointed Sen. Luther Strange as he continues to trail for the upcoming September 26th Republican run-off election.    Yesterday, we covered a Vote... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/19/2017 8:08:13 AM

BIPAC Daily: One Week Remaining   9/18/2017
One Week Remaining September 18, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Entering the last full week of campaigning in the Alabama special Senate Republican run-off election, several happenings occurred in the past few days that are likely putting both candidates on edge.   As one... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/19/2017 8:11:26 AM

BIPAC Daily: VA-10: Dems Helping Comstock?   9/15/2017
VA-10: Dems Helping Comstock? September 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Virginia is the most unique political state in the country when it comes to nominating political candidates.  Party leaders and the incumbents themselves have great authority not only to schedule their... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/19/2017 8:12:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Shock Poll: Down 27   9/14/2017
Shock Poll: Down 27 September 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   GBA Strategies, polling for the Democratic leadership’s Senate Majority PAC (8/30-9/7; 600 AZ likely general election voters; and 500 AZ Republican primary voters), just produced stunningly poor numbers for first-te... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/14/2017 7:38:10 AM

BIPAC Daily: More Troubling Signs   9/13/2017
More Troubling Signs September 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Now just 13 days away from the September 26th special Alabama Republican Senate run-off election two new polls have entered the public domain, likewise bringing bad news for appointed Sen. Luther Strange.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/13/2017 8:00:04 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Retirement   9/12/2017
Another Retirement September 12, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   For the third time in a week, a Republican House member announced that he will not seek re-election next year.  This time, it’s a junior member who is retiring.  Second-term Michigan Rep. David Trott (R-Bir... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/12/2017 7:41:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Rep. Dent's Departure   9/11/2017
Rep. Dent's Departure September 11, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A day after Pennsylvania conservative state Rep. Justin Simmons (R-Coopersburg) officially declared his Republican primary challenge to Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Allentown), the Congressman announced that he would not se... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/13/2017 9:57:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: Strange Still Down, Lashes Back   9/8/2017
Strange Still Down, Lashes Back September 8, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A new Alabama Senate Republican run-off poll was released yesterday, and it provides a similar result but with potentially the same skew as we saw from earlier surveys.   According to the Southeast... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/8/2017 8:07:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Retirement Brings a Toss-Up   9/7/2017
Retirement Brings a Toss-Up September 7, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Yesterday, Washington Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) announced that he will not seek an eighth term next year.  The Congressman was first elected in 2004, succeeding veteran Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R), which proved... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/7/2017 7:49:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Appointment; WV Poll   9/6/2017
Another Appointment; WV Poll September 6, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   PA-10   Yesterday, White House personnel announced that President Trump will nominate Pennsylvania Rep. Tom Marino (R-Williamsport) as the new Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy.&n... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/6/2017 8:00:49 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Open; New Special   9/5/2017
Another Open; New Special September 5, 2015 By: Jim Ellis   US House action occurred during the three-day holiday weekend both on the Democratic and Republican sides of the aisle.  A new open Democratic House seat was announced because the incumbent has decided to run fo... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/5/2017 8:04:10 AM

BIPAC Daily: Florida: Close Again   9/1/2017
Florida: Close Again August 1, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   FL-Senate   Earlier in the week, Florida Atlantic University released new survey research data (8/25-26; 800 FL registered voters via online questioning and telephone automated response) that tested the Sunshine... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/1/2017 7:53:58 AM

BIPAC Daily: Sanford's Next Challenge   8/31/2017
Sanford's Next Challenge August 31, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   We all remember former Governor Mark Sanford’s ignominious exit from the South Carolina political scene in 2010, a year after his international extra-marital affair became worldwide news.  His political e... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/31/2017 8:00:32 AM

BIPAC Daily: Confirming Polls   8/30/2017
Confirming Polls August 30, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Two new surveys were released yesterday that verify trends for two in-cycle Republican US Senators, one in a positive manner, the other, negative.   Harper Polling released new data (8/24-26; 800 AL likely Senate r... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/30/2017 7:53:16 AM

BIPAC Daily: Newer Alabama Poll   8/29/2017
Newer Alabama Poll August 24, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   We have a new Alabama US Senate Republican run-off poll that was released into the public domain late yesterday afternoon. -   - Earlier in the week we reported upon a JMC Analytics and Polling survey that projecte... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/29/2017 4:01:31 PM

BIPAC Daily: NV: Who Can Tell?   8/29/2017
NV: Who Can Tell? August 29, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Two new Nevada Republican polls were released yesterday that differ so greatly it is difficult to confirm which, if either, is accurate.   JMC Analytics and Polling publicized their new Silver State data (8/24-25;... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/29/2017 8:16:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: McConnell Group Counters   8/28/2017
McConnell Group Counters August 28, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Racked by two recent polls that gave former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore leads of 18 points or better over appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the September 26th special Republican run-off election, the Sena... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/28/2017 8:00:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: Flake Way Down; Data Questionable   8/25/2017
Flake Way Down; Data Questionable August 25, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A new poll was released yesterday showing Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake (R) in very poor re-election position, but the polling methodology yields serious flaws.  An earlier poll with greater reliability also sho... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/29/2017 4:00:12 PM

BIPAC Daily: Action Breaking in Texas   8/23/2017
Action Breaking in Texas August 23, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Early last week, the three-judge federal panel considering the Texas redistricting lawsuit issued a ruling, one that contained a rather major surprise.    It was expected that Reps. Blake Farenthold (R... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/23/2017 7:59:55 AM

BIPAC Daily: The First Run-off Poll   8/22/2017
The First Run-off Poll August 22, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   JMC Analytics and Polling, one of the pollsters for the special Alabama Senate Republican primary, is first to release run-off numbers.  In their post-primary survey (8/17-19; 515 completed interviews of Republican l... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/22/2017 7:32:00 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Not So Open Seat   8/21/2017
A Not So Open Seat August 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Currently, we see a low number of open US House seats during this 2018 election cycle, and the number is about to get even smaller.  As early as today, Colorado Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) is expected to announce that... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/21/2017 8:01:02 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Texas Re-Draw   8/18/2017
The Texas Re-Draw August 18, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The special three-judge panel considering Texas redistricting, which long ago declared the state’s 35th Congressional District as a racial gerrymander, issued a ruling earlier this week that contains re-drawing deadlines... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/18/2017 8:14:06 AM

BIPAC Daily: Alabama's Game Within the Game   8/17/2017
Alabama's Game Within the Game August 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Tuesday’s special Alabama Senate Republican primary sent former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore and appointed Sen. Luther Strange to the September 26th run-off election, but what can we expec... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/17/2017 7:37:15 AM

BIPAC Daily:   8/16/2017
AL Run-Off; Curtis Wins August 16, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   AL-Senate -   - The pre-election polling proved accurate last night, as Alabama former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore placed first in the special Senate Republican primary, as predicted, and will... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/16/2017 7:57:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Sinema's Changing Stance   8/15/2017
Sinema's Changing Stance August 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Reports attributed to the Phoenix NBC television news affiliate indicate that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) will imminently announce a challenge to GOP Sen. Jeff Flake.  For her part, Ms. Sinema concedes that... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/15/2017 8:03:58 AM

BIPAC Daily: Special Elections Tomorrow   8/14/2017
Special Elections Tomorrow August 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   AL-Senate -   - Voters go to the polls tomorrow in the long-awaited Alabama special US Senate primary, the first tangible step in permanently replacing Attorney General Jeff Sessions.  As we know, Mr.... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/14/2017 7:40:50 AM

BIPAC Daily: Dina Titus' Decision   8/11/2017
Dina Titus' Decision August 11, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   It’s interesting how individual political moves can often yield opportunities or create obstacles for others in a semi-related fashion.  Such is the case for Las Vegas US Rep. Dina Titus (D), as she is all of... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/11/2017 7:48:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: Rokita In; Tsongas to Retire   8/10/2017
Rokita In; Tsongas to Retire August 10, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   IN-Senate -   - Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) is generally considered to be the first or second national Republican conversion target, and the GOP candidates are beginning to come forward. -   - ... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/10/2017 7:40:32 AM

BIPAC Daily: Tarkanian to Challenge Heller   8/9/2017
Tarkanian to Challenge Heller August 9th, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Perennial Nevada candidate Danny Tarkanian yesterday announced a US Senate Republican primary challenge to incumbent Dean Heller, creating more chaos in what is the Democrats’ best national conversion opport... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/9/2017 7:46:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: CO: GOP Could Cancel Primary   8/8/2017
CO: GOP Could Cancel Primary August, 8, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Local Centennial State news reports indicate that a Colorado Republican Central Committee vote will transpire in late September about whether to cancel the 2018 party primary.  -   - The vote would h... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/8/2017 7:41:30 AM

BIPAC Daily: New AL Data; UT-3 Formulating   8/7/2017
New AL Data; UT-3 Formulating August 7, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   AL-Senate -   - As we enter the final full week of campaigning before the August 15th vote, a new political poll forecasts a different leader in the Republican special US Senate election primary.  Th... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/7/2017 7:40:22 AM

BIPAC Daily: The California Challenge   7/26/2017
The California Challenge July 26, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Dems must heavily target California because, with few open seats and their party forced to protect about half the small number of toss-up races, they must find a way to expand the target base if they are to seriously... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/26/2017 8:01:18 AM

BIPAC Daily: Strange vs. Brooks   7/25/2017
Strange vs. Brooks July 25, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Though nine Republicans are on the ballot for the August 15th special Senate GOP primary, the ad war would suggest it’s a contest only between appointed Sen. Luther Strange and US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville).  ... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/25/2017 7:56:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: Kirkpatrick In; Gabbard Out   7/24/2017
Kirkpatrick In; Gabbard Out July 24, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   AZ-2   Arizona former US Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff) has completed her political transition to Tucson.  Over the weekend, the former Congresswoman and US Senate candidate announced that she wil... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/24/2017 8:35:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Dueling Congressmen   7/21/2017
Dueling Congressmen July 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Next year’s Indiana Senate race is expected to be one of the nation’s top wire-to-wire campaigns.  Even the Republican primary, which will only produce a challenger nominee, is beginning in toss-up fashion. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/21/2017 8:21:00 AM

BIPAC Daily: Fox Poll: Mixed Bag   7/20/2017
Fox Poll: Mixed Bag July 20, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Fox News yesterday released the results of their regular benchmark poll (Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research; 7/16-18; 1,020 US registered voters) and find President Trump to be showing some weakness, but... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/20/2017 8:11:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: More Drama in the Desert   7/18/2017
More Drama in the Desert July 18, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The family feud between President Trump and Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake (R) is back in high gear.  Politico is reporting that Mr. Trump or key members of his internal staff have already met with or talked to three Grand... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/18/2017 7:40:19 AM

BIPAC Daily: The First Midterm: A Deeper Story   7/17/2017
The First Midterm: A Deeper Story July 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Much has been made about a new President’s party failing in the midterm directly after his initial national election, but the statistics aren’t quite what they seem.  In the House, the average lo... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/18/2017 7:43:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: House Opens: No Dem Path   7/14/2017
House Opens: No Dem Path July 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   There is a great deal of political chatter discussing the Democrats’ chances to assume the House majority in the 2018 elections, but one key facet that must work for them is not yet in place. -   - For an... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/14/2017 7:33:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: Alabama Battle Lines Drawn   7/13/2017
Alabama Battle Lines Drawn July 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Now, just about a month away from the Alabama US Senate special primary election, we are seeing the first political patterns that begin to define the Republican primary race. -   - To review, the seat became... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/13/2017 8:08:55 AM

BIPAC Daily: One In, One Out   7/12/2017
One In, One Out July 12, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Two major announcements occurred during the last two days resulting in one individual becoming an official statewide candidate and another withdrawing from a campaign that had already begun. -   - WV-Senate -  ... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/12/2017 7:50:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: Big Governor News   7/11/2017
Big Governor News July 11, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A major announcement was made in a western state Governor’s race yesterday, with an additional one from an adjacent domain coming later today.  Both affect corresponding US House seats. -   - NM-Gov; NM-2 -... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/11/2017 7:34:31 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Wild West   7/10/2017
The Wild West July 10, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Surprising political rumblings are being felt in two key western swing states, one highlighting what will be a major Republican primary battle, with a toss-up open seat and a potentially competitive challenger campaign in the other.... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/10/2017 7:46:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: More on Missouri   7/7/2017
More on Missouri July 7, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Missouri Senate race transformed itself earlier this week when Rep. Ann Wagner (R-St. Louis County) announced that she would not challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), and there is an update as to what may happen next.  - ... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/7/2017 7:38:19 AM

BIPAC Daily: Reviewing the Senate   7/6/2017
Reviewing the Senate July 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Considering Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-MO) surprise decision not to challenge Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and last week’s Arizona maneuverings among Democrats vis-à-vis a challenge to Sen. Jeff Flake (R), i... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/6/2017 8:19:29 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Surprising Announcement   7/5/2017
A Surprising Announcement July 5, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A July announcement regarding the coming Missouri US Senate race had been expected for weeks, but the actual content featured a much different declaration than anticipated.   Just before the July 4th holiday,... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/5/2017 8:14:36 AM

BIPAC Daily: Flake Opposition Mounting   7/3/2017
Flake Opposition Mounting July 3, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   With the Republican healthcare overhaul bill remaining in a controversial state, and Democrats already trying to use it as a rallying point for potential 2018 candidates, the Arizona Senate field is... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/3/2017 10:29:51 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Challenges Begin   6/30/2017
The Challenges Begin June 30, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Action yesterday emanating from Massachusetts could be a harbinger of what we can expect in the coming months.  The Boston Globe is reporting that Cambridge City Councilman Nadeem Mazen is not seeking re-election to inst... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/5/2017 7:51:04 AM

BIPAC Daily: Fake Analysis?   6/29/2017
Fake Analysis? June 29, 2017 By:  Jim Ellis   As we all know, one of President Trump’s favorite gambits is to call out reporters for what he terms their “fake news” stories, and we see an example this week of where he may be right.  The New York Ti... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/29/2017 8:02:36 AM

BIPAC Daily: NV-Senate: The Race is On   6/28/2017
NV-Senate: The Race is On June 28, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Last week, freshman Nevada Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) informally declared her intention to run for the Senate – promising an actual announcement for sometime this week or next – and now we already see the... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/28/2017 7:41:26 AM

BIPAC Daily: More on the House   6/27/2017
More on the House June 27, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Yesterday, we examined the House’s post-special election status and speculated upon the Democrats’ chances of wresting majority control away from Republicans during the coming regular campaigns.  One of the obst... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/27/2017 7:54:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: Looking at the House   6/26/2017
Looking at the House June 26, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   For a brief instant, until Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) resigns later this week, the House has a full compliment of 435 members, which means now is a good time to survey 2018 election cycle prospects. -   - There h... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/26/2017 8:08:10 AM

BIPAC Daily: New Virginia Polling   6/23/2017
New Virginia Polling June 23, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Despite the vast majority of survey research firms again failing to predict the correct outcome for a recent political campaign, this time the GA-6 special election, we do have new data to analyze for the Virginia Governor&rs... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/23/2017 7:37:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Aftermath   6/22/2017
The Aftermath June 22, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Much was written and discussed yesterday about Tuesday’s surprising special election results in GA-6 and SC-5.  Democrats, in particular, had raised victory expectations to unrealistically high levels for the Georgia race... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/22/2017 10:25:31 AM

BIPAC Daily: Handel and Norman   6/21/2017
Handel and Norman June 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   It’s difficult to characterize a Republican candidate winning a Republican congressional district as an “upset”, but Karen Handel’s victory in the north Atlanta suburbs last night, at least in terms of th... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/21/2017 7:59:19 AM

BIPAC Daily: Election Day Today   6/20/2017
Election Day Today June 20, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Voters in two states complete their special election processes today, with Republicans protecting both vacant US House seats and Democrats trying to make one of them a major national gain.  The GA-6 and SC-5 seats of Trump... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/20/2017 7:26:36 AM

BIPAC Daily: Utah Convention Winner   6/19/2017
Utah Convention Winner June 19, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Former state Representative Chris Herrod, who challenged Sen. Orrin Hatch for re-nomination in 2012, won Saturday’s special Republican nominating convention to replace outgoing Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy).&nb... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/19/2017 7:56:14 AM

BIPAC Daily: Gillespie Digging Out   6/16/2017
Gillespie Digging Out June 16, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   As has been discussed since the Virginia gubernatorial primary votes were counted on Tuesday, the election’s end result was much different for both parties than expected even though the favored candidates won.  Fo... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/16/2017 7:43:16 AM

BIPAC Daily: Dead Even   6/15/2017
Dead Even June 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The long Georgia special election cycle is mercifully almost over, as this most expensive-ever congressional race draws to a close next Tuesday.  Looking at the aggregate spending, this one House campaign will easily exceed $40 mil... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/15/2017 7:43:51 AM

BIPAC Daily: Opposite Than Predicted   6/14/2017
Opposite Than Predicted June 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Virginia Governor primaries actually produced the expected winners for both sides last night, but the margins and the candidates’ points of geographical strength turned the pre-election predictions upside down. -... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/14/2017 7:32:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: Virginia Primary Today   6/13/2017
Virginia Primary Today June 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Virginia Governor’s campaign is becoming a national race in relation to prognosticating political trends, and we will be able to glean some partial answers this evening.    Initially, the eventua... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/13/2017 8:38:55 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another House Opening; Puerto Rico Vote   6/12/2017
Another House Opening; Puerto Rico Vote June 12, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Colorado Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) will reportedly announce his campaign for Governor today, making the open seat Democratic primary even more crowded.  Mr. Polis’ move sets up a major primary... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/12/2017 7:34:03 AM

BIPAC Daily: Unelecteds and Opens   6/9/2017
-   Unelecteds and Opens June 9, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   It was always known that a large number of 2017-18 cycle Governors’ races would be open contests, but finding several unelected incumbents running to hold their new positions is an unforeseen nuance. &n... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/9/2017 8:24:59 AM

BIPAC Daily: Perriello Peaking   6/8/2017
Perriello Peaking June 8, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   According to his internal polling, former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) has caught Virginia Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam as the two head into next Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary election.   Yesterday, th... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/8/2017 8:15:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: NJ Nominations; CA-34 Results   6/7/2017
NJ Nominations; CA-34 Results June 7, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   NJ-Governor   Voters cast their ballots in the 2017-18 election cycle’s first regular primary contest last night and the local political prognosticators fared well.   As predicted, form... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/7/2017 8:20:18 AM

BIPAC Daily: GA-6: Even More Controversy   6/6/2017
GA-6: Even More Controversy June 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The backfired Kathy Griffin ploy about beheading President Trump has made its way into the hotly contested GA-6 special election. -   - The Republican Congressional Leadership Fund, loosely associated with Ho... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/6/2017 8:33:18 AM

BIPAC Daily: NJ Primary Today   6/6/2017
NJ Primary Today June 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The 2017-18 election cycle’s first regular primary occurs today as New Jersey voters head to the polls to choose major party nominees in the Governor’s race. This campaign will lead to replacing term-limited state chie... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/6/2017 8:31:24 AM

BIPAC Daily: Pearce in Range   6/5/2017
Pearce in Range June 5, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A statewide New Mexico poll released late last week suggests that US Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) is well within the competitive range of fellow US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque), should the two battle each other in nex... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/5/2017 9:23:57 AM

BIPAC Daily: Census Bureau: American Voting   6/1/2017
Census Bureau: American Voting June 1, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   There are always seemingly conflicting reports about the actual number of people who register to vote and the corresponding number who are even eligible to participate, but we are now closer to having more definitive... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/1/2017 7:36:29 AM

BIPAC Daily: UT-3: More Clarity?   5/31/2017
UT-3: More Clarity? May 31, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The replacement process for soon-to-be ex-Congressman Jason Chaffetz’s (R-Alpine/ Sandy) southeastern Utah congressional seat has just become clearer in some ways, but not in others.   Candidate filing closed... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/31/2017 7:24:26 AM

BIPAC Daily: Setting the Record Straight   5/30/2017
Setting the Record Straight May 30, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   More incorrect post-election analysis is coming to the forefront after last week’s Montana special congressional election. -   - After a similar Kansas special electoral contest in April yielded stories... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/30/2017 7:53:44 AM

BIPAC Daily: Gianforte KO's Quist   5/26/2017
Gianforte KO's Quist May 26, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Bozeman, Montana businessman and former gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte (R) shrugged off a 24-hour media pounding last evening.  The congressional candidate, besieged with attacks over his election eve physical a... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/26/2017 8:18:50 AM

BIPAC Daily: Gianforte Slams Reporter - Literally!   5/25/2017
Gianforte Slams Reporter - Literally! May 25, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   On the eve of today’s special election, at-large Republican special election congressional nominee Greg Gianforte was involved in a physical altercation with a national news reporter, Ben Jacobs from the... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/30/2017 4:17:40 PM

BIPAC Daily: GA-6 Trending   5/24/2017
GA-6 Trending May 24, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   A new Survey USA poll (5/16-20; 700 GA-6 adults; winnowed to 549 early and likely special election voters) finds Democrat Jon Ossoff leading former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) by the largest margin that any of the five post-p... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/24/2017 8:19:18 AM

BIPAC Daily: MT Special: The Healthcare Referendum   5/23/2017
MT Special: The Healthcare Referendum May 23, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   We’re going to see either a quick validation or clear rejection of the Democrats’ healthcare strategy later this week. -   - Montanans head to the polls on Thursday, an unusual day for a... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/23/2017 8:12:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Utah’s Lightning Speed; Norman Wins   5/22/2017
Utah’s Lightning Speed; Norman Wins May 22, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   UT-3   Gov. Gary Herbert (R) just scheduled the special election to replace resigning Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy), and the candidate filing deadline will occur even before the Congres... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/22/2017 7:46:42 AM

BIPAC Daily: Conflicting VA Polls   5/19/2017
Conflicting VA Polls May 19, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Early in this election cycle we’ve already seen several special and odd-numbered year campaigns produce conflicting polling data, and yesterday a new example came forth.  Two new polls from the Virginia Governor&rsq... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/19/2017 7:32:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: An Alabama Surprise   5/18/2017
An Alabama Surprise May 18, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Filing closed yesterday for the Alabama special Senate election, and events didn’t unfold as expected.  Instead of having more candidates opposing appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the special Republican primary we ac... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/18/2017 7:38:29 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Close One; Ohio Decision   5/17/2017
Another Close One; Ohio Decision May 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   SC-5 -   - Last night’s special Republican run-off election ended in almost as close a fashion as did the primary, two weeks ago.  Former state Representative and 2006 congressional nominee Ra... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/17/2017 7:40:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: SC Run-off Today; Brooks In   5/16/2017
SC Run-off Today; Brooks In May 16, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   SC-5 - North-central Palmetto State Republican voters visit the polls today to choose a special election congressional nominee.  For all intents and purposes, the evening’s result will likely determin... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/16/2017 7:34:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Arizona Politics in Flux   5/15/2017
Arizona Politics in Flux May 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Grand Canyon State is looking to be a focal point for the 2018 election cycle.  Sen. Jeff Flake (R) stands for re-election amid poor approval numbers within his own Republican Party vote base, while interesting mo... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/15/2017 7:32:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: SC Run-off Numbers   5/12/2017
SC Run-off Numbers May 12, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Northern South Carolina Republican voters will go to the polls Tuesday to choose a special election nominee in the vacant 5th Congressional District run-off election.  The June 20th special general winner will replace forme... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/17/2017 7:50:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: Key Announcements   5/11/2017
Key Announcements May 11, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   It’s been a busy political week even beyond the happenings at the presidential level, and the recent political news will affect the federal political apparatus long after the 2018 election cycle concludes.  -  ... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/11/2017 8:22:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: Opposing Manchin   5/10/2017
Opposing Manchin May 10, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Though West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D) purports to be in strong political position for his impending 2018 re-election campaign, he is beginning to draw a cluster of Republican opponents.  At the beginning of the week, two-... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/10/2017 7:50:44 AM

BIPAC Daily: Dueling Polls   5/9/2017
Dueling Polls May 9, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   GA-6   Two new Georgia special election polls are telling similar stories, but in very different ways.  Both show a virtual tie between Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel and Democratic investigative f... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/9/2017 7:58:24 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Healthcare Targets   5/8/2017
The Healthcare Targets May 8, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Much is being made about the vulnerability of certain Republican Representatives after the healthcare legislation passed the House last Thursday.  From Democratic members heckling various Republicans on the floor in sere... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/8/2017 7:32:09 AM

BIPAC Daily: Flake Dodges Political Bullet   5/5/2017
Flake Dodges Political Bullet May 5, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Arizona US Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) yesterday announced in a Phoenix radio interview her intention to seek re-election next year, meaning she will not become a US Senate candidate.    Most obse... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/5/2017 8:09:41 AM

BIPAC Daily: A New Senate Contender?   5/4/2017
A New Senate Contender? May 4, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   PA-Senate   There is renewed interest from Republicans in challenging Sen. Bob Casey Jr., but the Pennsylvania Senate campaign is still slow to materialize.  Fresh from President Trump’s and Sen. Pat... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/4/2017 7:50:17 AM

BIPAC Daily: SC Run-off and Outright Win   5/3/2017
SC Run-off and Outright Win May 3, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Voters went to the polls in South Carolina yesterday to begin the nomination process in the special election to replace Office of Management & Budget director Mick Mulvaney.  The results were as predicted. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/3/2017 8:28:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: South Carolina Special Today   5/2/2017
South Carolina Special Today May 2, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Voters in north-central South Carolina’s 5th District are casting ballots today in partisan primaries as the people begin to choose a replacement for ex-Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster/Rock Hill), now Director of... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/2/2017 7:45:25 AM

BIPAC Daily: Rep. Ros-Lehtinen to Retire   5/1/2017
Rep. Ros-Lehtinen to Retire May 1, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Florida Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami), the first Cuban-American ever elected to the US House and dean of the Sunshine State congressional delegation, will officially announce that she will not seek re-election at a... (read more)
Last Updated: 5/1/2017 7:44:10 AM

BIPAC Daily: Missouri Taking Shape   4/28/2017
Missouri Taking Shape April 28, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) stands for a third term, and could arguably be the Republicans’ top national conversion target.  The Senator obviously had a successful first re-election run in 2012 despite Mitt Romney... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/28/2017 7:53:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Says No   4/27/2017
Another Says No April 27, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Democrats face a major problem in the 2018 Senate races that they have no ability to solve.  Forced to defend 25 of the 33 in-cycle seats, not counting the new 2017 Alabama special election, there simply aren’t enough... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/27/2017 8:29:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: Finally, a Montana Poll   4/26/2017
Finally, a Montana Poll April 26. 2017 By: Jim Ellis   While the Montana at-large special election has been heating up with both major party candidates approaching the $2 million mark in campaign receipts and each heavily spending on media, we had surprisingly not seen any po... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/26/2017 7:56:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: Dems: Targeting Trouble   4/25/2017
Dems: Targeting Trouble April 25, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Democrats appear encouraged by their early House special election performance, which has spurred some talk about the party’s possibilities of re-claiming the House majority next year.   While the open s... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/25/2017 8:05:09 AM

BIPAC Daily: Updating the Four Specials   4/24/2017
Updating the Four Specials April 24, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Coming through the highly publicized GA-6 special election, the political overtime campaign season is hitting its stride as we approach May voting.  In Georgia, South Carolina, Montana, and California, political a... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/24/2017 8:35:40 AM

BIPAC Daily: More Chaffetz Intrigue   4/21/2017
-   More Chaffetz Intrigue April 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   House Oversight & Government Reform Committee chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) has made a great deal of news this week.  Two days ago he surprisingly announced that he would not seek re-election... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/21/2017 8:20:51 AM

BIPAC Daily: Chaffetz to Retire; Cruz Down   4/20/2017
Chaffetz to Retire; Cruz Down April 20, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   UT-3   Five-term Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy) announced yesterday that he will surprisingly retire from the House at the end of the current term.  Mr. Chaffetz, chairman of the House Oversi... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/20/2017 7:46:17 AM

BIPAC Daily: GA-6: Ossoff vs. Handel   4/19/2017
GA-6: Ossoff vs. Handel April 19, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Democrat Jon Ossoff came within a relative whisker of capturing the 6th District special election contest last night against 17 other candidates.  In an election night that featured a laboriously slow count from Fult... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/19/2017 8:41:11 AM

BIPAC Daily: House Financials as Predictors   4/18/2017
House Financials as Predictors February 18, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   As we all know, actions speak louder than words.  The US House first quarter campaign finance reports (through 3/31/17) were publicized yesterday and, tracking those members who have publicly indicated at l... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/19/2017 9:17:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: GA-6 Tomorrow; Last Poll   4/17/2017
GA-6 Tomorrow; Last Poll April 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Voters in the northern Atlanta suburbs go to the polls tomorrow, and if a new Opinion Savvy survey is correct, Democrat Jon Ossoff will easily claim the first run-off position but will fall well short of claiming an outr... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/17/2017 8:10:26 AM

BIPAC Daily: New GA-6 Data   4/14/2017
New GA-6 Data April 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   With the KS-4 special election just concluding this week, we now turn our attention to the imminent Georgia congressional primary.  Voters in the northern Atlanta suburbs head to the polls for next week’s much-anticipate... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/19/2017 9:16:56 AM

BIPAC Daily: More Alabama Drama   4/13/2017
More Alabama Drama April 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   AL-Senate   In office now two days, new Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is reportedly contemplating a major electoral decision that will add to Alabama’s considerable political intrigue.  According to a spokesperson... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/13/2017 8:55:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: KS-4: Estes Holds   4/12/2017
KS-4: Estes Holds April 12, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   While the victory margin was a bit tighter than the historical average for the district, Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes scored a special election win last night to keep the south-central Kansas congressional district in t... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/12/2017 8:12:43 AM

BIPAC Daily: Kansas Expectations; Changing Alabama   4/11/2017
Kansas Expectations; Changing Alabama April 11, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   KS-4   Today is Election Day in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, the Wichita-anchored seat left vacant when then-Rep. Mike Pompeo (R) was appointed CIA Director.  Republican state... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/13/2017 9:59:14 AM

BIPAC Daily: KS-4: Special Election Tomorrow   4/10/2017
KS-4: Special Election Tomorrow April 10, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   National Republicans are investing in media and digital ads at the very end of the Kansas special congressional election cycle in order to infuse energy into what has been a lackluster campaign effort from GOP nom... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/10/2017 8:20:12 AM

BIPAC Daily: Minnesota Already in High Gear   4/7/2017
Minnesota Already in High Gear April 7, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   We’re 19 months from the next election, yet already major Minnesota political moves are being made.  Though state law does not limit its Governors to eight years in office, incumbent Mark Dayton (D) has a... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/7/2017 8:14:07 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Gloves Come Off   4/6/2017
The Gloves Come Off April 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   GA-6   National fundraising has exploded in the GA-6 special election, especially for the Democrats.  Candidate Jon Ossoff (D), who has won unanimous support from national liberal groups, reports now raising... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/6/2017 8:39:42 AM

BIPAC Daily: CA-34 Results; GA-6 Polling Takes Shape   4/5/2017
CA-34 Results; GA-6 Polling Takes Shape April 5, 2017 By: Jim Ellis     CA-34   Los Angeles County voters in the first of the five national special congressional elections went to the polls yesterday, and two of the 23 candidates – the pair who spe... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/5/2017 8:46:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: CA-34 Votes Today   4/4/2017
CA-34 Votes Today April 4, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The first of five federal special elections gets underway today in Los Angeles, as voters in California’s 34th Congressional District begin the process of electing a replacement for ex-Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles),... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/4/2017 8:27:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: Dems Majority Chances   4/3/2017
Dems Majority Chances April 3, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   U.S. House   With so much talk reverberating about the Democrats’ chances of converting the vacant GA-6 seat (former Rep. Tom Price-R) in the coming April/June special election, conjecture about the party&... (read more)
Last Updated: 4/3/2017 9:19:10 AM

BIPAC Daily: Not So Quiet Now   3/31/2017
Not So Quiet Now March 31, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   MT-AL   News coming from Montana yesterday has put this seemingly quiet special election congressional campaign squarely on the political map.   It has largely been believed that the Democrats are effe... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/31/2017 8:30:23 AM

BIPAC Daily: O'Rourke to Run   3/30/2017
O'Rourke to Run March 30, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Reports coming from Texas, as reported in yesterday’s Houston Chronicle, indicate that three-term Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) will formally announce a challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) by the end of the week. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/30/2017 8:20:07 AM

BIPAC Daily: VA Race Becoming More Interesting   3/29/2017
VA Race Becoming More Interesting March 29, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A new poll continues to show that former Virginia US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) is pulling even with Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam in the Democratic gubernatorial primary scheduled for mid-June.  Until... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/29/2017 8:32:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: House Opens - A Growing List   3/28/2017
House Opens - A Growing List March 28, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Coming to the end of just the first quarter of the off-election year, already 31 open US House seats could potentially be on the docket for the impending election cycle.  Of those, twelve are either in special e... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/28/2017 11:36:14 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Questionable Poll   3/27/2017
Another Questionable Poll March 27, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Georgia special congressional election has already been polled rather extensively, but each survey has possessed methodological issues.  The latest Opinion Savvy (OS) survey (3/23-24; 462 pre-screened likely sp... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/27/2017 8:33:10 AM

BIPAC Daily: New Apportionment Patterns   3/24/2017
New Apportionment Patterns March 24, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The Census Bureau released new population estimate data yesterday, and their information about the largest growth areas and places losing the most residents helps us project how the states will change in congressional... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/24/2017 8:25:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: More Sunshine Polling   3/23/2017
More Sunshine Polling March 23, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Sunshine State of Florida may set an aggregate polling record if the current surveying pace continues.  Already we have seen four different pollsters test what may evolve into a US Senate political battle between i... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/23/2017 8:24:06 AM

BIPAC Daily: Renacci to Run; Angle, Too   3/22/2017
Renacci to Run; Angle, Too March 22, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   OH-Governor -   - The open Republican gubernatorial primary to succeed term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) is producing an all-star political lineup.  This week, another prominent GOP politico entered the... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/22/2017 8:46:47 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate '18 Updates - Part IV   3/21/2017
Senate '18 Updates - Part IV March 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   In our fourth and final installment in this update report series, we examine the latest happenings for the remaining seven 2018 US Senate campaigns. -   - Utah:  Now that Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) is s... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/21/2017 9:00:40 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate '18 Updates - Part III   3/20/2017
Senate '18 Updates - Part III March 20, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Today, we continue to examine the latest happenings for the coming 2018 Senate campaigns. -   - New Mexico:  The open Governor’s race is attracting most of the early political attention in... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/20/2017 10:05:40 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate '18 Updates - Part II   3/17/2017
Senate '18 Updates - Part II March 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Today, we continue to examine the latest happenings for the coming 2018 Senate campaigns. -   - Massachusetts:  Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) is positioned to win a second term next year, and the camp... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/17/2017 8:20:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate '18 Updates - Part I   3/16/2017
Senate '18 Updates - Part I March 16, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   As we approach the end of first quarter 2017, we see political maneuvering beginning to occur in many in-cycle US Senate states.  Despite what columnists and news reporters are already saying about the Republ... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/22/2017 9:32:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Texas Redistricting - The Redux   3/15/2017
Texas Redistricting - The Redux March 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   After the 2003 Texas redistricting saga became synonymous with internal partisan political strife, a three-judge federal panel appears to have ordered the state to again become engulfed in an... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/15/2017 8:23:25 AM

BIPAC Daily: SC-5: Filing Closes   3/14/2017
SC-5: Filing Closes March 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The special election that has so far attracted the least attention in this active early political season is Office of Management & Budget Director Mick Mulvaney’s north-central South Carolina congressional district.... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/14/2017 10:45:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: He May Be Back   3/13/2017
He May Be Back March 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Veteran actor Arnold Schwarzenegger made famous the line “I’ll be back” in the Terminator movies.  Now, former California Governor Schwarzenegger (R) is intimating that he may return to Golden State politics... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/13/2017 10:43:27 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate: UT & MS   3/10/2017
Senate: UT & MS March 10, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Utah   Originally elected in 1976, no Republican Senator has served longer than Utah’s Orrin Hatch, and he is the eighth longest-serving member in American history.  Yesterday, he informed the media th... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/14/2017 10:56:20 AM

BIPAC Daily: Nelson vs. Scott   3/9/2017
Nelson vs. Scott March 9, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The 2018 Florida Senate race is already creating news.  Sen. Bill Nelson (D) has repeatedly said he will seek re-election to a fourth term even though he had been rumored as a retirement candidate.  -   - The... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/9/2017 8:53:55 AM

BIPAC Daily: New Frontline Program Incumbents   3/8/2017
New Frontline Program Incumbents March 8, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   In February, the National Republican Congressional Committee announced the first round of its Patriot Program, the system where GOP House members help raise funds to support those in the most politically marginal... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/8/2017 8:11:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: No Surprise; New GA-6 Poll   3/7/2017
No Surprise; New GA-6 Poll March 7, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   MT-AL -   - Montana Republicans convened last night in the capital city of Helena to choose their nominee for the special at-large congressional election to replace Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke.  Unlike... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/7/2017 8:17:26 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Surprising Convention   3/6/2017
Another Surprising Convention March 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   It is commonly said that political conventions often assume a life of their own, and yesterday’s Democratic gathering in Montana to choose an at-large special congressional election nominee proved no exception... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/6/2017 8:48:37 AM

BIPAC Daily: Trump's Approval; More Montana   3/3/2017
Trump's Approval; More Montana March 3, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   In the early part of Donald Trump’s presidency, a wide chasm has opened surrounding his job approval polling ratings.  ... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/3/2017 8:02:39 AM

BIPAC Daily: The New Special   3/2/2017
The New Special March 2, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Senate confirmed Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT-AL) as President Trump’s Interior Secretary yesterday, and the Montana political apparatus wasted no time initiating the special election to replace him. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/2/2017 8:02:06 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Trump Ten   3/1/2017
The Trump Ten March 1, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   There has already been a great deal of talk about the difficult campaign road ahead that Democrats face in 2018.  With having to defend 25 of 34 states in next year’s election, the minority party finds itself being f... (read more)
Last Updated: 3/1/2017 8:07:16 AM

BIPAC Daily: Polarized, or Not?   2/28/2017
Polarized, or Not? February 28, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Much is being made about President Trump’s early job approval ratings.  Almost across the board, they are low, and particularly so for a new national chief executive, which has naturally attracted media attention... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/28/2017 7:50:27 AM

BIPAC Daily: Democrats Choose   2/27/2017
Democrats Choose February 27, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Convention politics often produces interesting results, and the Democratic National Committee’s vote for chairman on Saturday proved no exception.  Former Obama Administration Labor Secretary and Justice Department... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/27/2017 8:03:03 AM

BIPAC Daily: Leading the DNC   2/24/2017
Leading the DNC February 24, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Democratic National Committee convened in Atlanta yesterday, and before the meeting adjourns on Saturday evening the 447-member conclave will elect a new party chairman. -   - Eight activists, including a former... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/24/2017 8:02:03 AM

BIPAC Daily: New Wisconsin Senate Data   2/23/2017
New Wisconsin Senate Data February 23, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The 2018 Senate Democrats have the same problem as last year’s Senate Republicans.  That is, the Dems must protect too many seats in the coming election, which obviously diminishes opportunities for gains.... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/23/2017 7:53:19 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Next Special   2/22/2017
The Next Special February 22, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Former Congressman Mick Mulvaney’s (R-Lancaster/Rock Hill) resignation officially launches the fourth US House special election, as individuals are now formally becoming candidates.  Though Gov. Henry McMaster... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/22/2017 8:58:04 AM

BIPAC Daily: First GA-6 Poll   2/21/2017
First GA-6 Poll February 21, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Many political analysts and observers have predicted that the northern Atlanta suburban special election to replace Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price will be th... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/23/2017 10:45:57 AM

BIPAC Daily: Duffy Won’t Go; SC-5 Special   2/17/2017
Duffy Won’t Go; SC-5 Special February 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   WI-Senate -   - The man commonly viewed as the most likely opponent to first-term Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year won’t run.  Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wausau) released a statement... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/17/2017 7:35:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: Understanding What Happened   2/16/2017
Understanding What Happened February 16, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Now that the 2016 presidential election result has been dissected into congressional districts, we have the ability to understand just how Donald Trump scored his upset presidential win.  Pennsylvania was one... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/22/2017 10:42:28 AM

BIPAC Daily: Specials Update   2/15/2017
Specials Update February 15, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   News is breaking in three of the impending special congressional elections: -   - GA-6 -   - In Georgia, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) has scheduled the special election to replace newly confirmed Health and Human... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/15/2017 7:44:13 AM

BIPAC Daily: Flake Still Trailing   2/14/2017
Flake Still Trailing February 14, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Just after the November 8th election, Remington Research conducted a Republican voters’ statewide Arizona survey (11/15-16; 1,122 likely 2018 Republican primary voters via automated response device), as we previousl... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/14/2017 7:45:40 AM

BIPAC Daily: Early National Report Card   2/13/2017
Early National Report Card February 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Morning Consult and the Politico publication joined forces to conduct a major national tracking survey that begins to understand how Americans are viewing the current political state.  The polling period occurr... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/13/2017 7:57:27 AM

BIPAC Daily: KS-4: Republicans Choose   2/10/2017
KS-4: Republicans Choose February 10, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The 126-member 4th District Republican Congressional Committee met in Wichita last night to choose a nominee with the objective of keeping the vacant US House seat under GOP control.  CIA Director Mike Pompe... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/10/2017 7:43:49 AM

BIPAC Daily: NRCC Releases 2018 Targets   2/9/2017
NRCC Releases 2018 Targets February 9, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   In late January the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released their list of 59 current Republican House targets, and now the GOP committee leadership has countered in publicizing their own group of... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/9/2017 7:53:27 AM

BIPAC Daily: Special Elections Getting Underway   2/8/2017
Special Elections Getting Underway February 8, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   KS-4   The special election cycle officially launches tomorrow evening, as Kansas’ 4th District Republican Committee will convene for purposes of choosing a nominee to compete in the April... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/8/2017 8:03:36 AM

BIPAC Daily: Sen. Mitt Romney?   2/7/2017
Sen. Mitt Romney? February 7, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   According to the Salt Lake City Deseret News, former Republican presidential nominee and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is not yet ruling out a potential 2018 Utah Senate race.   Jump-starting the speculation is... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/7/2017 8:35:14 AM

BIPAC Daily: Perriello a Factor   2/6/2017
Perriello a Factor February 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   A new Christopher Newport University poll (1/15-28; 1,002 VA registered voters; 464 self-identified Democrats and Lean Independents; 418 self-identified Republicans and Lean Independents) finds weakness in Virginia Lt. Gov.... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/7/2017 8:39:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: America's Ideology   2/3/2017
America's Ideology February 3, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Gallup organization conducted a month long poll (1/20-30) of almost 200,000 respondents (177,788 US adults) to determine where America stands ideologically.  They find that the country still leans decidedly to t... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/3/2017 7:34:48 AM

BIPAC Daily: Specials: Dems Reeling   2/2/2017
Specials: Dems Reeling February 2, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Soon we will be moving fully into special election season and the Democrats have already been dealt some early bad breaks, but not from Republicans. -   - In the four special elections created because Presiden... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/2/2017 7:34:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Kansas in Flux   2/1/2017
Kansas in Flux February 1, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The state of Kansas is heading for a period of major political upheaval both in the state house and within their congressional delegation.  -   - In addition to CIA Director Mike Pompeo’s vacant 4th Di... (read more)
Last Updated: 2/1/2017 7:39:51 AM

BIPAC Daily: Democrats Playing Offense   1/31/2017
Democrats Playing Offense January 31, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), in a memo from Executive Director Dan Sena, yesterday released their first 2018 target list of who they believe are the vulnerable Republican US House members.&n... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/31/2017 8:06:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Plans   1/30/2017
Senate Plans January 30, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Orrin Hatch (R-UT), two of the Senate’s most elderly members, were at the top of the potential retirement list in 2018.  But, as we mentioned in Updates during the preceding ten days, b... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/30/2017 7:50:21 AM

BIPAC Daily: Poll: Hatch Reportedly Languishing   1/27/2017
Poll: Hatch Reportedly Languishing January 27, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Five years ago, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) publicly stated during his tense sixth re-election effort that he was running his last campaign.  With the current term now beginning to approach what might be the... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/27/2017 8:50:00 AM

BIPAC Daily: Two Kansas Races: Retirement & Special   1/26/2017
Two Kansas Races: Retirement & Special January 26, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   KS-2 -   - It was expected that five-term Kansas Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka) would not seek re-election in 2018, but her actual announcement contained a surprise.  Most politicos beli... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/26/2017 7:37:31 AM

BIPAC Daily: Election 2016: Urban vs. Rural   1/25/2017
Election 2016: Urban vs. Rural January 25, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Now that the election returns are official and divided into congressional district and county totals, we can now see exactly how the presidential election unfolded. -   - It became clear from early Ele... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/25/2017 7:39:21 AM

BIPAC Daily: Election 2016: How the Electoral College Won   1/24/2017
Election 2016: How the Electoral College Won January 24, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Over the past few decades we have witnessed a great debate in American politics involving the founding fathers’ implementation of the Electoral College to govern the presidential election.&nbs... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/24/2017 7:37:30 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Cross-Districts   1/23/2017
The Cross-Districts January 23, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   With all but North Carolina now publishing their final county returns – a glitch in absentee balloting still remains unsolved, so the final Tar Heel State numbers are not yet officially reported – we can now loo... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/24/2017 7:37:43 AM

BIPAC Daily: South Carolina's Political Conundrum   1/19/2017
South Carolina's Political Conundrum January 19, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Gov. Nikki Haley’s (R) confirmation hearing yesterday to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and expected quick Senate approval vote will ignite a rather unique South Carolina constitutiona... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/19/2017 7:56:20 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Hillary Comeback?   1/18/2017
A Hillary Comeback? January 18, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   On the eve of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration, we again hear talk about a potential political campaign involving the woman he defeated in November, former Secretary of State Hillary Clin... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/18/2017 8:01:28 AM

BIPAC Daily: More Virginia News   1/17/2017
More Virginia News January 17, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Last week, we wrote an Update that quoted a December Public Opinion Strategies survey testing the Virginia gubernatorial candidates (12/11-13; 500 VA likely voters; Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) 43% - ex-RNC chairman Ed Gillesp... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/17/2017 8:03:57 AM

BIPAC Daily: Gillespie vs. Northam: New Polling   1/13/2017
Gillespie vs. Northam: New Polling January 13, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   It’s hard to believe, but already we are not particularly far from a series of new election campaigns taking center stage.  In addition to the five special congressional... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/13/2017 7:53:09 AM

BIPAC Daily: Open Seat News - Part II   1/12/2017
Open Seat News - Part II January 12, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Continuing our review of the eight known open House districts, today’s Update concludes with the final four seats either headed to a special election or whose electorate will choose a new incumbent in the regular... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/12/2017 7:42:25 AM

BIPAC Daily: Open Seat News   1/11/2017
Open Seat News January 11, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   With the new Congress scarcely a week old, we already know of eight open House districts.  Assuming all of President-Elect Trump’s cabinet appointees coming from the House are confirmed for their new positions, t... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/11/2017 7:48:43 AM

BIPAC Daily: Scanning the Country - Part V - TN-WY   1/9/2017
Scanning the Country - Part V - TN-WY January 9, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Completing our five-part political journey around America, we now look at the final nine states, examining whether certain members from the various federal delegations are looking to retire and/or seek a di... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/9/2017 8:30:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: Scanning the Country - Part IV - NC-SD   1/6/2017
Scanning the Country - Part IV - NC-SD January 6, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Continuing our five-part political journey around America, we now look at the next nine states, examining whether certain members from the various federal delegations are looking to retire and/or seek a di... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/6/2017 7:58:44 AM

BIPAC Daily: Scanning the Country - Part III - MN-NY   1/5/2017
Scanning the Country - Part III - MN-NY January 5, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Continuing our five-part political journey around America, we now look at the next set of states, examining whether certain members from the various federal delegations are looking to retire and/or seek a... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/5/2017 8:44:25 AM

BIPAC Daily: Scanning the Country – Part II   1/4/2017
Scanning the Country – Part II January 4, 2017 By: Jim Ellis   Continuing on our political journey around America, we now look at the next set of states, examining whether members from the various federal delegations may be looking to retire and/or seek a different offi... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/4/2017 8:24:31 AM

BIPAC Daily: Scanning the Country - Part I   1/3/2017
Scanning the Country - Part I By: Jim Ellis January 3, 2017   Embarking upon the new year, which we hope proves happy for all, it is a good time to spend this first week setting the political stage for the coming election cycle.  Today, we cover the first ten states, rep... (read more)
Last Updated: 1/3/2017 8:12:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Closing the Book   12/23/2016
Closing the Book December 23, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Best wishes for a wonderful holiday season.  This will be the final update of the 2016 election cycle.  We will return at the beginning of 2017.     With the final election numbers now reported in... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/23/2016 9:19:04 AM

BIPAC Daily: Gaining and Losing   12/22/2016
Gaining and Losing December 22, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Yesterday, the Census Bureau released its population estimates for the period beginning July 1, 2015 through July 1, 2016 and reports some interesting data. Utah had the largest percentage growth (2.02%) of any state during... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/22/2016 9:22:43 AM

BIPAC Daily: One More Special   12/21/2016
One More Special December 21, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   President-Elect Donald Trump’s selection of four-term South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster) as Office of Management and Budget Director adds one more special congressional election to the growing number of... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/21/2016 10:28:50 AM

BIPAC Daily: Hamilton Electors Crushed   12/20/2016
Hamilton Electors Crushed December 20, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   According to state Electoral College counts from yesterday’s announced votes, it appears Donald Trump has officially won the Presidency. The secret ballot results will be read before the Congress on January... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/20/2016 12:48:07 PM

BIPAC Daily: Electoral College Vote - Still No End   12/19/2016
Electoral College Vote - Still No End December 19, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Today is the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December after a national election, hence the Electoral College convenes and will cast their official votes for the offices of President an... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/19/2016 9:16:29 PM

BIPAC Daily: Yes, No & Maybe   12/16/2016
Yes, Maybe & No December 16, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   We haven’t even entered the new year yet, and already a rather long list is formulating of individuals either announcing candidacies for other offices, saying they won’t run for certain positions, or r... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/19/2016 9:15:26 PM

BIPAC Daily: Another Special Looms   12/15/2016
Another Special Looms December 15, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Already, calling potentially five special elections may be necessary even before the new 115th Congress convenes. Now, a sixth is on the political horizon now that Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT-AL) has been nominated as... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/19/2016 9:14:24 PM

BIPAC Daily: Special Elections Mounting   12/14/2016
Special Elections Mounting December 14, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Just as the 2016 election cycle ended with the Louisiana run-off elections last Saturday, a new round of voting is about to begin.   President-Elect Donald Trump’s selection of Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/14/2016 9:33:55 AM

BIPAC Daily: 2016 Electoral Quick Facts   12/13/2016
2016 Electoral Quick Facts December 13, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   On the day that the states are reporting their official results to the Electoral College, it is an appropriate time to analyze some of the more interesting results.    In the presidential contest,... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/13/2016 8:40:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Bayou Sweep   12/12/2016
A Bayou Sweep December 12, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Republicans completed the 2016 election cycle with a sweep of Saturday’s Louisiana run-off races.  In the US Senate race, state Treasurer John Kennedy (R) easily defeated Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/12/2016 9:15:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: Finally: Current LA Polling Data   12/9/2016
Finally: Current LA Polling Data December 9, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   There has been a paucity of reliable polling data for the upcoming Louisiana run-off elections tomorrow, but finally the Trafalgar Group and the University of New Orleans just released some fresh numbers. &... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/14/2016 9:35:47 AM

BIPAC Daily: CA-34: The Battle Begins; IA Governor   12/8/2016
CA-34: The Battle Begins; IA Governor December 8, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles) has yet to resign his seat after Gov. Jerry Brown (D) officially appointed him to replace Senator-Elect Kamala Harris (D) as California’s Attorney General, but alr... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/8/2016 10:31:44 AM

BIPAC Daily: More on Louisiana   12/7/2016
More on Louisiana December 7, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   LA-Senate   A new, but questionable, poll was released from Tulane University covering the open Louisiana Senate run-off campaign to be decided this Saturday.  The poll (11/8-18; 960 LA adults) finds state T... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/7/2016 9:55:50 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Electoral College   12/6/2016
The Electoral College December 6, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Is the Electoral College doomed, or coming into a new sphere of relevance?  As we know, Hillary Clinton outpolled Donald Trump in the popular vote, now by some 2.3 million people as the totals are becoming finalized,... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/6/2016 10:08:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Last Campaigns   12/5/2016
The Last Campaigns December 5, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The marathon 2016 election cycle will come to a close on Saturday with the Louisiana run-off elections.  The US Senate race and two congressional elections were forced to secondary contests, and Republicans appear poise... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/5/2016 9:21:42 AM

BIPAC Daily: Picking Dem Senators; Rep. Becerra   12/2/2016
Picking Dem Senators; Rep. Becerra December 2, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Donald Trump may be looking to find cabinet members who bring him immediate tangible policy and political benefits.  A new prospective appointee, if chosen, would even increase the President-Elect’... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/2/2016 8:57:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: Alabama Strange   12/1/2016
Alabama Strange December 1, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) is the US Attorney General-Designate as is common knowledge, and upon his confirmation to the position a situation filled with rather unique political intrigue will take center stage in Alabama’s... (read more)
Last Updated: 12/1/2016 7:48:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: Elections & Aftermath   11/30/2016
Elections & Aftermath November 30, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Today, House Democrats will caucus and choose their leadership team for the 115th Congress.  The major contested battle features a race for Minority Leader, the first time that Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-12) has be... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/30/2016 9:01:19 AM

BIPAC Daily: Political Overtime - Part II   11/29/2016
Political Overtime - Part II November 29, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Aside from the two Louisiana run-off elections on Saturday, all of the US House campaigns have now been projected.  As expected, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA-49) yesterday was confirmed as the winner of his re-ele... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/29/2016 9:03:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: Political Overtime - Part I   11/28/2016
Political Overtime - Part I November 28, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   One campaign remains officially uncalled, the California congressional race between Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista) and challenger Doug Applegate (D), a retired Marine Corps Colonel.  Three more, the Louisiana run... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/28/2016 8:52:57 AM

BIPAC Daily: Setting the Record Straight   11/23/2016
Setting the Record Straight November 23, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   On the eve of celebrating Thanksgiving, it is a good time to correct some misconceptions about the 2016 election. -   - The media has long reported that voter participation levels dropped below the most... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/23/2016 9:39:17 AM

BIPAC Daily: Bera Wins; Issa Close; More Jockeying   11/22/2016
Bera Wins; Issa Close; More Jockeying November 22, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   CA-7 -   - The Associated Press yesterday projected Rep. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/ Sacramento) the winner in the hotly contested 7th District campaign, even though there are approximately 43,000 b... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/22/2016 9:01:12 AM

BIPAC Daily: Louisiana Run-off Numbers   11/21/2016
Louisiana Run-off Numbers November 21, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   With the December 10th run-off election fast approaching for the open Bayou State US Senate race and two congressional campaigns, new data has been released into the public domain.    The resp... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/21/2016 9:00:19 AM

BIPAC Daily: Outstanding Races   11/18/2016
Outstanding Races November 18. 2016 By: Jim Ellis   California’s two uncalled congressional races are still not complete because of a counting process moving at what feels like a glacial pace. -   - In Sacramento County’s 7th District, Rep. Ami Bera (D-... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/18/2016 9:02:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Jockeying for Position   11/17/2016
Jockeying for Position November 17, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Already, there is a lot of talk about various Senators considering races for Governor in their respective states, while at least one term-limited Governor publicly muses about running for Senate.   With 38... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/17/2016 8:23:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: GOP Unites; 1st Open Seat   11/16/2016
GOP Unites; 1st Open Seat November 16, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Though the media has obsessed over stories about internal Republican skirmishes for the last four years, the House GOP Conference came together yesterday in a strong show of unity just as the Democrats begin to see d... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/16/2016 8:29:37 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Uncalled Races   11/15/2016
The Uncalled Races November 15, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The state of Michigan, in the presidential race, and both CA-7 and CA-49 remain uncalled.  The reasons for the long delay in finalizing the tallies are detailed below.   The unofficial final Michigan elect... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/15/2016 9:00:25 AM

BIPAC Daily: The State Picture   11/14/2016
The State Picture November 14, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   While there are no significant weekend changes in the uncalled federal races: Michigan remains outstanding in the presidential race (Trump ahead 47.6 - 47.3%), along with two California congressional campaigns (Rep. Ami Bera... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/14/2016 8:58:30 AM

BIPAC Daily:How Trump Won Florida   11/11/2016
How Trump Won Florida November 11, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   It was often discussed that Florida is the most important state on the Republican presidential map.  Because the only big state that Republicans can count on is Texas, the generic GOP nominee must win Florida becaus... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/11/2016 8:13:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: More Races Called   11/10/2016
More Races Called Novermber 11, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   As outstanding and absentee votes continue to be tallied, more races are being decided.  Yesterday's biggest development was concluding the year long toss-up battle between New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and G... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/10/2016 3:43:40 PM

BIPAC Daily: Today's the Day   11/8/2016
Today's the Day November 8, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   At long last, the 2016 election cycle draws to a close this evening, since we have finally reached Election Day.  -   - The final polls show ending momentum for Hillary Clinton.  Ten surveys reported re... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/8/2016 10:26:53 AM

BIPAC Daily: Late Breakers   11/7/2016
Late Breakers November 7, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   One day before the election, a late surge in two races adds even more drama to the already tight array of US Senate contests. -   - Weekend polling suggests that a pair of campaigns, which for months looked to be heade... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/7/2016 8:16:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: Still Not Over   11/4/2016
Still Not Over November 4, 2016  By Jim Ellis    Though the Granite State of New Hampshire possesses only four electoral votes, it can potentially end as the most critical entity in Tuesday’s presidential election, at least according to Donald Trump’s co... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/4/2016 3:18:39 PM

BIPAC Daily: House Becoming Clearer   11/3/2016
House Becoming Clearer November 3, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The late turnout trends, as influenced greatly by how the presidential race is closing, may well be increasing Republican/right-of-center voter participation.  If so, this will have great effect upon the House races... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/3/2016 8:45:59 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Still in Limbo   11/2/2016
Senate Still in Limbo November 2, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Entering the last week of campaigning, the Democrats are on the cusp of re-claiming the Senate majority they lost in 2014, but virtually no competitive outcome is yet secure.  -   - The latest Clinton emai... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/2/2016 9:11:22 AM

BIPAC Daily: Is It Possible?   11/1/2016
Is It Possible? November 1, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The latest reverberations from a potentially renewed Hillary Clinton FBI investigation are apparently helping to cause a severe tightening in the presidential race.  -   - The latest polls, and there have been s... (read more)
Last Updated: 11/1/2016 7:49:27 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Twist or Turn?   10/31/2016
Another Twist or Turn? October 31, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Hillary Clinton appeared to be a lock to win the Presidency less than a week ago, but yet another email scandal has potentially altered the outcome.  This time, the situation involves disgraced former Rep. Anthony W... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/31/2016 8:27:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Early Voting: Definitive?   10/28/2016
Early Voting: Definitive? October 28, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Thirty-seven states and the District of Columbia have some form of what is commonly called “no excuse” early voting, and some of those release the number and type of ballots being returned well before Elec... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/28/2016 8:35:17 AM

BIPAC Daily: Nevada: Who Knows?   10/27/2016
Nevada: Who Knows? October 27, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Nevada has proven itself as one of the most critical swing states in the 2016 election.  When the presidential race was closer, carrying the 6-electoral vote Silver State was a staple towards constructing a potential Do... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/31/2016 8:27:56 AM

BIPAC Daily: NC & NH: Tables Turning   10/26/2016
NC & NH: Tables Turning October 26, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   It is very possible that the US Senate majority, if not the presidential race, will be decided when the hard fought races in New Hampshire and North Carolina conclude.    In the past two weeks, New... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/26/2016 8:59:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: Pressure Point Races   10/25/2016
Pressure Point Races October 25, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   It is widely believed that Republicans will keep the House majority in the November 8th election, though Democrats will gain seats.  Determining the party division change level is a point of conjecture, however. ... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/25/2016 2:18:23 PM

BIPAC Daily: More Senate Movement   10/24/2016
More Senate Movement October 24, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Entering the final two weeks of campaigning, the Senate majority is still in limbo even though Hillary Clinton is breaking away in the presidential campaign. -   - Republicans hope to hold the Senate largely by... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/25/2016 2:18:30 PM

BIPAC Daily: The Latest Trends   10/21/2016
The Latest Trends October 21, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   With the presidential race appearing just about wrapped up, the Senate races are taking the center stage for competitiveness.  Some of the races are changing.   The first section identifies competitive races... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/25/2016 2:18:03 PM

BIPAC Daily: The Money Factor   10/20/2016
The Money Factor October 20, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Breaking information is now allowing us to categorize the recent rhetoric from strategists’ in both parties. The newly released Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports and accompanying media spending fig... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/20/2016 8:07:40 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Senate Reset   10/19/2016
The Senate Reset October 19, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Now inside of three weeks before the election and hearing leaders of both parties claim they could control the Senate in the next Congress, it’s time for an overview about where the candidates actually stand.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/19/2016 8:48:37 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Overtime   10/18/2016
Senate Overtime October 18, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Most projections suggest that the 2016 US Senate election cycle will end in a partisan division close to a 50-50 tie between Democrats and Republicans.  If true, a new political poll suggests that the final determining fac... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/18/2016 8:35:40 AM

BIPAC Daily: It's Already Beginning   10/17/2016
It's Already Beginning October 17, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Last week we predicted that Senate and House Republicans would soon begin distancing themselves from Donald Trump and start making the argument that voters should not invest all political power with unpopular Hillary... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/17/2016 8:58:03 AM

BIPAC Daily: Differing Data   10/14/2016
Differing Data October 14, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The presidential map has swung significantly toward Hillary Clinton in the past week, which is of little surprise considering the revelations surrounding Donald Trump.  If the election were today, our count projects Ms. Cli... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/14/2016 8:39:21 AM

BIPAC Daily: WI: Another Look; MO: Telling Info   10/13/2016
WI: Another Look; MO: Telling Info October 13, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Wisconsin -   - It’s likely that strategists in both the Democratic and Republican Senate campaign committees who took the unusual step of canceling their media buys in the Wisconsin race are... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/13/2016 8:23:27 AM

BIPAC Daily: Predicting a Wave   10/12/2016
Predicting a Wave October 12, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Democrats are attempting to get atop of what they perceive as a growing wave in response to Donald Trump’s potential collapse, but they are missing several components necessary to creating such an outcome.   ... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/12/2016 8:49:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: Wisconsin Shock Poll   10/11/2016
Wisconsin Shock Poll October 11, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Last week, we reported on both parties canceling their Wisconsin Senate race media buys leading all to deduce that challenger Russ Feingold (D) has an insurmountable lead for incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) to overcome.&nbs... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/11/2016 8:21:39 AM

BIPAC Daily: What now?   10/10/2016
What now? October 10, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The weekend Donald Trump revelations have sent the Republican camp scrambling, yet again.  Before last night’s debate: at least a score of GOP officeholders and party leaders had withdrawn their support for Trump, the... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/10/2016 8:45:40 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Real Races   10/7/2016
The Real Races October 7, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   This week, we’ve been concentrating on how the major party committees and principal outside organizations are spending their advertising money, and what their dollar commitments mean in terms of forecasting wins and losses.... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/7/2016 8:42:32 AM

BIPAC Daily: Bera and Issa   10/6/2016
Bera and Issa October 6, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Competitive action is occurring in several California House districts, but new data has just broke suggesting two House incumbents are headed for a tough finish.   Back in 2014, the race between Sacramento Cou... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/6/2016 8:19:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: House Polls: Developing Trends   10/5/2016
House Polls: Developing Trends October 5, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   A number of important House polls have already come into the public domain this week and, together, they provide us some clues about what we can expect in November.    New surveys across the coun... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/5/2016 8:17:56 AM

BIPAC Daily: Four Races Appear Done   10/4/2016
Four Races Appear Done October 4, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The two political parties continue to make financial decisions with regard to Senate race funding. More became public yesterday, as both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the National Republican... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/4/2016 8:36:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: Follow the Money   10/3/2016
Follow the Money October 3, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The Wesleyan Media Project released their campaign advertising study for the 2016 election cycle and, focusing on their Senate data that Kantar Media/CMAG compiled, the information gives us strong clues as to which races are th... (read more)
Last Updated: 10/3/2016 8:59:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: Out of Control Polls   9/30/2016
Out of Control Polls September 30, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   There likely has not been a Senate race polled more extensively than the North Carolina contest between Sen. Richard Burr (R) and former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D), but this week’s survey set literally defies expl... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/30/2016 8:19:53 AM

BIPAC Daily: Key House Races; Key Polls   9/29/2016
Key House Races; Key Polls September 29, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Now that all political contests are in full campaign mode, we can report new numbers on five of the most hotly contested House race conversion opportunities for both parties.   AZ-1   One... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/29/2016 8:47:42 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Outliers   9/28/2016
The Outliers September 28, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Early on debate day, Gravis Marketing made news with the release of their Minnesota poll.  But, their companion effort in North Carolina is equally noteworthy.  Both illustrate trends inconsistent with all other pollst... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/28/2016 8:52:56 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Centennial Swing   9/27/2016
A Centennial Swing September 27, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Even before last night’s first debate was complete, we began seeing some political movement particularly in one critical battleground state. -   - In the 21st Century, the states of Florida, Ohio, North Ca... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/27/2016 8:12:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: Conflicting Signals   9/26/2016
Conflicting Signals September 26. 2016 By: Jim Ellis   As the presidential candidates finish their final preparations for tonight’s debate, other political news is also surfacing.  In three House races, recent conflicting polling data in two and the respective part... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/26/2016 7:43:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: New State Data   9/23/2016
New State Data September 23, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   While the national polls continue to yield a basic tie between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the state totals are the real determining factor and we have significant new data from key targets this week.  -   -... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/23/2016 7:43:58 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Last Senate Race   9/22/2016
The Last Senate Race September 22, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The open Louisiana Senate campaign has not yet drawn much national attention, but such appears to be changing and in a big way. A new poll underscores just how close the contest is getting in the midst of surprising... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/22/2016 7:49:53 AM

BIPAC Daily: Dueling Rifles   9/21/2016
Dueling Rifles September 21, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Within the last week, the gun issue took center stage in the Missouri Senate campaign, and the candidates’ ad war is now drawing serious national attention.    Democratic nominee Jason Kander caused a s... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/21/2016 7:38:58 AM

BIPAC Daily: AZ Winner; Key House Polls   9/20/2016
AZ Winner; Key House Polls September 20, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   AZ-5 -   - The August 30th Arizona primary gave us the closest congressional primary of this entire election cycle.  At the evening’s end, former Go.Daddy.com executive Christine Jones appeare... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/20/2016 8:08:51 AM

BIPAC Daily: Reuters: Trump Up In Electoral College   9/19/2016
Reuters: Trump Up In Electoral College September 19, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The Reuters/Ipsos “States of the Nation” project finds Donald Trump taking a surprising 243-242 electoral vote lead over Hillary Clinton, but are the individual state projections reliable?&n... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/19/2016 7:49:52 AM

BIPAC Daily: Detecting a Senate Swing   9/16/2016
Detecting a Senate Swing September 16, 2016 By: Jim Ellis - During the past two days a series of new independent polls were released in key Senate states and, for the most part, the results portend a clear shift toward Republican candidates.  These results transforming into a cu... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/16/2016 8:26:00 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Final Results   9/15/2016
The Final Results September 15, 2016 By: Jime Ellis   The day after two very close New Hampshire Republican primaries were left with remaining votes to count, both received closure.  -   - In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Frank Guinta (R-Manchester) bar... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/15/2016 10:08:27 AM

BIPAC Daily: New Hampshire's Wild Ride; DE, RI   9/14/2016
New Hampshire's Wild Ride; DE, RI September 14, 2016 By: Jim Ellis - Last night’s Granite State primary featured a pair of very close Republican races, one involving an incumbent.  It is unclear if either the Governor’s contest or the 1st Congressional District r... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/14/2016 8:17:58 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Last Primary Day   9/13/2016
The Last Primary Day September 13, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Today marks the end of the congressional primary season as voters in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island go to the polls to choose the 2016 cycle’s final House and Senate nominees.  -   - Dela... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/13/2016 8:35:09 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate: Critical States; Critical Polls   9/12/2016
Senate: Critical States; Critical Polls September 12, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   New polls were just released in states that will define which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. -   - Five polls, four from Quinnipiac University, are now in the public domain... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/12/2016 8:36:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: State by State   9/8/2016
State by State September 8, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The Washington Post just released their Survey Monkey online polling data for all 50 states.  It gives us our first complete look at the nation’s political predisposition on a state-by-state basis through August and... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/8/2016 7:33:24 AM

BIPAC Daily: Stunning Arizona Development   9/7/2016
Stunning Arizona Development September 7 , 2016 By: Jim Ellis   In last Tuesday’s Arizona primary, it appeared that former GoDaddy.com executive Christine Jones had all but clinched the Republican nomination in the state’s open 5thCongressional District.  Yes... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/7/2016 8:32:06 AM

BIPAC Daily: House Races: The Florida Bellwether   9/6/2016
House Races: The Florida Bellwether September 6, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The general election campaigns are just about set.  Now into September, just two primary days remain (Sept. 8th: MA; Sept. 13th: DE, NH, RI) and only in New Hampshire’s 1st District - a seat that... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/6/2016 8:41:18 AM

BIPAC Daily: The September Reset   9/2/2016
The September Reset September 2, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Labor Day is always viewed as the traditional general election initiation benchmark for presidential campaigns, so it is important to see where the candidates stand now that we have reached this point in time.  &n... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/2/2016 8:50:21 AM

BIPAC Daily: McCain: A Bigger Target   9/1/2016
McCain: A Bigger Target September 1, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   It is clear that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is in a more precarious political position the day after his primary than the day before.  On Tuesday, the veteran Senator recorded only a 52-39% victory over his top chall... (read more)
Last Updated: 9/1/2016 8:16:51 AM

BIPAC Daily: Rep. Brown Loses; McCain, Rubio Win; All Others   8/31/2016
Rep. Brown Loses; McCain, Rubio Win; All Others August 31, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Senate -   - Veteran Sen. John McCain (R) won his re-nomination campaign last night in Arizona, but with a lesser majority than expected.  McCain topped former state Sen. Kelli War... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/31/2016 8:05:00 AM

BIPAC Daily: Primary Preview - Part II   8/30/2016
Primary Preview - Part II August 30, 2016 By: Jim Ellis - Today, we cover the second half of the competitive Florida campaigns, with just a word about Arizona.  The Washington Post ran an article yesterday chronicling Sen. John McCain as being “in the fight of his life.&rd... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/30/2016 8:30:07 AM

BIPAC Daily: Primary Preview – Part I   8/29/2016
Primary Preview – Part I August 29, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Arizona and Florida voters go to the polls tomorrow in what has become the most important of the late summer primaries.   Today, we cover Arizona and half of the competitive Florida campaigns.  T... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/29/2016 7:59:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Historical Perspective   8/26/2016
The Historical Perspective August 26, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Everyday we see new polls that measure Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s national standing and their status in some states, but how does the 2016 race compare to the others from the past 40 years during this sa... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/26/2016 8:51:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Topsy Turvy Florida   8/25/2016
Topsy Turvy Florida August 25, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Yesterday, we reported about a Florida shock poll from St. Leo University that projected Donald Trump to be lagging 14 percentage points behind Hillary Clinton, but already the situation has changed.    Now... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/25/2016 8:45:26 AM

BIPAC Daily: Trumps' Troubling Florida Poll   8/24/2016
Trumps' Troubling Florida Poll August 24, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The St. Leo University Polling Institute dropped a shock poll on the Donald Trump campaign yesterday, but the numbers appear inconsistent when comparing to other available data.  -   - The Flor... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/24/2016 8:18:21 AM

BIPAC Daily: Emerging Senate Trends   8/23/2016
Emerging Senate Trends August 23, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   While national pollsters are detecting a tightening presidential race, the US Senate campaigns are also beginning to reveal some potentially defining trends. -   - Safe R & D -   - Of the 34 in-c... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/23/2016 8:20:22 AM

BIPAC Daily: New Wasserman Schultz Poll   8/22/2016
New Wasserman Schultz Poll August 22, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The Democratic National Convention controversy surrounding former national party chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz has dissipated, but her Democratic congressional primary battle against law professor Tim Canova is runni... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/22/2016 8:16:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: Rs Gaining; Bayh Up   8/18/2016
Rs Gaining; Bayh Up August 18, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Monmouth University (8/13-16; 403 IN likely voters; 351 drawn from registered voters list; 52 random digit dial cell phone responses) released their new Indiana voter survey and the results report varying degrees of Republic... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/18/2016 8:27:06 AM

BIPAC Daily:Cheney Results; AK Primary, Too   8/17/2016
Cheney Results; AK Primary, Too August 17, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   WY-AL -   - Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President, US Defense Secretary, and five-term Wyoming Congressman Dick Cheney, successfully captured the open seat Republican congressional nomination l... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/17/2016 8:42:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Johnson, Stein Likely Out   8/16/2016
Johnson, Stein Likely Out August 16, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The Commission on Presidential Debates has now provided more specific criteria pertaining to who will be invited to participate in the four presidential and vice presidential debates that are scheduled to begin Septemb... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/16/2016 8:19:23 AM

BIPAC Daily: Hawaii Nominates; AK, WY to Follow   8/15/2016
Hawaii Nominates; AK, WY to Follow August 15, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Hawaii’s primary voters went to the polls over the weekend to nominate their state and federal general election candidates.  -   - Sen. Brian Schatz (D) easily won re-nomination from the... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/15/2016 7:45:13 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Trends   8/12/2016
Senate Trends August 12, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   A plethora of new swing state Senate polls have been conducted and already released in August, and both parties are getting some good news in specific races. -   - The two states ripe for electing a Senator from a diffe... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/12/2016 8:46:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: Trump Trends   8/11/2016
Trump Trends August 11, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Despite major media coverage to the contrary, Donald Trump’s polling standing in comparison to Hillary Clinton appears to be improving nationally, and in certain key states.  Other surveys point to Ms. Clinton sustaining... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/11/2016 8:03:02 AM

BIPAC Daily: Ryan Crushes; Other Results   8/10/2016
Ryan Crushes; Other Results August 10, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   House Speaker Paul Ryan recorded an 84-16% landslide victory against Republican primary opponent Paul Nehlen last night in southern Wisconsin.  Nehlen was on his way to approaching the $1 million mark in campaig... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/10/2016 8:39:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Ryan Primary Today; 4 States Vote   8/9/2016
Ryan Primary Today; 4 States Vote August 9, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Wisconsin -   - House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI-1) stands for re-nomination today and is expected to win easily.  Businessman Paul Nehlen (R), a first-time candidate who makes immigration and trade... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/9/2016 8:42:03 AM

BIPAC Daily: Signs of Tightening   8/8/2016
Signs of Tightening August 8, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The latest presidential polls are providing new sweeping numbers that again suggest the race is becoming more fluid.  Four polls were released with sampling periods ending August 2 through August 6, producing very differ... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/8/2016 8:32:04 AM

BIPAC Daily: Tennessee Primary Results   8/5/2016
Tennessee Primary Results August 5, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Volunteer State voters went to the polls in their unique Thursday primary yesterday to choose congressional and state office nominees.  The evening featured two of the most watched congressional races in the state,... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/5/2016 8:38:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: Tennessee Primary Today: Another Upset?   8/4/2016
Tennessee Primary Today: Another Upset? August 4, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The country’s only Thursday primary takes place today in the Volunteer State of Tennessee.  No US Senate race is on the ballot there this year, but competition exists within the House delegation... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/4/2016 8:57:05 AM

BIPAC Daily: Huelskamp Loses; Full Primary Re-cap   8/3/2016
Huelskamp Loses; Full Primary Re-cap August 3, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Voters in four states went to the polls yesterday and the primary evening’s top news featured western Kansas Republicans unseating their three-term Freedom Caucus Congressman.    Rep.... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/3/2016 9:03:06 AM

BIPAC Daily: Hillary's Bounce   8/2/2016
Hillary's Bounce August 2nd, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis   The national post-convention polls are quickly being reported into the public domain and, as time progresses from the weekend into the beginning of this new week, Hillary Clinton’s advantage increases. &nbs... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/2/2016 8:59:51 AM

BIPAC Daily: Primary Preview   8/1/2016
Primary Preview August 1, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Tomorrow, voters in four states go the polls to choose nominees for their federal and state races.  Intra-party contests in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington will be decided.  The Tennessee primary will follow... (read more)
Last Updated: 8/1/2016 8:58:18 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Ryan Primary   7/28/2016
The Ryan Primary July 28, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis - WI-1   - House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) faces a primary challenge that is beginning to show movement, and he’s responding.  While there is little chance Mr. Ryan loses re-nomination on August 9th, his... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/28/2016 8:17:26 AM

BIPAC Daily: Holcomb Defeats Two US Reps; GA-3 Run-off Results   7/27/2016
Holcomb Defeats Two US Reps; GA-3 Run-off Results July 27, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   IN-Governor   Suddenly, the Democrats seemed well positioned to potentially claim a new Senator and Governor from normally Republican Indiana.    Yesterday, appoint... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/27/2016 8:14:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Trump Bounce   7/26/2016
The Trump Bounce July 26, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Though last week’s Republican convention had its political hiccups, Donald Trump appears to have received the bump that he and his campaign hierarchy had desired.   A series of new polls were released yesterday... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/26/2016 8:50:06 AM

BIPAC Daily: Kaine; Wasserman Schultz's Problems   7/25/2016
Kaine; Wasserman Schultz's Problems July 25, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Hillary Clinton’s choice of Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her Vice Presidential running mate became official over the weekend, and it tells us several things about her campaign.   First,... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/25/2016 8:32:08 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Other Primaries   7/22/2016
The Other Primaries July 22, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Though the presidential nomination process is just about complete, the primary season is far from finished.  With the Republican convention now in the books and the Democrats just about to begin, we take our focus away fr... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/22/2016 8:09:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: Takai Passes; VP Announcement Coming   7/21/2016
Takai Passes; VP Announcement Coming July 21, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis   HI-1   In May, freshman Rep. Mark Takai (D-Aiea/Honolulu) announced his pancreatic cancer had spread, thus preventing him from seeking a second term. Sadly, Mr. Takai, 49, succumbed to... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/21/2016 8:14:59 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Big Swings   7/20/2016
The Big Swings July 20, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   A Trump victory is also dependent upon him carrying the 22 states that have gone Republican in every presidential election of this century, and Indiana, which strayed only in 2008 when then-Sen. Barack Obama carried the Hoosier... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/20/2016 8:34:34 AM

BIPAC Daily: Obstacles Overcome: New Polls Again Close   7/19/2016
Obstacles Overcome; New Polls Again Close July 19, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   A final last gasp effort at denying Donald Trump the Republican nomination was easily slapped down, yesterday.  The Never Trump forces were dealt a crushing loss last week in the Convention Rules Com... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/19/2016 8:50:04 AM

BIPAC Daily: Hoosier Musical Chairs   7/18/2016
Hoosier Musical Chairs July 18, 2016 By: Jim Ellis - Gov. Mike Pence’s selection as Donald Trump’s Republican Vice Presidential nominee begins an unusual succession process.  Immediately, the members of the Indiana Republican Party’s State Committee must take a... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/18/2016 8:16:46 AM

BIPAC Daily: Trump’s Selection   7/15/2016
Trump’s Selection July 15, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis   Donald Trump has scheduled an announcement for some point today in New York, apparently to announce his choice of a Vice Presidential running mate.  A plethora of media reports suggest that he has selected India... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/15/2016 8:27:56 AM

BIPAC Daily: Confirmation & Conflict   7/14/2016
Confirmation & Conflict July 14, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   New just-released Senate polls either confirm or contradict other data that we covered earlier in the week.  -   - An unusual identical confirmation occurred in Iowa, where two pollsters arrived at the... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/14/2016 8:41:01 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Polling Quintet   7/13/2016
A Polling Quintet July 13, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   Five states have just reported key post 4th of July US Senate polls.  From California, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Nevada, new independent data was recorded for very important statewide races.   California ... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/13/2016 8:24:41 AM

BIPAC Daily: Hello, Good Bayh   7/12/2016
Hello, Good Bayh July 12, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis   Yesterday’s big political news saw the Democrats engineering a surprise Senate comeback.  Former Indiana Senator and Governor Evan Bayh confirmed he will now enter the Hoosier State’s open federal statewide... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/12/2016 8:19:15 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Senate Pairings   7/11/2016
The Senate Pairings July 11, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis   The US Senate campaigns have attracted a great deal of attention in this election cycle, and they are likely to gain even more as the election cycle progresses.  Along with the presidency, control of the legislative... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/11/2016 8:10:42 AM

BIPAC Daily: Pew: A Mixed-Message Poll   7/8/2016
Pew: A Mixed-Message Poll July 8, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis   The Pew Research Center for US Politics and Policy yesterday released the results of their major benchmark presidential campaign survey, and found high levels of interest matched with a very low degree of candidate... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/8/2016 7:44:41 AM

BIPAC Daily: Senate Re-Set   7/7/2016
Senate Re-Set July 7, 2016 By: Jim Ellis - Returning from the 4th of July break and preparing for the late season primaries, now is a good time to review the 2016 Senate picture: -   - Nominees -   - Alabama: Safe R -   - Sen. Richard Shelby (R)... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/7/2016 8:38:47 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Minor Influence   7/6/2016
The Minor Influence July 6, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   National polling shows a clear change in the presidential race when minor party candidates are included, but will they actually be on the ballot?   A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll (6/26-29; 1,000 US registe... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/6/2016 8:18:59 AM

BIPAC Daily: The VP Sweepstakes   7/5/2016
The VP Sweepstakes July 5, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   The media carried stories over the July 4th weekend that one or both of the presidential candidates is close to naming a running mate.  It is a virtual certainty that Donald Trump will announce first, since there is little... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/5/2016 8:37:37 AM

BIPAC Daily: Bloomberg’s Polling Report   7/1/2016
Bloomberg’s Polling Report July 1, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis   Often, people inquire about which are the most accurate pollsters within the huge volume of data being released into the political marketplace.  Bloomberg Politics reviewed the 2016 presidential pollster... (read more)
Last Updated: 7/1/2016 8:48:07 AM

BIPAC Daily: The Race Tightens, or Does It?   6/30/2016
The Race Tightens, or Does It? June 30, 2016 By: Jim Ellis   New recently released national and specific state polls are providing differing views about the presidential campaign’s current status.  Though the conclusions vary among the publicly released surveys in... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/30/2016 8:33:33 AM

BIPAC Daily: Four States Choose Nominees   6/29/2016
Four States Choose Nominees June 29, 2016 By:  Jim Ellis   Voters went to the polls to select their general election political lineups in Colorado, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah.  -   - Colorado -   - Just as El Paso County Commissioner Darryl G... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/29/2016 8:13:29 AM

BIPAC Daily: Primaries Today   6/28/2016
June 28, 2016 - Primaries Today - By Jim Ellis - Colorado -   - Sen. Michael Bennet (D) officially heads into the general election, and tonight will learn the identity of his Republican opponent.  The GOP has had nothing but trouble in finding a suitable challenger here... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/28/2016 8:54:16 AM

BIPAC Daily: Clinton Up 10; or One?   6/27/2016
June 27, 2016 Cinlton Up by 10; or 1? - By Jim Ellis   Two new national media polls were released over the weekend, and even though they were conducted over the same sampling period their conclusions are quite different.    The Washington Post-ABC News p... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/28/2016 8:55:44 AM

BIPAC Daily: A Contested Convention, After All?   6/24/2016
- June 24, 2016 - A Contested Convention, After All? - By Jim Ellis There is clear evidence that Never Trump Republican national delegates are organizing an effort to force a national convention rules change and, in effect, fully open the floor proceedings when all delegations gather i... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/27/2016 9:00:09 AM

BIPAC Daily: Florida Dominos Fall   6/23/2016
June 23, 2016 - Florida Dominos Fall - By Jim Ellis   As expected, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) yesterday officially reversed course and announced that he will file for re-election before this Friday’s candidate filing deadline. His action put in motion other political mo... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/28/2016 8:53:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: Why the Panic?   6/22/2016
June 22, 2016 - Why the Panic?  - By Jim Ellis   It is clear that most Republican insiders, and many elected delegates preparing for the national convention in Cleveland appear terror stricken over the Trump campaign's current status.  Now, a long shot move is und... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/27/2016 9:04:30 AM

BIPAC Daily: How Rubio’s Decision Affects Others   6/21/2016
- June 21, 2016 - How Rubio’s Decision Affects Others - By Jim Ellis - It appears that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will change course and run for re-election after repeatedly saying he would not. GOP leaders, fearing they would lose the seat without him, have apparently pr... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/21/2016 9:57:38 AM

BIPAC Daily: Critical State: Nevada   6/16/2016
- June 16, 2016 - Critical State: Nevada - By Jim Ellis - As we examine the 2016 political landscape, it appears that Nevada, the small four-congressional district western state of 2.8 million people, will play a defining role in electing a president, determining which party controls... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/16/2016 9:46:35 AM

BIPAC Daily: Incumbent Loss; Favorites & Upsets   6/15/2016
- June 15, 2016 - Incumbent Loss; Favorites & Upsets - By Jim Ellis - District of Columbia - In what proved to be a meaningless District of Columbia primary, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton destroyed Sen. Bernie Sanders with a 79-21% win from almost 100,000 vot... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/15/2016 10:17:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: Another Day, Another Primary Slate   6/14/2016
- June 14, 2016 - BIPAC Daily: Another Day, Another Primary Slate - By Jim Ellis - District of Columbia -   - Today marks the final presidential primary as Democrats trudge to the polls in the District of Columbia.  Forty-six Democratic delegates are at stake, 26 of wh... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/14/2016 10:19:45 AM

BIPAC Daily: General Election Preview: IA, MT, NC   6/13/2016
- June 13, 2016 - BIPAC Daily: General Election Preview – IA, MT, NC - By Jim Ellis - In addition to the California races we described in the last Update, key general election campaigns are now underway in Iowa, Montana, and North Carolina since their nominees were also cho... (read more)
Last Updated: 6/13/2016 9:57:44 AM

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Election Insights Voter Information
Employee Voter Registration Week 2017

September 25-29, 2017

Employee Voter Registration Week is an effort to make a dent in the number of unregistered citizens across the country. During this week, companies and associations will join together in an effort to encourage voter registration among private sector employees. The initiative will not tell employees how to vote or who to vote for, but instead aims to serve as a resource to help employers educate their employees about the issues that are important to their industries and provide key deadlines, voter registration, and polling location information.

For more information on Employee Voter Registration Week, visit www.EmployeesVote.com